Gilt market which had seen its best time in march-april 2025 is stuck now. Many gilt funds, LTGILTBEES especially long term ones are stuck at same rate or has given negligible 1% return in last 7 months. Also INDIA 30 year yield is also at around 2 year high even though there is no such rate increase from RBI. Then what is our gilt market antcipating? Increase in yields, decrease in price, are we expecting rate increase?
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Yields are a indicator of confidence in government to repay it’s debt. No confidence? Whales sell bonds. Yield will increase without regard to RBI rate or any fudged statistics data provided by government.
Well there IS a “rate increase from RBI”.
Specifically the rate of long-term bonds that RBI auctions.
Here’s a recent example.
The secondary markets are simply following the primary.
IMHO, none of these. The expectation is probably relatively higher investment into corporate debt and equity and less into sovereign debt.
…relative to the confidence in other non-government entities that one can lend to
and the volume of debt investment on offer from them.
more relative to other governments…
Apparently increase in yields…
There’s a clear contrast between trends of RBI repo rates and market rates.