De-dollarization gaining momentum

General
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There are years when weeks happen and then, there are weeks when decades happen

This week was the most significant one for the theme of de-dollarization for various reasons.

Let me share some of my observations:

  • After all these years of intellectually stimulating de-dollarization dream :grin: of most of us, This was the first time that there was an acknowledgement from American media as they have started noticing the change in patterns of various countries dealing in either their own currency or in yuan.

  • Janet Yellen, who is the secretary of treasury of US also addressed this topic saying it is almost impossible to have an alternative to US dollar so easily. Acknowledgement of the change is key here.

Here are some deals done by various countries in this week:

Things are moving quickly. Let’s see how this shapes up in few weeks or months from now.

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I am guessing not. I think this is like red day candles, a few red day candles does not mean the month candles are red.

Although I have very basic understanding of these things, I don’t think $ cannot be dethroned that easily. Of course there will be a first time for everything.

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Surprising assessment. Such deals and announcement is going on for years.
I agree world is changing and dollar is loosing its sheen, but it would be stretch to say it all happened this week and few months from now, world would have changed.

Some examples:

This was in 2010:

And this was 2014:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-russia-idUSKBN0H40X020140909

Opec is talking about removing reliance on dollar for 15 years now:

And saudi said a year back they will accept yuan for oil
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil-sales-11647351541

And American media has been reporting on all these for years

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Gaining momentum…

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You are correct.

What i’m saying is: This week’s action point at how various countries are trying hard to make this happen. News flow is definitely visible more than what it was in the past.

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That is called as Recency Bias :slight_smile:

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I’m aware of my recency bias and also the bias that i had in the past :slight_smile:

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Had setup a yearly reminder for this topic and it just popped up.
Weeks, months and a year has passed and doesn’t seem like world changed :wink:

In fact, dollar gained strength in last one year too

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Dollar is more or less rangebound with positive bias even with record debt levels and fiscal deficit.

But yeah, there is no momentum in the big dedollarization movement.

It’s more or less happening slowly but warning signals are clearly visible.

I’ll probably be wrong few more times but I hope to be right hopefully…

How to do we play out the move though is a bigger question to ponder and there are no perfectly clear answers right now

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De dollarisation in a parallel universe - not in this world .

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In short, My man …you are saying…We will have a tsunami but not sure when its gonna happen…Okayyy fair enough :grin:

Picking a trade is probably the easy part here

Gauging the consequences that this event would bring to the global economy is the part that almost 99.99% of us don’t have a clue about.

It’s one of my favorite topics to discuss and study as well. Will share my two bits on this very soon

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