Yes,It will have an huge impact if NDA comes to power under Modis Leadership.
I think you should participate to some extent. The election results are always unpredictable in spite of the pre-poll surveys. So anything could happen after the elections, but if you get a favourable result, the markets could go up 10% in no time and then you would not be able to buy anything.
Of course, there is a flip side risk of the markets going down 10% if the results are not favourable. So investing about 50% of the money you want to invest at this point of time would be a good strategy and then, you can take a view after the election results are out.
Election results has major impact on markets, since the markets reflects the countries economy and the major economic polocies are taken by the political leaders.
Coming to the investment you can find more voltality in markets and directional rally propably uptred based on expectation of positive election results. In case result is agansit the expectation can worse the condition.
If you are close monitor of elections and confident on election result, you can take advantage of pre election rally else right time to invest is post election results than pre election.
Honestly market discounts everything. All news are taken into account from before no matter whether it is election results/ any data coming/ company results etc. Smart volume distibutes and accumulates earlier before the retailer realises.
Election 2014 fever is picking up in india . And Modi is the trump card who will direct the market moves. Everybody has already taken this into account that India will be governed by BJP govt under Modi. And everybody is waiting for his new policies especially on infra structure,and growth
I solemnly go by technicals and nifty right now facing stiff resistance on weekly charts showing formation of top and till date the candle range is very small , On second hand a break out of ascending traingle has taken place nifty has to give more candles close above 6500 Personally I would not invest from fresh rather hold on my portfolio.and be only stock specific and wait for nifty to come agian 6100 to plough in money at those levels.
On the other hand I will not be on short rather keep on adding specific stocks on dips.
In terms of events, General elections usually have the maximum impact on the way the market moves, either up or down.
Is it a good time to Invest? hmm… Maybe not considering that markets have already run up quite a bit (by investments I am talking about anything that you are buying with an idea of holding it for long term, more than 3 years) and there is no real bargain out there.
Is it a good time to be in a trade? Definitely yes, if you look at past action around elections, the trend of the market running into an election has continued post elections. So yes since there is so much positive momentum and a general sense of retail feeling missed out, look at the stocks which have outperformed, and buy them even though they might seem the most expensive, because typically these will be the ones that will outperform.
Elections have a huge impact on markets. To give you a perspective - May 16th 2009 (Saturday) was when the previous election outcome was announce, NDA had the majority and they were to form the government. Markets opened on May 18th at 9:55 AM ( markets were opening at 9:55AM as opposed to 9:15 AM)…and within the first 2 mins, Sensex jumped 1000 points and the markets froze…that was roughly 20% on the Index! I’ve never seen such movement and I cant never forget it as well…it was a one off event. So hopefully you get a sense of the elections impact on markets.
With respect to investing it really depends on what you want. If you are a long term investor you have the risk of huge under performance if 2009 repeats. The million dollar question is, will it repeat. Your guess is as good as mine!
Elections results (EL) can lock Nifty in circuit. If you want to invest then elections result should not bother you but if you want to trade then it matters the most.
Well if markets have factored in the Modi phenomena then in that case it would be better to short in anticipation of a hung parliament … … Anyways I agree with your point on resistance as I too anticipate NIFTY to go down to 6300 by this weekend… Thanks
… Anyways I agree with your point on resistance as I too anticipate NIFTY to go down to 6300 by this weekend… Thanks