Does SEBI think it can control international CPO prices?

SEBi has banned trading in futures of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) and some other commodities for one year.

CPO is an international commodity. Does SEBI really think they can control international CPO prices by stopping trading of its futures in India? I wonder who their advisors are.

The above article clearly mentions the reasons for inflation. It has nothing to do with futures trading. Not sure what their intentions are.

1 Like

I don’t think that they can control prices by doing so!! Futures Market create the efficiency in prices of commodities and in hedging.

1 Like

Unfortunately, a huge opportunity has been lost by traders due to the ban on Crude Palm Oil trading imposed by Ajay Tyagi. I hope the new SEBi chief reconsiders and lifts this ban. Huge tax loss for the Government also on potential trading profit taxes which will not be realised because of the ban.

old article

:point_down:SEBI may have decided to ban futures trading in 5 commodities:point_down:

Can SEBI contain inflation? (finshots.in)

Here’s a thought… :slight_smile:

Does agriculture exist to serve the interests of commodity futures-traders?
or
Does trading in commodity-futures exist to serve farmers and agro-buyers?

It is generally accepted that they benefit each other.
A symbiotic mutually-beneficially relationship exists between the two -
the underlying economic-activity and the trading in its futures.

A forward contract is an agreement between two parties to exchange at a fixed future date a given quantity of a commodity for a specific price defined when the contract is finalized. The fixed price is also called forward price.

Such forward contracts began as a way of reducing pricing risk in food and agricultural product markets. By agreeing in advance on a price for a future delivery, farmers were able protect their output against a possible fall of market prices and in contrast buyers were able to protect themselves against a possible rise of market prices.

Forward contracts, for example, were used for rice in seventeenth century Japan.
[ Source ]

In an ideal scenario the participants in the futures-market

  • enable proper price-discovery
  • enable stable / guaranteed pricing
  • provide additional liquidity

The futures-market participants may be able to extract some profit in exchange for the above.

If the futures-market becomes extremely volatile, or begins to behave erratically,
i.e. begins to speculate instead of proper price-discovery,
is the futures-market serving any purpose to the underlying economic activity anymore?

In such a scenario, does it make sense to temporarily pause the futures-trading? :thinking:

According to this article, regulating the futures market to control the price of a commodity, is a fool’s errand.
The speculation / erractic behavior of a futures market is generally NOT a root-cause,
rather a symptom of the uncertainty that exists around the price of the commodity during the period.

Thus, temporarily banning futures-trading will NOT be able to avoid price fluctuations due to the underlying uncertainty. However, such a ban can ensure that the futures-market does NOT further contribute to the fluctuations/uncertainty.


Also, here’s a recent related discussion on Free-Market vs. Regulation.

1 Like

The ban was not for controlling the price fluctuations or uncertainty. During times of such increased volatility, the exchange itself already has a mechanism to increase the margin requirements for reducing risks as well as trading volumes. SEBI says it introduced the ban for a year to control inflation, and so it does not make sense. Because inflation is more driven by the supply and demand of the underlying commodity. And this inflation is still continuing as we can see and has not much to do with futures since the trading in those futures have already been banned.

The logic (flawed?) appears to have been that
in addition to the impact of the supply/demand of the commodity on its price,
speculation in futures was also a factor in driving the price up.

Based on the results so far (continued rising price of the commodity?), the logic appears to have been flawed.
However, what is to say that,
if the trading in futures had NOT been halted,
the inflated prices wouldn’t have gotten even further inflated? :thinking:

( i don’t have proofs either way, just highlighting the complexity involved in macroeconomics.
Atleast, the trading ban has ruled out one source of speculative prices - futures trading, and simplified the model for now. Hopefully, this helps the decision-makers understand and address the root-cause sooner. :crossed_fingers:t3: )

I understand your viewpoint. But normally speculation happens both ways. Because there are traders who follow the trend or momentum as well as there are traders who are mean reversionists or contrarian in all market conditions. So when the prices go up, the value-seeking contrarian traders actually short the futures with the hope that the prices will soon fall.

Besides this, we need to note that the commodities banned are actually internationally traded commodities. So banning their trading in India really won’t affect their prices either way. Because their prices are determined across international exchanges. And if there is any disparity in the prices across exchanges, immediately the arbitrage traders correct the price differences.

In 2009, FMC (forward market commission, now merged in sebi) banned guargum & guarseed for almost a year, after modi elected in 2014 , potato & chill futures also suspended forever for trading.
that time, i have very good trading strategies in both commodities, but due to suspension of trading in both scripts i shifted to other products. Although almost all brokers are not helpful to traders who trade in ncdex (agri commodities), also there isn’t any hedging tool available. If i don’t wrong, many brokers canceled their ncdex membership, or don’t provide trading service for ncdex segment. After 2014, the trading volume also declined on ncdex.

1 Like

SEBI again is trying to control prices of international commodities like Soyabean and CPO in a futile way by extending the ban on trading them in India! They are completely disregarding the global factors, the commodity exchanges, the cabinet secretariat, free markets, edible oil producers, traders and farmers and instead are showing their unjustified authoritarian might by trying to kill the market, probably for some vested interests: Sebi extends futures trading ban on seven farm commodities for another year | Mint . In the process, SEBI is going against their own stated objectives of promoting the development of the markets!

The way things are being done, SEBI may end up being the first regulator in the world to kill an exchange: Ban on futures trade of agri items must go: NCDEX chief - Commodities News | The Financial Express

SEBI is also completely ignoring farmers: SEBI ban on agri commodities trade: Why farmers are protesting against the regulator in Mumbai | Explained News - The Indian Express . SEBI’s arrogance reminds one of the Queen Marie-Antoinette who said that if they don’t have bread, let them eat cake.