Does technical analysis work in modern markets?

This is a controversial but an interesting take by neil borate. One which @Jason_Castelino also agrees i think :smiley:

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@nithin shared a balanced take on this in his tweet and I quote

  • The best part about TA is that it doesn’t let us go against the trend and forces us to have a stop loss. It stops us from averaging down as the price falls. If traders follow these rules, odds of doing well go up significantly.

  • But can the various indicators and patterns magically help determine the right time to enter or exit?
    My sense is probably not.

Has the trend of people who care about TA as a % of people who trade the markets increased over the last few years? I don’t think so.

  • I remember even in the late 2000s, everyone wanted the latest indicators on their charts. Many trading forums were dedicated to various TA strategies and studies. Even at Zerodha, queries related to charts and indicators have dropped significantly in the last few years.

TA_google

  • Today there are maybe not more than 15 lakh daily active traders in India. A small number in the India context but they contribute over 80% of the exchange volumes. The trend among traders today seems to be to trade news and sentiment using options strategies.

  • By the way, some of the principles behind TA can be combined with fundamental analysis to help trade better. I shared this in a blog post a few years back.

Basic rules of trading – Z-Connect by Zerodha

What are your thoughts on this?

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If the boss says it doesnt work, it doesnt. period. :wink:

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I guess as more people get used to AI they can just learn about a couple of indicators and use them to make simple strategies, and stay in the markets without digging deep into technical analysis :slight_smile:

My limited experience in market says:

In markets nothing is certain and there’s no holy grail. All the indicators (technical and fundamental) help us in self assuring and confidence building. :smiley: @viswaram @Chetan_Nahata

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This is a pakka controversial take of which I don’t have any direct proof but here it is:

Fiction stories by chetan bhagat are more believable than most of the fundamental data shared by most of the companies :wink: @Jason_Castelino

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The Financial Market is a place where what works for one may not work for the other. The psychology of each person differs.

I like how you made sure I am tagged in this post. :sweat_smile::sweat_smile::sweat_smile:

Well. I have told this before and I will say it again. Technical analysis exists and it works wonders for some. It’s just that I do not believe in it. I always feel it’s a 50:50 chance. Now the ones who follow technicals say even 40 percent change of winning is enough if you have good risk and reward. Then why should I even check technicals. My guess also has 50 percent chance of being correct. Let me do random experiment with 50 percent probability. Then keep risk reward at 1:2. I will still end profitable.
Again. I do not mean to offend any one who uses technicals. It may work for them. It won’t for me. It’s simple.
What works for me, may not work for you. And what do I do? Guess. :man_shrugging:

I feel there is no hard and fast rule as to what one needs to do to make money in stock market.
If everybody learns technicals then it is no longer a secret. There should be one way direction if all are buying or all are selling. How does the trend even change.
Well. I am more confused now. Am I a believer of random walk theory? Ah. May be. :rofl::rofl:

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You read fictional stories in financials which my professional colleagues certify. :sob::sob::sob:

Also. Why was I tagged the second time. Am I missing something? :thinking:
First time I understand. :laughing::laughing::laughing:

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:grimacing: :grimacing:

They are the ones who create it and also certify it. CAs are multi talented :grin:

To take a little serious view.

I was part of the audit team of a bank in 2012 which had exposure to Kingfisher airlines. It was a clear case of NPA. But then the pressure from the higher level was so high that it was reported as a standard asset. Since then I don’t even believe in fundamentals.
Damnn.

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I was part of some similar audits too as an articled assistant.

Accounts is more art than science and accountants are one of the most creative artists. The tools one has at their disposal is tough to comprehend for 99% other humans

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Now should I be proud of this or be ashamed? :thinking:

As long as its legal, its all good and something to be proud of I guess. :cowboy_hat_face:

Don’t really agree with this. Trend following is only a subset of TA. We can have mean reversion too where we go against the trend. Not everything works in every situation. Momentum and MR are both forces of market that show up at different times - and in different way for different markets.


There is TA that works and lots that don’t. We have data, all we need to do is test and use some common sense - after having some reasonable experience and understanding of market behaviour.

People who pickup some concepts and trade looking at charts without exhaustively testing the plan are setting themselves up for failure. But some things do work - simple things - and they work out over large sample. Usually this is stable, but still we work within an uncertain environment where things can change.

I have a system that trades with 35% win rate and did decently last year. This is basic math boss. If i make 2x when i win and lose 1x when i lose my edge is 2 * 0.35 - 1 * 0.65 which is positive.

You wont get any R:R that you desire. Markets are very efficient in this. if i wait for larger profit, win rate generally reduces accordingly to balance things out. So if you keep 1:2 you wont get 50% without an edge - try it - place random trades. After enough trades you wont make money.

Only with an edge we can have winners-losers=positive and this is irrespective of win rate.

Obviously I understand this. And I also said the same. It will work for few. And for few it won’t.
I am not against technicals at all. It’s just that I do not use it. :love_you_gesture:

What I also mentioned is this.

I do not know if it will even work.

Yeah i know, but just emphasizing that we cant keep any R:R and hope to get 50% win rate magically. Does not work like that. Else ill just do 1:10 - cause why not ?

Look. I will keep same RR as you.
But instead of using technicals I will take random calls.

Example. I sell everyday at 9.30. 1:2 risk reward.

I have not tested this. But I feel even this might be profitable. Again I do not know.

Or we see a lot of short covering these day.

Buy at 2.30 everyday with same RR.
Will it work ? Genuinely asking.

TA works. All the money that I have made in the market is using TA. For me what a TA based strategy gives is a math model which process incoming data and gives an output probability of success, risk reward, drawdowns etc in clear math terms. Such models are not just applied in stock market but in other fields as well including engineering which I know personally to a degree. Quantitative models are better than discretionary methods only few will ever ace. Quantitative models makes it easy for people to follow and automate for stress free trading.

The reason technical analysis works is not just because of the math behind it.

A trader will get more disciplined when a specific TA model is adopted. This will prevent him from over trading, under trading or panic exiting.

This discipline is what makes a person successful. If some one has this in-built then no need to follow TA!