Duty Beyond Silence

[cvs]

@neha1101

If there was indeed nothing, why did a chairman make a statement of this kind,

@neha1101

He was the chairman and not a naive guy who does not know the implication of what he says.

He is not naive. And likely is of sound mind.
Reasonable to assume that he did what he did knowing the effect it would have on the company and its stock.

• Did he benefit from it?
• Alternately was he forced to do so by someone else who benefited? Who?
• Is this a deliberate red-herring to draw attention away from some larger problem lurking in the shadows?

A lot of guesswork right now…

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When one is operating on incomplete information...

here’s a handy list of techniques/frameworks to utilize -

• if need the potential higher rewards,

  • No?

    • Use Maximin model to pick the approach with the best worst-case.

  • Yes?

    • If you have absolutely no historical data

      • is the magnitude of the result potentially life-altering?
        • Yes? - Regret Minimzation.
          • Here’s an example in another topic-thread.
        • No? - Minimax Regret.

    • If you have historical data with stable, predictable patterns

      • use Bayesian Updating or Monte Carlo.
        • Here’s an example from another topic-thread.

    • If you have historical data characterized by high volatility, and current unpredictable patterns

      • Use the “Probe-Sense-Respond” approach of the Cynefin framework
        (to handle “Complex” scenarios)
        • Earlier in this topic-thread is a good example.

    • If you are planning for the future, independent of past performance

      • can use Scenario Planning.
        • An example from another recent topic-thread.
          Note: Also contains historical modelling to first come-up with potential scenarios.