Expiry Game of Bank Nifty & Nifty


#21

Bro action will be on vote counting day only … Like Gujarat election counting day when nifty shows 500 point movement… My experience buying put will be better … If bjp wins than market will stable but if congress leads in any point sudden down rally will be shown by index manipulators… As they know how to play with emotions of retailers… And stop loss and margin get triggered by algos in seconds… :smile: :smile:


#22

I am not sure about the manipulators man but if If there are any they should be taken into a dark room and beaten up. :slight_smile:


#23

Also I and I am sure you might have observed that most of the time it’s hard for retailers to be in profit as major moves don’t happen on the events but either before if there is insider info or after the event. Example on budget day it barely moved but after that nifty has been down 1000 points and banknifty more than 3k points


#24

Bro manipulator are always there … And they get a helping hands of our so called paid analyst in TV … There are lots of eg available… And for budget day there are many reason of nifty fall…

  1. so much infalted and taken to the level of 11100 … Actually it is sitting on edge of mountain.
  2. global fall
  3. ltgc
    And many other reasons … Yes it was saved on budget day but started red on the same day… :smile:

#25

Most of the time if there is no news I think nifty/bnknifty just follows major indices like Dow is now 1.5% up if it continues till tomorrow we can expect 30 to 40 points gap up on nifty on Monday.


#26

I think Straddle or strangle are suitable when market moves significantly in one direction and there is more time for expiry

During expiry we can follow this strategy if there is expectations for movement of about 100 points or more in banknifty after 1 pm when premium price is low

I think @sushil_sirari1 strategy may work well

I followed the long strangle on 22nd March and failed to pocket the profit. Due to my greediness lost more than 50k

If I booked profit as @sushil_sirari1 mentioned I would have gained atleast 30000 RS profit


#27

premiums will also be less on the expiry day … thing is these are all gambles and not trade in any proper sense , google about “pinning effect” :stuck_out_tongue:
on expiry day mkt moves for no reason … last 1.5/2hrs even a 200pt move without any trigger is normal …

last week i did straddle for 98/99points at arnd 1.30 and covered it for 90points within 45 minutes …
BN moved 60/70 points … if it has moved another 100 points it might have given good gains

like if it works we might get 100+ point gains , if not max 30pt loss…
anyway i dont bet my house on this …


#28

Exactly my point, if you expect 100 point movement after 1 pm then you can go with long strangle.

I agree we should not bet our entire capital in this strategy.


#29

Bro as I love expiry gambling I am following bank nifty expiry for many weeks . as per my observation

  1. on expiry day we don’t follow global trends.
  2. react very aggressive on any news positive or negative.
  3. in weekly expiry bank nifty more often shows on sided movement in last hours than monthly expiry. In monthly expiry bank nifty remain range bound most of the time and close near opening levels.
  4. hdfc bank is a good tool to control bank nifty direction. If hdfc used to hammer bank nifty on last hour it is good btst to play for friday. On Friday most of the time hdfc reclaim the thrusdy morning price.
    5)sell order in bank nifty should be place as soon as our call put triggered because it don’t give time to cover in profit.
    :slight_smile: :slight_smile:

#30

i analyzed it for the last 2 months and my learning so far … ( i did only straddle / strangle … timeframe 45mins after 1pm … fire immeditely after volume comes )…

  1. straddle will lose 30% of the premium if there is no change in BN index
  2. strangle will lose 40% of the premium if there is no change ( 50pt diff… if BN is 24050 , then 24100 CE and 24000 PE )
  3. strangle will lose 50% of the premium if there is no change ( 100pt diff… if BN is 24100 , then 24200 CE and 24000 PE )

for breakeven , BN needs to move 70/80 points for 1 & 2 ( 3rd option ruled out )… now i know how much i will lose , need to work on it…
also my observation is we have to buy only when BN moved up or down significantly on the expiry day…
in feb end i lost 70k because of my stupidity … so decided to try this expiry gamble later

if something works out i will give all credits to you :blush:


#31

Good analysis bro. I am a little late to read this. If I you posted it 2 weeks ago, I would have saved 50k


#33

Task completed …


#34

@VelmuruganSengottai @newguy bro what are view on new proposal of SEBI regarding ITR for retailers. Broker will give exposure as per ITR . I only understand as a option buyer I am safe as it is already no exposure trade. But for fut and option writing it will affect ??? Correct me if I am wrong…


#35

Yes option writing involves high margin requirements so it will be affected. I think it’s ridiculous if implemented.


#36

i am sure SEBI will put more restrictions on futures and selling options …
there won’t be any change in option buying :pray:

i actually support SEBIs move bro , many guys blindly get into futures and lose most of the times …
these restrictions are there in other developed markets


#37

Bro a bad move for you I think…??? As a writer how much you think will affect your lot size ??


#38

we really can’t guess exactly what they are going todo …
but i think it will be based ones capital , like in USA many brokers have 25000 USD in theirs account to enable writing …

i have LLP trading account with my partner … don’t tnink i will be afffected :grinning:


#39

Is there any low cost equivalent of bull call spread and bear put spread strategy ?

For retailers like me


#40

Bro what you can spare for bull/bear call put strategy?? Because in low cost you have to go for otm options buy and deep otm options sell … Overall not a good strategy … If you can spare 50/60 k than @VelmuruganSengottai bro may suggest for weekly expiry… :slight_smile:


#41

For expiry day I have shared my strategy in this thread… You can go for it this weekly expiry … Low budget and high reward … :smile: