After closing at the peak level of 6950 during the dot-com bubble at the end of 1999, The FTSE 100 Index has delivered returns of 0.57% CAGR in the last 22 years even after considering the recent upmove where it is seen inching towards its all time high levels of 7903 which was last seen in 2018.
22 years of almost zero returns price wise.
This is a point to point comparison. If some one had invested in it in lumpsum and left it, then it would be an issue. If a customer had invested in it from start point to end point on a SIP basis, how would that individual fund have fared. I see from the charts that it goes to 6,000 and falls to 4000 and then goes to 7,000 falls to 4500 and now at 7800 (all approx). Will not his average be 5000 and current market price is 7800
Absolutely spot on. That’s the big advantage one has when one invests via SIP mode in general.
Indices sometimes can basically do nothing price wise for a long long time contrary to the general view that Indices always go up. That was the main idea behind this post.
Hence, as you rightly mentioned, in such scenarios, SIP mode ensures relatively better returns to the investors over the long run 
This is TRI (Dividend re-invested or Total Return Index) ? It would make more sense to consider TRI index for such long horizon.
In any case, looks to be nightmare for DIY retirement planners.
This century belongs to India. Nifty will go up in the long term 99.9%. 0.1% probability I will keep aside for some out of the world events that will move and shake the world rigorously.
I am not politically sided on anyway. But I strongly believe once Modi is stepped down I really doubt that India will have the same progression.
From a global stage investors will invest reduced capital and with lower forward looking estimates. I am not saying there wont be growth (We are 1 of the youngest and most consumer “rich” country in general) but the growth estimates etc will be down
I am someone who believes this. Don’t you think Indian markets still have couple of more decades before we reach the stage of stagnation?
Again. I just want your view point.
I know it can become half of what it is right now.
No , due to demograghics & aspirations ,growth momemtum may slow down but index won’t get saturate d in next thirty forty yrs
Index will not be saturated but index reflects the profits in turn is related to economy. And also our index is too concentrated with just 50 Stocks (30 incase of sensex) unlike developed countries.
S&P 500 - 503
Nekkei 225 - 225
FTSE 100 - 100
India once accounted for 25 - 30% of world GDP. We will reach there again. Then think where our stock market index will be at.
I am extremely bullish on the indian economy to such an extent that some of my family n frnds call me unrealistic when it comes to my bullishness on India 
Not just 2 decades. I feel we have long way to go before reaching a point of saturation. Let’s go 100k and beyond in sensex
I’m aware of my extreme bullish bias and to counter it , usually test my bias with strong counter points. For eg: China too has basically given extremely stagnant returns although one might say it has got to do with the type of governance. But, as you too rightly mentioned above, we gotta factor in the risks
Dividends includes 94% return for the UK markets in these 22 years. roughly 3.5-3.6% CAGR. If we add both dividend amt and price, it is somewhere around 4% CAGR .
But again, as you rightly said it… 
A different point.
In our country we have a plethora of venues where people can invest, and considering the existing ecosystem, perhaps a little part of this is changing, due to necessity or legalization, but the rest is not going to change for the foreseeable future.
While the participation is surely increasing, it could be froth too, even if it is not, patience is one of the most important factors in investing, not everyone has it as a virtue and not all can afford it even if they have.
So I have my reservations.
I am a bull and I can afford being a bear as I diversify 
Wowww. That’s more like me. So many times I felt nobody is on the same page as me on this forum. Finally I found someone. 
I was being conservative for the same reason I stated above.
That’s the nifty level I expect in 20 years. I haven’t calculated exact values but a cagr of around 12 percent should get us there. ( just a random guess )
One other thing in addition to my already expressed views is FIIs, when they find better emerging markets, they will skip us, and the Indian retail cushion may not be sufficient to hold the market. However unlikely nevertheless looks like a possibility to me.
Nifty - Where are you going?
FIIs - Home
Nifty - But we are your home, India is your home
FIIs - Not anymore sweetheart, we have found a new home, with a much younger partner 
None can afford to ignore India in my opinion.
In a new world order which is slowly emerging, India has a key role to play
Capitalism does not change. The puck goes where there is more bang for the buck.
I don’t undermine the possibility of Indian market growing, nevertheless I am not too gung ho too.
I want to be proved wrong, because I gain
“ Benchmark indices BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 managed to end more than 3% higher, even though Indian equities saw the worst sell-off ever from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in 2022. FIIs sold Indian stocks worth Rs 2.78 lakh crore in 2022. Meanwhile, DIIs remained net buyers last year, purchasing equities worth Rs 2.76 lakh crore. The strong DII buying was buoyed by continued inflows in MFs, even as the pace of monthly inflows slowed.
This is the first time in four years that FII flows have turned negative. Since the beginning of the year 2022, FIIs continuously remained net sellers, according to NSDL data.”
Applying “rule of 72” to your 12% cagr, implies 6 years…
I know this. I know the buoyancy. The question is about the sustainability of the trend.
