One other thing in addition to my already expressed views is FIIs, when they find better emerging markets, they will skip us, and the Indian retail cushion may not be sufficient to hold the market. However unlikely nevertheless looks like a possibility to me.
Nifty - Where are you going?
FIIs - Home
Nifty - But we are your home, India is your home
FIIs - Not anymore sweetheart, we have found a new home, with a much younger partner 
None can afford to ignore India in my opinion.
In a new world order which is slowly emerging, India has a key role to play
Capitalism does not change. The puck goes where there is more bang for the buck.
I don’t undermine the possibility of Indian market growing, nevertheless I am not too gung ho too.
I want to be proved wrong, because I gain
“ Benchmark indices BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 managed to end more than 3% higher, even though Indian equities saw the worst sell-off ever from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in 2022. FIIs sold Indian stocks worth Rs 2.78 lakh crore in 2022. Meanwhile, DIIs remained net buyers last year, purchasing equities worth Rs 2.76 lakh crore. The strong DII buying was buoyed by continued inflows in MFs, even as the pace of monthly inflows slowed.
This is the first time in four years that FII flows have turned negative. Since the beginning of the year 2022, FIIs continuously remained net sellers, according to NSDL data.”
Applying “rule of 72” to your 12% cagr, implies 6 years…
I know this. I know the buoyancy. The question is about the sustainability of the trend.
I saw someone on a panel mention the change in Indian markets came about due to a government decision in 2015-16, to allow public funds to have greater participation in the equity markets.
This was akin to the 401(k) passed in the US long back 70-80’s to allow public funds to directly participate in equity markets.
I don’t recall if the amount of participation was increased, or whether participation was just started to be allowed.
But this was one of the primary reasons identified for the gradual increase in resilience of the DIIs in Indian markets.
In simple terms, every month more and more of public money enters the markets (EPF, PPF, etc)
Yes. SBI’s Nifty 50 ETF 1,54,851 crores of AUM.
PPF is a sovereign product and a compounding debt product, EEE product, which has a place in the overall PF, and as it is debt, it should not be mixed with equity. Also, PPF has been for decades, I think it started in mid 1960s.
My point is that, some people are coming into equity with no idea, they think that equity works like FDs, and some think that money is made easily in the market, so all they need is to just invest. There is a lot of misunderstanding and misinformation. The emphasis and focus is on the returns and the risks are mentioned as a standard message.
So I don’t if and when the retail inflows will slow down, or if this is a genuine case of financialization of assets that is in the making, as more and more get aware and educated regarding the market and enter.
Didn’t even think so much.
If we consider 6 years to double, in 2029 we will be at 36000. In 2035 we get 72000 and 2041 we get 144000.
Hard to believe we will get there when you see in absolute terms.
So lumpsum may not be the best way to invest in ETF? Now i am doubting my index investments! 
1.Yes, fully agree. The advantage is that this is not a lumpsum, it keeps coming in on a yearly basis and will only increase.
2. Last year, despite FII selling off huge amounts, the markets did not have any adverse effects due to retail participation. This is only going to continue. If you ask young people who started working and saving and tell them about FD they say HUH??? . Most of them either spend their entire money or invariably go for Mutual funds. Advertisements and media blitz is one of the reason. I know a person who jumped jobs, got a higher salary and opened a NPS account due to additional tax saving option.
3. Government main agenda is growth and this will invariably mean reduction or bringing down interest rate, this will force retail FD centric customers to park a small portion of money in mutual fund or Index funds.
4. I read in an article that only 3% of Indians are invested in stock market whilst 55% is invested in USA. I know it is not a like to like comparison as they do not have high interest bearing FDs, but if this percentage increases on a year on year basis due to younger generation becoming earning members, the number and amount invested in stock market will only increase.
5. A decade back and this might be true even today, buying gold jewellery or a real estate was the in thing. Nowadays, this trend is changing, miniscule rental yeild and people keep moving from one place to another, owing real estate is becoming a problem. This results in more disposable income which eventually move to the markets.
6. Experts used to say, people who retire should move out of equity and park their funds in fixed income, now the trend is changing and people say, keep a portion of the money in equity as Inflation will eat away fixed income and people live longer. This too might have an impact.
What India has is its population, Corporates can manage and thrive just serving, we Indians in India. This together with inflation will always result in positive growth for well run Corporates.
FII are no longer a threat for Indian Markets, in 2022, I read somewhere that FII sold 2.78 lack crore and DII bought 2.76 lack crore. How much more can they sell? Few years back, if FII sell, the market would crash. No experts thought that retail in India would back the markets with such intensity. Everyone had a FOMO issue.
All said and done, asset allocation is a must.
Just one issue of LIC and 1.21 cr new demat account was opened - True half might be dormant after the issue, but even if 25% turned active…
Lumpsum may not be a best idea if you invest and forget it. If you have conviction on your Index, you can still invest lumpum and buy in small quantity when the price falls and sell a small portion when the price increase. This will eventually bring down your investment cost. Say your investment cost is 20 whilst market price is 100 and you know for sure it will not fall below 50, then it is fine to leave it.
Sorry, was thinking BN and thinking of 50k to 100k… my mistake
Even then nifty will easily cross 1lakh even if you consider 10 percent cagr.
Earlier I had just posted before calculation.
Now when I do calculation all that we need is 8.6percent CAGR to reach 1lakh in 20 years from now.
Isn’t it still more than their average interest rates over these years ??? Again I haven’t checked any data.
Further convert it to rupee terms for better comparison with nifty.
I would stay with equity. Right now I have 42 percent of account value in equity and in the last two weeks I have been slowly increasing my equity exposure by buying bees. Want to get it around 60 percent.
Although we are drifting away from the topic of thread… I agree.
Just see the economy of Pakistan and Srilanka. The downfall is a combination of multiple socio-economic internal, external factors as well as nature’s fury.
We as a nation are equally vulnerable to such factors.
Well, all kinds of opinions should be heard, don’t you agree, if they have some relevance.
Also, traders have a different view of the market and investors have a different view, so when we get to listen to both sides, we get to know more. Not you specifically, but in general.
The social structure of India is very very different, I don’t have to emphasize this to you, so I am not worried about an economy collapse, an downturn, a stagnation of growth, perhaps more likely.
