I know many here believe TA does nt work and its all random / newsdriven. Fair enough. But I think Silver is setting up for a strong move and could cross 700+ (silverbees i mean) in the coming months based primarily on structure and not macro news (though news helps most of the time). for context silver is now around 233 inr per gram.
So heres a light hearted challenge:
If silver hits 700+ in the coming months, and if you accept this challenge
You guys put in your bio for one month:
“I believe technical analysis works… at least sometimes.”
If it doesn’t hit 700+, I quit this forum. Yes I can come back with livepositionaltrader2 and lose all my chats… but still its a pain
This is just for fun. No ego, no toxicity.
Lets see what the market decides.
Silver 200%+ / 700+ Silverbees in coming 100-150 days
TA does work, and i make money off it. At least so far for few years now …
But, on any single trade or even small group of trades, i have absolutely no idea what will happen.
I don’t even know if system will continue to work …
Anyway my opinion - If silver hits your target, it does not mean (your) TA works. And if Silver does not hit the target, it also does not mean that (your) TA doesnt work.
Still dont understand, why people keep looking at TA as one single thing.
Anyway, good luck.
lol. I am not bullish. I am neutral. It was going up too much too fast and I sold and now that it’s down 40 percent, I have bought it back. Now let me wait for 5L in silver to sell again. 700 in one year is not happening.
I bet against TA and i make money off it. So IMO it’s ultimately the strategy which works with proper risk management.
I will agree it works, only if nifty comes to 19500.
Okay now on a serious note. TA does work when used rightly. Also, random works very well when done randomly.
I agree, one outcome doesnt “prove” TA works forever. appreciate the honest viewpoint. This is just for fun.
will check during my free time.
100-150 days from now is what i feel.
not a formal trade contract, lets keep it simple here any close above 700 counts and if it fails to reach in the timeframe, we discuss. thanks for asking for clarity.
fair but exaggerating to 10 years is a good way to dismiss a thesis without engaging it.
im talking about a cyclical move, not a retirement plan.
Let’s see which plays out.
parabolic phases historically compress time, not expand it. so if it takes 10 years the structure I am seeing would be invalid anyway. that’s the point of having a thesis.
@SpacemanSpiff
You and @Jason_Castelino dont play the same game when it comes to short term trading. You are aways ATM as you are a stock trader, whereas JC is mostly OTM and so his probabilities are different even if he is going against the trend.
Point i keep making, there is no one thing called as TA. No one is a sacred priest of TA who can say whats TA and whats not. Most people lose, many of them follow some type of TA. So a lot of TA is probably junk ( Fibo is for example imo - just extra noise).
Exactly, and things can change too, so no strategy has a god given right that it will continue working - TA or not.
Thats the uncertainty that we need to manage.
Dunno about this one. From what i understand, taking random actions in a random market => One cannot beat the market on average over large sample. Its because there are points where movement is tilted a bit that we can hope to make more than market returns.
Anyway, whatever works is right.
ok, cool.
Yeah, he seems to pick the ups and downs quite well going against short term emotional extremes. Real test i think might be to manage risk when markets goes one sided in a very rare move. But he isnt using leverage i think and has cash to back up puts. So great.
This + some directional system should work well together, so hopefully that overnight options system from t7 is working well.
Interesting that only 2 out of 7 accepted the challenge . it should be easy to beat right, 200%+ in 150 days or so with no major news catalyst so far. you could accept the challenge and still be right. The odds are clearly on your side.
Really appreciate the discussion. very interesting to see the different thought processes and interpretations people bring.
from what I see, silver fell sharply after the short buildup profiting him handsomely. but last updates were around feb 2-8 with no recent closure info.
its a pain
I am not bullish. I am neutral. It was going up too much too fast and I sold and now that it’s down 40 percent, I have bought it back. Now let me wait for 5L in silver to sell again. 700 in one year is not happening. 
but exaggerating to 10 years is a good way to dismiss a thesis without engaging it.