India–EU Trade Deal on Tuesday – Positive Trigger for Nifty?
India and the EU are likely to announce the conclusion of long-pending FTA talks on Tuesday, after PM Modi’s meeting with EU leaders during the India-EU summit (Jan 25–28). If finalised and ratified, the deal could boost Indian exports and reduce dependence on the US amid rising global trade tensions.
Why this matters • Bilateral trade: $136.5 bn (FY25)
• EU = key trading partner
• Talks resumed in 2022 after 9 years
• Comes as US tariffs on Indian goods rise (up to 50%)
Key beneficiaries Textiles, leather & jewellery, electronics, pharma, chemicals, auto components
Lower tariffs could help Indian exporters compete better with Bangladesh & Vietnam and offset weak US demand.
Challenges Auto tariff cuts, regulatory hurdles, and final approval may take 1+ year
Market View : With Nifty near 25,000 and sentiment weak due to FII selling & earnings pressure, a confirmed deal could act as a short-term positive trigger for export stocks and overall market sentiment.
Long-term impact depends on execution, global cues & Budget expectations.
Conclusion : The deal has strong long-term potential and may support a short-term bounce in Nifty, but markets may stay cautious until clarity on timelines and details.
Disclaimer:
This post is for educational and informational purposes only and not investment advice.
US Markets End Higher Ahead of Fed Meet & Mega Earnings - Jan 26, 2026
US stocks closed higher on Monday as investors prepared for a crucial week packed with the Federal Reserve policy meeting and big-ticket earnings, amid rising geopolitical tensions.
Dow Jones +314 pts (+0.6%) S&P 500 +0.5% Nasdaq +0.4%
Fed in Focus
The Fed’s 2-day meeting ends Wednesday. Markets expect no rate cut, signaling a possible long pause after last year’s cuts.
Tensions between Trump & Fed Chair Jerome Powell are also in focus, with Powell set to step down in May.
Big Earnings This Week (Magnificent 7) Tesla – Wed Microsoft & Meta – Wed Apple – Thu
Investors will track AI spending, consumer demand & profit margins.
Geopolitics Driving Volatility
• Trump warned of 100% tariffs on Canada over China ties
• US–Iran tensions rising; US naval forces moving to the region
• Greenland deal eased EU tariff threats last week
Gold at Record High
Gold surged above $5,100/oz as investors rushed to safe assets.
Oil Slightly Lower
Brent: $64.90 (-0.3%)
WTI: $60.80 (-0.4%)
(Still up ~2.7% last week)
Bottom Line:
Markets remain supported, but this week’s Fed decision + Big Tech earnings + geopolitics will decide the next direction.
Market will never go up on next 3 years - upto trumph is there in oval office
next 3 years nifty will be in 25k only - because trum day by day news will hurt investor mind , because i moved 50% equity to gsec, most of the investor mind set also like that
Indian Markets Rally on India–EU Trade Deal Boost - Jan 27, 2026
Indian shares ended higher on Tuesday after a volatile session, driven by a landmark India–EU trade deal that removes tariffs on most Indian exports.
Nifty 50: +0.51% → 25,175 Sensex: +0.39% → 81,857 India VIX jumped to a 7-month high ahead of the Feb 1 Budget & US tariff worries
Why the deal matters
• India to cut tariffs on 96.6% of goods
• EU to cut tariffs on 99.5% over 7 years
• Positive for exports, sector growth & global investor confidence
Auto stocks fell (-0.9%)
As EU car import tariffs will be cut sharply
• M&M -4.2%
• Maruti -1.5%
• Tata Motors PV -1.1% Metals shine (+3.1%)
On strong JSW Steel results & higher metal prices
Stock moves
• Axis Bank +4.6%
• UltraTech Cement +1.8% (strong results)
• Kotak Bank -3.3% (missed estimates)
• Adani group stocks recovered part of Friday’s losses
Bottom line:
The India–EU deal is structurally positive for trade, investment & long-term market sentiment, though short-term volatility may stay high ahead of the Budget and global tariff cues.
Gold’s current bull run (since ~2020) looks similar to the early phases of the 1970s and 2000s mega rallies.
So far: ~150% gain (vs 2300% in 1970s, 650% in 2000s) 76 all-time highs till mid-2025 (1970s: 209 | 2000s: 106)
Suggests the cycle may still be in its early/mid stage
• Past cycles saw explosive second halves with parabolic moves.
• Final peaks usually last ~9 months with 100%+ rallies.
Price Projections
• Short term (by end-2026): $4,000 – $5,000
• Bull case: $7,600+
• Full cycle potential: 5x – 10x from lows (if history repeats)
Key Drivers Heavy global debt Record central-bank gold buying Inflation concerns Expected Fed rate cuts (~75 bps in 2026) China demand + ETF inflows
Risks
• Strong USD or global growth could cap prices around $3,500 – $4,000
• Probability of this scenario: ~20%
Bottom line:
If history rhymes, gold may be far from its final peak, with the strongest phase potentially still ahead.
Disclaimer : This post is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Gold and financial market investments are subject to market risks.
Gold Slips Below $5,000 as Fed Succession Eases Fears
Gold prices fell sharply on Friday, dropping below $5,000/oz, as markets reacted positively to Donald Trump nominating Kevin Warsh to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell — easing concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence and stabilising the US dollar.
Why gold corrected • Warsh nomination reduced fears of Fed interference
• Dollar stabilised, pressuring gold & silver
• Heavy profit-taking after gold’s massive rally to near $5,600/oz
Recent rally context • Gold had surged 8 straight sessions (+17.9%) — its strongest run since 2008
• Silver slipped from record highs but held firm compared to sharp intraday falls
Still a stellar month • Gold: ~+15% in January
• Silver: ~+31% (best performer)
• Platinum & Palladium: ~+7% each
Big picture Precious metals had rallied sharply on: • Geopolitical tensions
• Weak dollar
• Concerns over US fiscal health
• Safe-haven demand
Friday’s fall signals cooling, not collapse, as markets reassess risks after the Fed clarity.
Bottom Line:
Gold’s sharp drop reflects profit-booking and reduced Fed uncertainty, but January remains exceptionally strong for precious metals, with long-term drivers still intact.
Feb 01, 2026
Indian equities fell sharply on Sunday after the Union Budget proposed a steep hike in STT on derivatives and failed to offer strong measures to attract foreign investment.
Market Snapshot
• Nifty 50 ↓ 1.96% to 24,825
• Sensex ↓ 1.88% to 80,723
Worst budget-day performance in 6 years
Key Reasons for the Fall
• STT hike
– Futures: 0.02% ➝ 0.05%
– Options: 0.10% ➝ 0.15%
➝ Concerns over lower trading activity & liquidity
• No major FII-friendly incentives
– Foreign investors have already pulled out $23 bn since 2025
Analysts warn higher trading costs may hurt liquidity rather than curb speculation.
Stocks Under Pressure
• BSE ↓ 7.8%
• Angel One ↓ 9% | Groww ↓ 5.1%
• PSU Banks ↓ 5.6% (no divestment clarity)
• Defence stocks ↓ 5.1% (profit booking after pre-budget rally)
Bright Spots
• IT sector ↑ 0.6% (buyback taxation as capital gains seen positive)
• Paytm ↑ 1.9% (higher UPI incentives)
• Textile stocks ↑ 2–11% on announcement of mega textile parks
Bottom Line While the budget focused on long-term development and manufacturing, higher STT and lack of FII triggers dampened near-term market sentiment, leading to a sharp sell-off.
Markets may remain cautious until clarity emerges on liquidity, FII flows, and earnings.
Trump Announced Trade Deal with India | GIFT Nifty Surges to 25,850
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a major trade deal with India, cutting reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18% after talks with PM Narendra Modi, signalling a clear improvement in India–US relations.
The U.S. will also withdraw the additional 25% tariff imposed over India’s purchase of Russian oil.
India is expected to shift part of its oil imports to the U.S. and Venezuela.
Trump claimed India will buy over $500 billion worth of U.S. energy, technology, agriculture and other goods.
PM Modi welcomed the move, saying “Made in India” products will now face lower tariffs.
Market Reaction:
Positive global cues pushed GIFT Nifty up to 25,850, indicating a strong start for Indian markets, with export-oriented sectors likely to remain in focus.
Disclaimer:
This post is for information and educational purposes only. It is not investment advice.
India–EU Trade Deal on Tuesday – Positive Trigger for Nifty?
Why this matters • Bilateral trade: $136.5 bn (FY25)
Key beneficiaries Textiles, leather & jewellery, electronics, pharma, chemicals, auto components
Challenges Auto tariff cuts, regulatory hurdles, and final approval may take 1+ year
Market View : With Nifty near 25,000 and sentiment weak due to FII selling & earnings pressure, a confirmed deal could act as a short-term positive trigger for export stocks and overall market sentiment.
Conclusion : The deal has strong long-term potential and may support a short-term bounce in Nifty, but markets may stay cautious until clarity on timelines and details.
US Markets End Higher Ahead of Fed Meet & Mega Earnings - Jan 26, 2026
Dow Jones +314 pts (+0.6%)
Fed in Focus
Big Earnings This Week (Magnificent 7)
Geopolitics Driving Volatility
Gold at Record High
Oil Slightly Lower
Why the deal matters
Auto stocks fell (-0.9%)
Metals shine (+3.1%)
~150% gain (vs 2300% in 1970s, 650% in 2000s)
Suggests the cycle may still be in its early/mid stage
Key Drivers
Heavy global debt
Bottom line:
Why gold corrected • Warsh nomination reduced fears of Fed interference
Bottom Line While the budget focused on long-term development and manufacturing, higher STT and lack of FII triggers dampened near-term market sentiment, leading to a sharp sell-off.
Trump Announced Trade Deal with India | GIFT Nifty Surges to 25,850
