How reliable is GIFT Nifty in terms of predicting the Indian market open? To To visualize the correlation, I guess, one could plot the value of GIFT Nifty at 9:00 AM against the opening value of Nifty 50 on corresponding days. Where can one find the historical GIFT Nifty time wise data- specifically the value at 9:00 AM. Nifty open is of course easily available.
GIFT Nifty is only a guide to the direction that the indicies could open, either green or red. In terms of exact percentage change, GIFT Nifty does a poor job but most of the times you will get the idea.
to be honest it doesn’t really matter on typical trading days. no one can predict whether the candle will be green (or red) for the day, if it is gapping up (or down). the market may gap up in the open but then begin to create a red candle (open=high). so now what about your trading plans analyzing 9am prices? to obtain a sense of how the market is doing that day, one often waits for at least 15 min to 1 hour. yes, you get a broad notion if you already have a position from yesterday, but again, this is a trade that was taken yesterday, so you cannot make any exits ‘after the market’ simply by observing gift nifty.
we do see a large margin which is helpful if it’s a major day - not denying that, like an election or anything. again helpful in situations like adr’s crashing, etc. however, according on my perspective, it won’t make sense to simply spend time analyzing gift nifty and nifty openings in order to obtain a working algo to succeed in ideas for what you’re looking for. gift nifty = just an idea on where my line chart might be heading.
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Makes sense.
On that note, plainly out of curiosity, am thinking what is the typical profile of folks who trade in GIFT Nifty- specially after 3:30 pm IST. I would reckon typical retailers- resident individuals- are not allowed. So must be institutions only. Given the GIFT Nifty operational timings, would these be domestic or foreign. What are the typical voumes fo rthis instrument? I mean yesterday on Thanksgiving who are the folks trading GIFT Nifty at say 01: 00 AM IST