Between 2020-2025,
here’s the typical# experience based on asks/bids (in addition to trades)
of GSECs, T-Bills, and SDLs on NSE and BSE.
# - Sustained, extremely volatile market periods supported significantly higher volumes.
Yield-range | The associated Liquidity, Volume, … |
---|---|
6-8% | Several Crores of INR within seconds, 9 out of 10 days in the market. |
8-9% | Tens of Lacs of INR within an hour, most days in a week. |
9-10% | Lacs of INR within a day, on few days in a month. |
10-20% | Lacs of INR, for a few minutes each time, random times each month. |
The astute-minded individual will note that
even though there are instances of double-digit returns even in sovereign bonds,
to successfully act in such scenarios,
one needs to hold the capital without deploying it for quite some time,
i.e. wait for several days at a time without earning anything on the capital.
So,
while a ~0.5% actual return on a T-Bill in a week
(buy it at 99.50 INR, matures at 100 INR in a week)
yields us ~25% annualized rate of return,
while waiting for such an opportunity to arise,
having to hold the capital in one’s trading account a month without deploying it,
makes it effectively earn a “0.5% return in a month” i.e. a ~6% annualized return.
Markets vary over time, and success requires planning and patience in this market as well.
From memory, i can recall a 96% yield on a sovereign bond,
(purchased a T-bill at 95INR which matured at 100INR in 20days)
during a period of extreme volatility in the stock market,
when sovereign bonds were also trading at deep discounts on their face-value.
Here’s how a game of “musical chairs” played out in the bond market…
During the volatile period,
presumably, several individuals/institutions that held GSECs/SDLs/T-Bills
were liquidating them on NSE/BSE,
to immediately re-invest the proceeds into some “solid stock”
that had dropped to an all time low in the turbulent market.
As a bond buyer in such market scenarios,
one is “selling liquidity” at a premium
and can charge handsomely for it.
(all with near-zero credit-risk if buying sovereign bonds)
Determining whether it is ethical behavior to
support/enable such “greater fools” to take risks in a volatile market,
is left as an exercise for the reader