HDFC Bank stock price on 13th July - increase or decrease?

Stocks
1

Hey,
HDFC Bank stock price on 13th July - increase or decrease?
Since HDFC will delist from the market and also HDFC bank will replace HDFC on MSCI global standard index from July 13.

News - HDFC Bank to replace HDFC on MSCI global standard index from July 13 | Mint #AskBetterQuestions

2

A random guess is in between 1800 - 2400 (or something at premium).

3

Thanks. But you think the price of HDFC bank will rise on the 13th?
I feel it will fall as the msci adjustment factor is 0.5 and that means outflows of funds. and that will reflect in nse with the stock price of HDFC bank going down.
Or do you think due to adding of the valuation of HDFC to HDFC bank, there will be increase in the valuation of the merged entity and thus the price will increase?

4

I don’t know about on the 13th, but it is common sense that the value should increase in the future, surpassing the current level of 1600’s, especially considering the combined value of these two large entities. However, if it doesn’t happen, then we might witness another situation similar to the LIC evaluation :wink:

5

Need to know how NSE is reconfiguring the index weight to assess if there will be inflow or outflow. If anyone has seen that circular, please pass it around.

6

MSCI has an adjustment factor of 0.5 for sure.
Nifty I don’t know.
As the other point - I understand what you are saying. Similar happened to CarTrade today on the positive news of acquisition of OLX auto on reasonable valuation.
Should be clear tomorrow whats the scene.
Any counter point you all think might cause the HDFC Bank price to fall?
Seems unlikely to me as a lot of value is coming in the company through the merger and the market cap should ideally reflect that.

7

Not for Nifty, but something like BN will be skewed further.