I have a bad feeling about the markets

Since Fed 21, the markets have been stuck in a range. This is quite normal after this spectacular run-up. But I have a bad gut feeling about the markets.

What do you think?

If you execute your trades based on “gut feelings” then you have already lost.


How bad is it?

1k, 2k, 4k or 7k bad from here?

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I think Nifty should test 12k one time before making new highs this year

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never test your gut my friend…just follow smart money (especially FII flow on daily/wkly/mthly basis) & it should help you…

with covid cases increasing in country… if government decides to take tough steps… indian markets are surely in for correction…

The gut already performs important functions like digestion, absorption of nutrients and the excretion of waste, and you want to also use it to feel and think. Don’t overwork your guts :stuck_out_tongue:


I think:

  1. People who were finding Nifty from 10k to 14k as overvalued, are the same people who are finding a 3-5% correction now as buying opportunity.

  2. People are thinking that once market goes down, it always bounces back as it happened last year. So they are prone to invest more seeing dips as opportunity even if it requires to borrow or loan money or sell household jewellery etc. Until they run out of money.

  3. Until WB election and Kumbh Mela gets over, central Govt won’t take any strict action on controlling the surge. Not upsetting Hindu voters and Hindu religious sentiments looks like a priority.

  4. Until mass level spread and uncontrollable death rate happen where common people get a hard jolt, it would not affect the market. Remember, the frog is in the pot of cold water which is heating up slowly. At first the frog would find it nice warm cozy and by the time it understands that water has started to boil, it would be too late. That’s what is the situation from covid and from economy point of view.

  5. Before any crash, it would show false projection of immunity from external forces and covid wave.


isn’t that what market is doing now…??

Yes. But the other forces are also acting along like people buying at dips finding it as an opportunity. So two forces negating each other. Until there is a breakthrough for the virus for example (and just for the sake of giving example without any ill intention), markets would get affected if and only if tomorrow Modi or Ambani or Tata and the like are tested positive and if there is any unfortunate news that follows. Until then markets would feel cozy enough.

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The West Bengal Assembly election will end on April 29.
Result date: May 2, Sunday.

500,000 cases a day by early may. (currently 350,000 "official reported new cases " ( conservative estimate under reported by a factor of 10)
800,000 to 1 million cases a day by Peak of the current wave (Mid may ) ----------------------
In an interview that will frighten people and perhaps unnerve the government, one of America’s most highly regarded epidemiologists and biostatisticians has said mathematical projections she has done suggest India could have 500,000 daily Covid cases and 3000 daily Covid deaths by the 1st of May. However, Prof Bhramar Mukherjee (Univ of Michigan) that in terms of infections the peak will come in mid-May when India could see 8-10 lakh daily infections and in terms of deaths the peak will be two weeks later in end May when India could expect 4500 daily deaths.**

we have to wonder where bank nifty & nifty will be under this negative news barrage

as i had hinted few days back…just follow smart money…we have hit 15000 on nifty from 14300. corrections would always be there but long term investors should keep their gut etc aside & keep accumulating…

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A stock market crash is unlikely, because now people are equating crash with boom, after what happened last year.

Fear of stock market crash is more or less subdued, but there could be fear for life in many. Whether vaccine will counter that, or whether fear for life will trickle to the markets, that remains to be seen.

2 covid deaths (both under 60) in my small colony in the past week. And around 5% are either infected or were infected previously. Vaccines should help, has to help!

I am diabetic and have chronic chest congestion. If I am infected, my chances are probably not the best, even though I am young(ish)…


take care buddy…we are witnessing an unprecedented/biggest threat in our history…these days would also pass though its taking ages. its unfortunate & really sad to see so many deaths

As long as central Banks use the QE weapon, as long as the super rich don’t get bankrupt, as long as stellar figureheads do not die of covid- the market will continue on and on.

Even if the economy is staring down the barrel.

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