Greetings and Best wishes of 2018 to all Zerodha Traders/Investors & to Zerodha , and Trading Q&A viewers/visitors
This thread is a continuation of earlier one with slight name change focused on Index analysis based on TA / Charts but not recommendations only sharing analysis & update
Coming to indices , in the last post on 28-12-2017 i wrote that market may drop to the level of 10400 due to Reliance& that is happening.
Bank nifty continue to be a weak index. My sense is that market is in a range bound with 500 points range , sharp corrections are possible.( within this range ) Individual stocks, Pharma and smaller PSU Banks may perform if Nifty does not hold 10400 - 10415 level there will be a sharp correction to 10250 level & again if that level does not hold next level will be 10190- 10000. corresponding level for Bank nifty is 25150 - 25020 if these levels does not hold on BN there will be a sharp correction.
Resistance for nifty being 10530 / 10490 / 10475-473 Support level being 10430 / 10415 / 10400 / 10308 - 300 / 10270 - 265 / 10190
For BN Resistance being 25388 /25428 / 25440 / 25466 support being 25265 / 25250 / 25200 /25150 / 25145 / 24950
Support level for Reliance being 907 / 905 / 898 for HDFC Bank 1850 /1843 / 1837 / 1831
bro, bank nifty is in correction for two weeks
previous week time wise and last week price wise
i
according to me one that thing is weak which doesn’t more or poor volume
in this market even fall is better than rally, as fall gives fast return
and in whole year 1000’s of events and 1000’s of news will come, it’s such a large time even fii’s such huge investors can’t do that, finding levels for 12 months means one is considering himself above market
The analysis , which i am posting is on daily/weekly basis , Its not based on Yearly basis , Header may be giving you a wrong impression to you , let me change the header at the end of the day , if possible read my earlier posts, I am not above or below the market , i am just following / with the market many people are not able to or Don’t read between the lines , no problem, Thank you for your reply
what this means, you are assuming range bound market with sharp correction
even a person who is unknown to market can say such things, like: market will go up from here or down
assume one thing and let’s see what future has in it
Market action seems to be a slow grinding action towards downside , considering Nifty closing basis points. Sharp movements are possible in between the range of Nifty . Bank nifty continues to be a weak index, HDFC Bank supporting BN from dropping down further but weak PSU Banks & other private banks may drag down BN., 10400 to 10419 area being a good support level for Nifty .Since momentum indicators are not in either oversold or overbought conditions, there will be a high volatility,. Shorting at higher level will be a good trading strategy.
Resistance level for Nifty being 10530 /10495- 490 / 10475 - 10473 Support level being 10430 / 10415 / 10400 / 10395- 387 / 10373 / 10308 / 10270
For BN 25388 / 25428 / 25440 / 25466 / 25393 support being 25316 / 25250 / 25236 / 25138
Resistance for Reliance being 918 /913 support being 907 /905/ 898 For HDFC Bank support being 1868 / 1862 / 1854 / 1850
Apart from Index analysis , i found that Market gyrations makes some traders/investors , gets tense & Frustrated , Out of frustration that person try to bully someone and opens his abusive mind . I pity that trader, i sympathize and wish good health to him
Thank you for fellow Traders/Investors for giving me a confidence that , i didn’t wasted your time.
Well as i mentioned yesterday volatility will continue & weekly BN expiry will further add to volatility . Nifty formed H&S formation and also double top on daily chart ( same patterns made by Nifty in the month of Nov 2017) Again shorting at higher level seems to be a good strategy ( bought Nifty PUT options, now in the money , let me see what happens tomorrow)
Buying stocks in cash seems to be a bit risky, volume can be reduced, Tomorrows market action is important , as Nifty nearing 10400 - 10419 level . in case that level does not holds on closing basis , Nifty may drop to 10270- 10250 level. If nifty close below 10270 level continuously on closing basis , is a concern on longterm trend. Compared to Nifty Long term chart of BN & PSU Bank index charts are not encouraging one , which will impact Nifty. Important levels for BN being 25230/ 25145 / 25018
Resistance for Nifty being 10532 / 10495/10487/ 10459/ 10475/ 10459/ Support being 10422/ 10412 / 10387-10383/ 10373 / 10270
Resistance for Bank nifty being 25564/ 25511 / 25413 / 25393/ 25361 support being 25316/ 25262/ 25249/ 25230/25203/25145/25018/ 24894
Reliance support being 911/ 910/ 904/ 894/ 887 HDFC Bank support being 1848/ 1843/1840/ 1833/ 1827
Todays market action does not changed much on intermediate chart , only risk has been increased, Since long term trend on Nifty is not weakened , narrow range trading phase may continue. At opening Nifty did shown weakness, and todays market action seems to be influenced by stronger global indices,PSU Bank recap bonds issue & & weekly Bank nifty expiry. Bank nifty not able to close above 25500 & slowely its longterm trend being weakening. On 1st Jan 2018, i did mentioned about Pharma & smaller PSU Bank stock , that trade worked-out today ( holding Dena Bank & United Bank )
Reliance is able to pull back today, but still its weekly chart is negative.and same condition for HDFC Bank
Resistance for Nifty being 10515/ 10531/ 10557/ 10568/ 10606/ support being 10490 / 10475/ 10460/ 10426-422/ 10370
Resistance for BN being 25531/ 25564/ 25603/ 25708/ support being 25420/ 25393/ 25316/ 25249-243 /
For Reliance resistance being 922/ 925-26/ 933 support being 919/ 916/ 913/ 907/ 905
HDFC bank support being 1859/ 1857/ 1854-53/ 1847/ resistance being 1865/ 1868/ 1872
Market able to close slightly above narrow range channel, Long term trend being good , but not much action from the market leadres like Reliance & HDFC Bank , Apart from other Banking/Financial /Pharma , Telecom stocks moved Nifty, its difficult to say , whether market move up like a missile or fall back to narrow range going forward. Nifty closed just by 1.85 points above resistance level , which i mentioned yesterday. Today if Nifty closed above 10568 level, there was a chance of Nifty closing at 10600 level
Like yesterday Trading in Pharma & smaller PSU bank stocks worked-out( Holding Marksans Pahrma) Pharma Index seems to be bottomed-out, any negative news( If media brings any USFDA warning letter/Inspection news) is a chance to buy pharma stocks.
Reistance for Nifty being 10568 / 10577/ 10594/ 10606/ 10710 Support being 10557 / 10548/ 10531/ 10512/ 10490/ 10475/ 10422
Bank nifty Resistance being 25662/ 25709/ 25726/ support level 25580 / 25520/ 25439
Reliance resistance being 926/930/933 support level 919/916/913 HDAFC Bank resistance being 1869-68/1874 support being 1861/1856/1854
These are chart observations not recommendations
Just like yesterday , gap up opening and not much action from HDFC bank & Reliance is a concern , Since market is at lifetime high , its difficult to know how much it will go up, just possibilities , it may reach or may not reach 10750 to 10900 level , so just posting “possible” resistance & support level for nifty
Resistance level being 10671 / 10710 / 10891 / support being 10614 / 10594 / 10568/ 10508 / 10471/ 10454
Bank nifty resistance being 25697/ 26010/ 25740 support being 25619 / 25569 /
Reliance needs to close above 932 level to come out from the daily consolidation mode ,but negative on weekly chart, while market is making lifetime high , HDFC Bank is going down , is a concern , all its short & long term charts are negative. Important level for HDFC Bank being 1839 & 1828, if these levels not holds, next possible level for HDFC Bank being 1700 and also SBIN chart being negative , If SBI does not hold 302 level there will be a larger correction on SBI
Pharma is doing much better be it small( another 5 % up on Marksans Pahrma) or Large cap , so Pharma seems to be better sector going forward
Todays market action seems to be correct & consolidate , possibilities of gap down opening tomorrow, since Reliance come out of its consolidation mode, may support the Nifty. But in case of Bank nifty , its negative & concern is the sharp intra-day drop in HDFC Bank on last hour. It seems that market may correct & consolidate and move up again.
Interestingly many of the NCLT related stocks are moving ( traded Blue Blends )
Resistance level for Nifty being 10662/10671/ 10710 Support being 10632 / 10615/ 10606/ 10594/ 10575-531 / 10509-500 / 10455/ 10385
Resistance for Bank Nifty being 25708/ 25753/ 25800/ 25893/ Support being 25665/25651/ 25613/ 25600/25597/ 25522/ 25491/25372
Support level for HDFC Bank being 1862/1858/1855/ 1849/1839
Reliance Support being 939/936/ 931
SBIN managed to hold 302 level, again tomorrow also 302 level for SBI being a important level and todays trade action seems to be that SBIN may not hold this level and if that happens next support for SBIN being 289 Some more correction on Pharma index being a buying opportunity in Pharma sector
Expected gap-down opening , but Nifty future did by a negligible points, again tomorrow One more possibility of gap-down opening expecting,Especially on Bank Nifty , more decline expecting on Bank Nifty. if not gap-down opening , intra day decline , consolidation may happen like today. SBIN broke down below 302 level, expecting much more lower level, and also SBIN chart is resembling PSU Bank index chart, other PSU Bank will do the same thing as SBIN.
Crude oil spike may be good for Reliance but spike in oil exploration companys price is risky one to buy them at present.
Resistance for Nifty being 10661/10671 Support level being 10626-615/ 10590 -597 / 10568-563/ 10530/ 10522/ 10518- 508/ 10495-491/ 10460
support levels are for bank nifty being 25604/25586/25556-25555/ 25523/ 25495-491/ 25432/ 25342-345/25240
support levels for Reliance being 941/939/935/925 HDFC Bank support level being 1861/1850/1839/1828
SBIN Resistance level being 304/302 support level being 298/296/289/284
marubozu get created day before yesterday and i boight idfc bank on closing price but next day i came in loss .
zerodha varsity say if bullish marubozu creayex then buy @ closing n close= high
Best wishes of Makara Sankranti to all
On daily chart Nifty is at overbought level , be cautious , trade keeping stop-loss level of 10650 /10610
Being cautious , Market may run up till the Union budget , I am restraining myself to post about the market
Ups and down are the part of trade. Market always taste the of the trader/investor. Since the trade is not closed yet, you might recover your losses from this, but the chances are low.
Zerodha Varsity also state that, when RSI is greater than 80, look for shorting opportunity, since the stock is overbought.
If you are asking me , please write clearly , what do you want to know /say , If i can understand a bit , IDFC Bank was a news driven stock and also run up a lot from the level of 54 , many traders taken profit at this level and also while taking trade ,on a particular stock , don"t go, just by looking at Candle stick pattern
