This is the moot question which is on the minds of bulls and especially, bears.
Western countries are facing severe 3rd world problems
This war has without a doubt started crushing the backbone of the western economy (pumping money and exporting inflation)
But, what this war has done is : completely made the previous reckless monetary policy tools by central banks impotent as money can be printed but food, oil and energy can’t.
For how long can India be immune to global economy weakness ?
Looking at the extremely short term - not too long as FII may have to cover their losses there by exiting some of their holdings in markets which are doing okay.
But, If we increase the time horizon to let’s say 3-12 months, our markets kind of become counter intuitively positive as the deflationary forces in global economy like low oil help our domestic economy.
So, yeah it’s safe to say that India is becoming a hedge in these tough times. Hedge which may give higher gains or lower losses relatively.
Because at least we will have food, as we are agriculture rich country. Of course it depends on rainfall, crop output, but generally speaking. Also, geographically, culturally, psychologically we are a different breed, so sometimes we are not that effected.
Cant say the same for the market participants though, their pendulum changes
Of course, as we now live in interconnected economies, there will be some impact, how much I don’t know, but markets usually fall more, as they react more both in times of good and bad.
And if indeed there will be a fall like scenario, effecting our economy too, I don’t know which products’ prices will go up from our imports, which we really need, direct products or parts or commodities, and what will the regulatory authorities do to curb or minimize the damage.
Short sellers will have field days and I guess many of the members here will welcome such falls, if they don’t have any investments for long term
As i see Markets are going to be good, little bit of fall can come but in the end FII will return as the supply and demand in general is on growth in India. Recently SBI said India is seing Tina effect right now which means we are right now the hotspot for investment also for coming years too.
Unless China or Joe Biden has some bad plans to hurt India. Right now both of them hate Modi Government strong stand on Indian foreign policy.
China giving stress to USA is very good for India as they need us. China invading taiwan is very crucial for USA but in the mean time Biden can do something in India to replace the current government. The have their plans as i can see which will eventually make India unstable economy. Which is not good for future growth.
But right now everything is going Okay for say
just this Ukrain war is a pain for fuel prices this is also in a way helping us reducing Dollar dependency by trading in domestic currency with each country.
Right now I want to know the recession impact on IT sector will they grow or loose in Europe and in USA in these conditions.
they replace the government they hate that’s what they do. Please see their past action. They know Indias key pressure points. And India is very crucial for them ( means europe and usa) in a way India has been a vassal state for European neo Roman Empire.
You must look at how many government America has replaced when things go against their plan.
Biden favors China as Democrates are socialist ( liberal communists).
please read between the line see at some stages how our foreign minister has told them to stop pushing India and they are now hating this. So as i see they will do something we must be careful.
If China invades Taiwan then pressure will be on them to support us and also ask support form us till then they are playing games.
I am relatively familiar about what US has done in the past to dethrone incumbents and put someone else in their place, but this has happened elsewhere, Central America, Afghanistan, Middle East etc. and not with us, never heard of this, nor I think it is possible to propagate their agenda, create propaganda, into our very many states.
So while I know that US has the might to interfere in foreign policy matters and twist our arm and even make us face problems with our imports, I don’t think it can influence our politics and change the regime.
CIA killed LAL BAHADUR SHASTRI JI , Homi Bhabha for nuclear power in India. They killed many nuclear scientists for their agenda. But now the stakes seems high for them. I pray nothing will happen but the info i get is CIA is activating Qatar vector for riots in India. Many Khalistani sikhs are in America, Canada, Europe and one state assembly in USA has recognized the kahlistan recently. They are doing things and i am getting worried about this something is going on creepy there. this all i heard from a RAW officer on youtube. They were talking about some sub vectors usage.
As long as India can sustain the financial impact from Dollar index to inflation till then We Can see some contraction & tightening in policies & other things to fight. Once this is break we can see downfall in near term if FII & DII selling pressure comes in. Also global economy pressure btw China & Taiwan taking a crucial turn, if it converts in to war then might be selling pressure any time which will impact chip industries, auto, electronics & then might not sustain btng new low or covid low.
US economy is impacting the global market as well which can be another reason if federal starts increase interest rates again & thei recession impact.
As still in Indian markets we are seeing all things - greed to fear so its consolidation time In near term, once this converts to fearful then all will start selling nobody knows when the time will come.
Right now I feel market is at a premium of around 2 to 3 percent. Not more than that. This is on the basis of fundamental analysis. And we are like 14 percent away to 20k. So total we may need a good growth of around 16 percent. Considering the constitutions of nifty I feel it’s very much possible. If IT reverses from here and sees a upside of 10 percent, that in itself be equal to 3 percent in nifty. Then there are hdfc twins. If merger is completed we may see some upside here too. Reliance is also yet to move big. So I am taking this guess of 20k.
Technically you guys understand better. I don’t.
So yes. You can call it a guess. Or gut feeling. Or anything.
Adding to what Jason bro has just rightly mentioned,
Markets are always attracted to obvious round figure numbers n milestones. 20k being the biggest one to watch out - should ideally be the target if not more
if not more