IPO Allotment probability calculation

Stocks IPOs
1

Can anyone here help me to understand IPO allotment probability calculation.
Suppose, there are 1 lakhs lot available for retail investors in an IPO and the applications received are 20 lakhs (assuming 1 lot is applied for in each application). Now I have made application for 1 lot. Then the probability of me receiving allotment is 1/20 or 5%. But suppose I have made 4 applications from different accounts (different PAN Cards).
Then what is the probabilty of me receiving -
1- One lot
2- At least one lot
3- Two lots
4 - At least two lots
5- Three lots
6- At least three lots
7-All four lots .

It would be greatly helpful if anyone here can help me understand these calculations.
Thanks
@nithin @Karthik

2

when IPO is over subscribed the allotment in retail category is done randomly…

Quoting this MC article:

When a public issue is oversubscribed, the number of retail investors who can be allotted shares is computed by dividing the number of equity shares available for allotment to retail investors by the minimum bid lot.

Applying this method to Zomato IPO… the number of shares offered in retail category is 129,558,333; dividing this by lot size of 195 gives us number of applications that will receive at least one lot of allotment… which is 664,401.

you’ve made applications from different accounts which can increase your chances but it’s not guaranteed that you will receive allotment…

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