IronFly with No Loss Strategy Pay Off Graph and Other payoff graphs

Abhilash_Patil · April 12, 2022, 5:49pm

Hi,

Today I found one post on Twitter post iron fly in which max loss is also positive.Sharing some images of Payoff Graph shared by users.

Snap 1-

Snap 2-

Snap 3-

In All 3 Snaps P&L both are positive,as this was first time for me to find such strategy where P&L both are positive , it was hard to believed for me. As Snap 1 was incomplete by user so I cannot decode the trades.

I tried decoding the trades taken in Snap 2 having P&L positive. The Screenshot of Snap 2 is taken on Date 12 APR 2022 9:33 AM.

Total 11 trades are taken to get the payoff graph in snap 2. All trades are of same expiry 13 APR 2022.

Based on prices of options/trades in snape2 I am able to get the timing of Trades are executed.

First 5 Trades are exectued on 8 APR 2022 9:20AM.

Date	4/8/2022  9:20AM
Particular	Value
Script	BNF
Spot Price	37600
CE Strike, Sell	37600
PE Strike, Sell	37600
CE Strike, Buy	38400
PE Strike, Buy	36800
PE Strike, Buy	37000
CE Premium received for short	484
PE Premium received for short	488
CE Premium paid for Long	184
PE Premium paid for Long	199
PE Premium paid for Long	201

On next Day 11 APR 2022 9:20 AM, two trades/options are added as below.

Date        11/4/2022  9:20AM
CE Strike, Buy   38200
PE Strike, Buy   37200

CE Premium paid for Long   179
PE Premium paid for Long   177

on Same Day 11 APR 2022 at 1 PM, two more options are added.

PE Strike, Buy   37500
PE Strike, Buy   37400

PE Premium paid for Long   185
PE Premium paid for Long   160

On Next Day means “Today”, 12 APR 2022 9:15AM , Two more Options/Trades are added.

CE Strike, Buy    37700
CE Strike, Buy    38000

CE Premium paid for Long   135
CE Premium paid for Long   149

I checked Net Debit/Credit and P&L of all options till today 11 APR EOD (3:30 PM).

I found Net Debit is Negative and P&L for this strategy gone negative currently… But in Opstra Payoff Graph showing Net loss in +ve Rupees which is contradicting the option prices.

Can anyone check this strategy in @Sensibull for payoff graph and do let me know if there exist any strategy where P&L Both are positive.

Trades for 13 APR Expiry BNF	Premium in Points
37600 CE	488
37600 PE	484
38400 CE	-184
36800 PE	-199
37000 PE	-201
38200 CE	-179
37200 PE	-177
37500 PE	-160
37400 PE	-185
37700 CE	-135
38000 CE	-149
Net Debit	-448

P&L in Rs

12/04/2022 EOD

Trades    	P&L
37600 CE	4975
37600 PE	9225
38400 CE	-4150
36800 PE	-4625
37000 PE	-4575
38200 CE	-3575
37200 PE	-3625
37500 PE	-1875
37400 PE	-3175
37700 CE	2000
38000 CE	-1450
Net Debit	-10850

Other Payoff Graphs-

BatMan Payoff graph by twitter.com/dtbhat

Snap-

Resource-Stuck in Short Straddle and Short Strangle? Try this instead
Snap-

Thank You !!!

arun_T · April 13, 2022, 4:42am

Opstra don’t consider bid ask. It just consider LTP. In reality it is not the case.

Abhilash_Patil · April 13, 2022, 6:39am

So such payoffs is not possible in reality , correct?

Hardeep · April 13, 2022, 10:51am

Correct bro

GoutamHebbar · April 13, 2022, 2:51pm

Its correct only when there is price mismatch. You gain when somebody else makes a mistake.

Abhilash_Patil · April 14, 2022, 6:37am

but twitter guys are treating it as strategy as per them it’s minting money.

Anyway’s the guy who is doing paid webinars definitely minting money,can’t say about audience.

If someone can make youtube vid on this strategy, would like to know logic behind this strategy!!!

Promotional post’s more similar payoff snaps on twitter

twitter posts

Snap-

Thanks!!!

GoutamHebbar · April 15, 2022, 1:27pm

I sense like they are tweaking some data which I’m not sure. The IV Spot all are set to Zero. The profit probability is showing as 99.5% hence there is no question of loss but I haven’t seen something like this.
I will reply to the thread as soon as I get something strong on this.

All of these are screenshots from Opstra website which is not a broker or anything like that.

jashjacob · April 19, 2022, 2:32am

@Abhilash_Patil These opstra screenshots are adjusted positions payoff charts.

These positions are added over a couple of days during the expiry.

With these screenshots alone you cannot decode the entry and the exit price for the individual strikes.

Abhilash_Patil · April 26, 2022, 10:00am

Yes , Correct.

I tried it Today by myself, able to make one leg risk free, with 4k (Max Loss) on other leg n BNF.

Hoping BNF will go up from here till expiry, as NF is highly bullish on 5 min timeframe.

Snap-

arun_T · May 15, 2022, 2:57am

Now if market move up you move your put buy up and then the graph will become no loss
Different ways of cheating people.

arun_T · May 15, 2022, 3:03am

Some of these images got loss though the title says “No Loss”
It is easy to do such positions. We decide till where the protection should be till 32000 or 30000.
WhatsApp

This is last month expiry

There is always risk involved but stating “no loss” is gimmicks

Abhilash_Patil · May 17, 2022, 6:21am

True, There always Risk of Making Loss, also in “NO LOSS” strategy if markets continues to move in either direction and don’t give reversal, which is required to make both legs Free “No Loss”. It works mostly but last week Market moves from 17000 to straigt 16000 with no reversal, this is where the “MAX PAIN” lies.

Better Avoid Iron Condor(IC)/ Iron Fly(IF), when Vix moves above 20, Weekly Mean Reversion of NF is more than 1.5% as per last 1 year data. Markets Tends to be directional and option sellers Loses the edge.

Interactive Chart of Webpage created by this guy-
NF Mean Reversion Returns on Expiry Day(Thursday)

Snap- NF Mean Reversion From Thrusday to Thursday, Assuming we are initiating Iron FLY, IC on Thrusday EOD.

Reverse Buying Vid on Youtube to make IF Free(No Loss) Strategy
Reverse Buying Adjustment, How to make Iron Fly Free

viswaram · May 17, 2022, 12:16pm

A simple iron fly on weekly time frame + intraday firefighting will ensure you will not have a weekly loss.

I have been doing this quite profitably for last 1 year.

Abhilash_Patil · June 16, 2022, 5:42pm

If possible pls share adjustment ,it will be helpful/informative.

Weekly Strategy-

NIFTY BATMAN or Double Butterfly-

I won’t do any adjustment as I will be losing only 2k.

Trade initiated on 15 Jun Wed 3 PM.
Margin Requirement- 120K

LOT SIZE- 50	
NF SPOT on 15 Jun Wednesday 3 PM-  15700 for 23 June Expiry !!!
Will Exit Strategy on Expiry Day-23 June
					
	Strike Price	Type	Buy/ Sell	Price	Qty.
	16100	         CE	      Sell	      88	100
	16000	         CE	      Buy	     101	50
	16300	         CE	      Buy	      35	50

					
					
	Strike Price	Type	Buy/ Sell	Price	Qty.
	15300	         PE	      Sell	      89	100
	15400	         PE	      Buy	      107	50
	15100	         PE	      Buy	       50	50

Payoff Graph-

ronin_sha · June 16, 2022, 6:46pm

Yo where do one get all this fancy names ?

viswaram · June 17, 2022, 4:05am

When do you plan to close this trade, the next day ?

you have written you take the position on wednesday 3pm, so you are planning for 1 DTE ?

Abhilash_Patil · June 17, 2022, 4:38am

Youtube/Internet Inventors of such strategies may be working in more advanced one’s while we are using it.

Abhilash_Patil · June 17, 2022, 4:50am

My bad, I forget to mention Expiry, above contract are for 23 Jun Expiry, and will exit trade on Expiry Day 23 June.

For 1 DTE getting such premiums is not possible. Will exit in 23 June weekly Expiry and not in 16 June Expiry.

Thumb Rule- More the number of Day’s to Expiry, More the premium, Lesser the risk!!!

Risk in terms of Risk/Reward Ratio.
Current R/R = 3k(min profit) / 2k(max loss) = 1.5

R/R goes down with decrease in number of day’s to Expiry.

viswaram · June 17, 2022, 5:14am

According to me, any adjustment on this strategy will not be favorable, because the Risk/Reward is > 0.5.

To do intraday option selling adjustment the Risk/Reward has to be lesser than 0.2
eg: Risk = 2000, Reward = 10000

Only then firefighting makes sense.

Abhilash_Patil · June 17, 2022, 6:33am

True…

Also the breakeven from Spot are 550 Points away for Nifty in PE and CE (each side).It needs extreme volatality like yesterday’s week to get into loss.

As Loss is just 2k, I can take it without getting panic and giving more brokerage to broker by making adjustments.

It can be done as long term strategy while initiating on Thurday or Wednesday for Next Weekly Expiry.

Stat’s- Backtested Results of Last 1 Year Data of NF on BATMAN Strategy

Mean Reversion Return’s when executing BATMAN on Thurdays EOD for upcoming(next) Weekly Expiry.

We have breakeven of 550 Point on Each (PE and CE) side, which is -3% to 3%.
NF weekly mean reversion returns between -3.1% to 3.1% is 82.35 %, which is probablity of profit.

NF weekly mean reversion returns between -3.1% to 3.1% is 82.35 % on last 1 year data

Viz-
NF_Mean_Reversion_Returns_on_Expiry%20Day(Thursday)

Probablity Distribution-

NF_Mean_Reversion_Probability_Distribution_on_Weekly_Expiry_(Thursday)

Mean Reversion Return’s when executing BATMAN on Wedesday EOD for upcoming(next) Weekly Expiry.

NF weekly mean reversion returns between -3.1% to 3.1% is 78.43 %,which is probablity of profit.

NF weekly mean reversion returns between -3.1% to 3.1% is 78.43 % on last 1 year data
BATMAN initiated on Wednesday and Closed on Next Thurday

Viz-
NF_Mean_Reversion_Returns_From_Wed(Close)_to_Next_Thu(Close)

Probablity Distribution-
NF_Mean_Reversion_Probablity_Distribution_From_Wed_to_Next_Thu

P.s- Open link of viz in mobile (in Desktop mode) or in laptop