Adding to winner (Pyramiding) can never beat Buy and Hold in stocks. But in commodities, this is the key 
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I totally disagree that every person can make money with Buy and Hold, If buy and hold is that easy why 90% people still losing money? Reality is you are smart enough to do swing trading or holding but there are a lot of people who don’t even know stock market exists. So to those people you are a gambler like you tell option traders that we are gamblers, But reality is like you are smart enough to develop a system that works for you like wise option trading also has a complete system then it becomes a business so there are people who are doing it and you are just playing blind folding yourself and don’t want to believe that there are more smarter people than you are!
" The media is full of stories of investors and employees who held on to stocks like Amazon, Google, and Tesla. But the performance of most stocks is a far cry from these exceptional successes.
Across the 25,967 stocks listed in the U.S. from 1926 to 2016, the most common one-decade buy-and-hold return was -100%. The conventional wisdom on long-term compounding rarely applies to concentrated stock positions — the risk of capital destruction is too high."
90% those who are loosing money are in f&0…not buy and hold according to sebi
Hi all people here, I have a question for you ,can you help?
If a stock is at 100 then which price it is more likely to hit next : 99 or 103?
What do you think?
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Sure! Generally, if a stock is at 100, it’s more likely to hit 99 next than 103. That’s because stocks often move in smaller steps, and a drop to 99 is a smaller move than a rise to 103. However, predicting stock prices is tricky and depends on many factors, so nothing is certain in the stock market!
ChatGPT Zindabad:
If a stock is at 100 then which price it is more likely to hit next : 99 or 103?
ChatGPT
Predicting the next price movement of a stock is inherently uncertain and influenced by many factors, including market conditions, company performance, and investor sentiment. However, if we were to consider a simplistic view without any other information, a stock at 100 might be more likely to hit 99 next, as it would only need a slight decrease, whereas reaching 103 would require a more significant increase.
If a stock’s at 100, the next likely stop is 99. It’s like stepping down a stair rather than jumping up two steps. But hey, in the stock market, surprises happen more often than not, so keep an eye out.
Yes that’s true. This is what some casually call law of proximity which says that a stock will hit a price that is closer to current price than the distant one .
For this reason , it is impossible to develop risk-reward strategies like 1:2 and 1:3. Since your SL is always closer to Entry Price than TP , your SL will be always hit much more than your Target Price.
For a 1:1 strategy your SL will hit 50% times and you will be net loser due to brokerage and other charges.
For a 1:2 strategy your SL will hit around 70% and you will lose even bigger.
For a 1:4 or 1:5 strategy your stop loss will hit 90% of times.
Bottomline is no way money can be made if one is doing 1:2 or 1:3 because of law of proximity.
I am writing this because too many YT shorts on my timeline are pretending that you can make money trading if you are right 50% of time and have RR of 1:2
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Then can we try 2:1 or 3:1 ?
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Not true.
Wins and losses adjust based on which is closer yes. So at 1:1 we can expect around 50% win rate after large sample of random trades. A bit less because of execution costs.
When we take entries with edge, not random, then things shift a bit. We can get say 60% win rate at 1:1. I have a system like that. But i don’t take it at 1:1 because its worse. Instead i reduce my win rate and increase my avg win and it does much better.
Where to keep stops and where to take not-stop-exits, is something to be tested. Different systems will have different optimal areas.
We will need 80% Win Rate to profitable with 2:1 . Even Technical Analyst gurus don’t promise that when selling their premium courses to us.
That is the exact problem. When backtested Technical analysis is no better than Coin Flip when it comes to outcome. Any ‘edge’ generated using TA is no better than random.
Assuming no transaction cost, one of them has to be profitable. Either it’s 1:2 or 2:1.
Fno is a zero sum game.
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Just out of curiosity, what do you think works in the market?
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Problem is in making an absolute statement like that. What you mean is that you couldn’t find something that was not like random entry. So you asked a question and then answered it yourself with no room for anything else. I do agree that there is no edge in R:R itself - that’s just nonsense as liquid markets are too efficient for that + costs…
Some very simple things do work. But it takes more effort in converting them in tradeable systems ( if possible, else edge is useless ) and we must execute with minimal/no error.
Lots of things in TA are probably garbage and superstitions though, so there is that.
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0DTE injections 
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Buy or sell? 
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right question is: only for the ones who can move the price.
first buy and sell, then short and cover…
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