ITC - long term investor
break down happen today 200 below its will go
Parag parig flexicap bought huge qty @325
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you mean it will fall below INR 200 TODAY. wow … praying … it happens and I can buy. For the last few days, been buying.
EPS - 15.86 PE - 16.76 at 265 per share, Div Yield - 5.47.
not today i mean time like next 2 quarter
SIN tax still not matched by WHO - there is more to increase tax on cigrate , since ITC doing lot of business - but 70% of profit is coming from cigrate only
so stock will never go up in next 5 years - dividend will be reduced in future , better in mutual fund - are purely dividend purpose Brookfield REIT is paying good dividend like 6% +
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SIN tax has been there for decades in western world (and in India too). Unfortunately more people are still getting drawn to ciggerate.
So I don’t think taxation is a big concern for ITC.
Current issue is due to big rejig in tax structure due to end of cess in GST, which ITC has not fully passed on to customers yet.
I think ITC will slowly pass on that in price hike, and over 2 quarters profit will go back to previous levels.
Bigger threat to ITC is if govt bans Cigarette totally (which I doubt govt has appetite for) or legalize vaping and e-cigerattes, opening up market to flood of global and chinese players.
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currently Maldives is fully ban on ciggerate and bhutan follows -
UAE recently increase 50% sin tax on ciggerate- and put strict rules no to sale below 22 currently
2027 january onwards saudi arabia ban ciggrate in public smoking- india definitely follows WHO in this matter
In India cancer hospital 80% of patient are smoker - lung cancer with non-small cells affected and spreading across country like passive smoking cancer - there is a chance another 50% increase on tax -
ITC will never escape from this episode
Yeah, I agree with this. The current issue seems more about the sudden tax structure change than the usual sin-tax argument.
What surprised me though is that cigarette volumes haven’t fallen as much as expected despite the price hikes. ITC’s volumes were down around 4–5%, but that was still much better than the 8–10% decline the market was expecting. (Source)
If ITC can pass on the remaining impact without hurting volumes much, the next couple of quarters could look quite different.
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There is a difference in following WHO guidance and banning cigarette completely. India has big Tobacco industry, and millions of people are dependent on it.
So while it is easy for Maldives or Bhutan to ban it, it is tough for India to ban completely.
Hell, we are unable to ban beedis yet.
Again I am not trying to defend smoking or ITC in anyways. All I am saying is that SIN tax has generally not had much impact on smoking levels globally.
Anyways, we all can wait for 2 quarters and see how this all plays out 
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it’s not the same original ITC that was few years ago. This is just a part of ITC. A fraction of the entire business after demerger. Maybe the other part is doing well ? correct me if i’m wrong ?
ITCHOTELS down 5% since demerger and 16% YTD. 
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Surely this is perfect to accumulate for long-term?
Never average individual stocks down, only broad index products! 
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If there is short-term bad news that sends a stock down but long-term solid business, that’s the perfect time to average down as no one can pick the bottom.
Whatever profits I have made is only by averaging. The exception being Yes Bank and Vedanta. All others in my list has made money. Recent example was Indus Bank. I sold when it was over 1200 and got it again when it was 700 plus after the news.
PS: this works for me but it does not mean it works for everyone.
Probably due to position sizing! 
What percentage of capital (total including all averaging 
) do you allocate to any single stock? 
No clue on this. All I do is buy with whatever money I have allocated for shares, I know my stocks, and buy and sell when it reach the pre determined price level set by me. The objective is to reduce the average cost of my stocks to closer to the face value of the company (ultimate objective) . Once it reach near to it, wont sell only accumulate… Achieved this with ITC, bought my first share in 2008 and many others like HUL, Icici Bank etc
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ITC will hold about 73.4 per cent in the merged company, which will have over 19,000 employees, serve 800 customers and target $1 billion in annual revenue by FY28
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Yeah Part 1 is here
Let’s see how does this impact volumes.
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Ohh I did not see this. No this is incorrect.
ITC is still the same, only a fraction of busienss, ITC hotels, which was heavy on capex but not a significant part of revenue and profit was demerged.
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