Welcome to Aftermarket Report, a newsletter where we do a quick daily wrap-up of what happened in the markets, both in India and globally.
In our latest episode of In The Money by Zerodha video series**,** we explore one of the most persistent and puzzling market anomalies ever documented—the Turn-of-the-Month (TOTM) effect, where a disproportionate share of equity returns appears to cluster around the turn of the calendar month.
Starting with its academic origins in the 1980s, we trace research by Ariel, Lakonishok and Smidt, and later McConnell & Xu, before moving into fresh data tests over the last decade across Nifty, Bank Nifty, Reliance, HDFC Bank, and SPY. By comparing Extended and Tight TOTM strategies through equity curves, drawdowns, trade stats, and year-wise performance, the focus stays less on blind replication and more on how to think about anomalies, robustness, market regimes, and disciplined strategy design.
Market Overview
Nifty opened with a 43-point gap-up at 26,173 but remained volatile right from the opening bell. The index swung sharply in the first hour, briefly testing the 26,180–26,190 zone before slipping toward 26,120–26,130, reflecting choppy and low-conviction trade. Through the late morning session, Nifty continued to oscillate in a narrow yet volatile range, marked by sharp intraday spikes and dips.
In the second half, the index attempted a mild recovery toward the 26,160–26,170 zone, but buying interest remained inconsistent. Post 2 PM, volatility persisted, with Nifty struggling to hold higher levels amid thin holiday participation. The index eventually closed near the lower end of the intraday range at 26,146.55, ending marginally flat for the day.
Among index heavyweights, ITC was the biggest drag, tumbling nearly 10% after the government announced an excise duty hike on cigarettes, effective February 1.
Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain sensitive to global risk appetite, currency movements, and further developments around India–U.S. trade negotiations.
Broader Market Performance:
The broader market had a mixed session slightly tilted towards bullish bias today. Out of 3,222 stocks that traded on the NSE, 1,681 advanced, while 1,448 declined, and 93 remained unchanged.
Sectoral Performance:
Nifty Auto emerged as the top gainer, rising 1.03%, while Nifty FMCG was the worst performer, falling sharply by 3.17%. Out of the 12 sectoral indices, 10 closed in the green and only 2 ended in the red, indicating broad-based buying with the exception of select defensives.
Here’s the trend of FII-DII activity from the last 5 days:
Change in OI for the day
The following is the change in OI for Nifty contracts expiring on 6th January:
- The maximum Call Open Interest (OI) is observed at 26,200, followed by 26,400, indicating potential resistance at the 26,200 -26,300 levels.
- The maximum Put Open Interest (OI) is observed at 26,000, followed by 26,100, suggesting support at the 26,000 to 25,900 levels.
Note: OI is subject to multiple interpretations, but generally, an increase in Call OI indicates resistance in a falling market, and an increase in Put OI indicates support in a rising market.
Source: Sensibull
Tijori is an investment research platform that has constructed niche indices for various themes and sub-sectors. They help you understand the market performance of narrow slices of the market. You can also track the Promoter buying and other interesting stuff, like Capex activity by the companies in the Tijori App’s idea dashboard
What’s happening in India
ITC and Godfrey Phillips shares fell sharply after the government notified additional excise duty on tobacco products effective February 1, replacing the existing GST compensation cess. Dive deeper
Vodafone Idea will receive ₹5,836 crore from its promoter Vodafone Group after a revised agreement to settle contingent liabilities related to the Vodafone Idea merger. Dive deeper
The government has made energy efficiency star labelling mandatory from January 1, 2026, for appliances including refrigerators, televisions, LPG stoves, cooling towers, and chillers. The move expands the scope of mandatory labelling, which was earlier voluntary for several of these products. Dive deeper
Hyundai Motor India has announced a marginal price hike of around 0.6 percent across its vehicle lineup from January 1, 2026, to partially offset rising input and commodity costs. Dive deeper
Commercial LPG cylinder prices have been hiked by ₹111 with effect from January 1, while domestic LPG cylinder rates remain unchanged. Dive deeper
Prism, the parent company of Oyo, has made a confidential filing for an initial public offering, marking its third attempt to go public. The company has approval to raise up to ₹6,650 crore, with final terms subject to market conditions. Dive deeper
Bagmane Prime Office REIT, backed by Bagmane Group, has filed draft papers with SEBI to launch a public issue to raise up to ₹4,000 crore. The IPO comprises a fresh issue of units worth ₹3,000 crore and an offer for sale of up to ₹1,000 crore. Dive deeper
Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency reported loan sanctions of ₹40,100 crore and disbursements of ₹24,903 crore in Q3, with its outstanding loan book rising to ₹87,975 crore. Dive deeper
Tarun Garg has been appointed as Managing Director and CEO of Hyundai Motor India Ltd, becoming the first Indian to lead the company in its 29 year history. Dive deeper
What’s happening globally
Crude oil prices fell to USD 57.42 per barrel on January 1, 2026, down 0.91% from the previous day. Prices are lower by 2.08% over the past month and 21.48% compared to a year ago. Dive deeper
Gold was trading at around $4,318 per ounce. Prices were marginally lower in the latest session. Dive deeper
Palladium futures slipped to around $1,590 an ounce after retreating from a three year high reached in late December. Dive deeper
Initial jobless claims in the US fell by 16,000 to 199,000 in the week ended December 27, coming in well below expectations. Continuing claims declined to 1.89 million, while claims filed by federal employees rose marginally, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Dive deeper
US crude oil inventories fell by 1.934 million barrels in the week ended December 26, marking the largest weekly draw since mid November. Gasoline and distillate stocks rose sharply, signalling continued oversupply, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Dive deeper
South Korea’s exports rose 3.8% in 2025 to a record USD 709.7 billion, crossing USD 700 billion for the first time. Semiconductor exports led the growth, while December shipments jumped 13.4% to a record high. Dive deeper
Boeing has secured a $2.7 billion contract from the U.S. Army for post production support services for Apache helicopters. The contract is scheduled to run through December 31, 2030. Dive deeper
Management chatter
In this section, we highlight interesting comments made by the management of major companies and policymakers from the Indian and Global Economies.
Anand Mahindra, Chairman, Mahindra Group, on AI and the future of work
“AI is an accelerator, not a threat, even as it reshapes industries.”
“As intelligent systems take over routine tasks, practical skills accelerated by AI will become premium assets.”
“AI can raise blue-collar work to a new level of long-term relevance, offering income and dignity.” - Dive deeper
Rishi Gupta, Managing Director & CEO, Fino Payments Bank, on transition to a Small Finance Bank
“We aim to transition to a Small Finance Bank within about 12 months, even though the regulator allows up to 18 months.”
“There is a lot of excitement across our merchant network and employees as we upgrade from a Payments Bank to an SFB.”
“We plan to invest around ₹100–150 crore over the next 3–4 years to build the technology stack required for lending operations.” - Link
Have you checked out The Chatter?
Every week, we listen to the big Indian earnings calls—Reliance, HDFC Bank, and even smaller logistics firms—and copy the full transcripts. We then remove the fluff and keep only the sentences that could move a share price: a surprise price hike, a cut-back on factory spending, a warning about weak monsoon sales, or a hint from management on RBI liquidity. We add a quick, one-line explainer and a timestamp so you can trace the quote back to the call. The whole thing lands in your inbox as one sharp page of facts you can read in three minutes—no 40-page decks, no jargon, just the hard stuff that matters for your trades and your macro view.
Go check out The Chatter here.
So, we’re now on Reddit!
We love engaging with the perspectives of readers like you. So we asked ourselves - why not make a proper free-for-all forum where people can engage with us and each other? And what’s a better, nerdier place to do that than Reddit?
So, do join us on the subreddit, chat all things markets and finance, tell us what you like about our content, and where we can improve! Here’s the link — alternatively, you can search r/marketsbyzerodha on Reddit.
See you there!
Calendars
In the coming days, we have the following significant events and corporate actions:
That’s it from us for today. We’d love to hear your feedback in the comments, and feel free to share this with your friends to spread the word!