Markets during coalition governments at the centre

Industry Insights
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Coalition Govts that completed full term

Start End Government Sensex
21-06-91 16-05-96 PV Narsimha rao led UPA 180.80%
19-3-98 22-05-04 Vajpayee led NDA 29.90%
22-05-04 22-05-09 Manmohan Singh led UPA - I 179.90%
22-05-09 26-05-14 Manmohan Singh led UPA - II 78%

Coalition Govts that didn’t serve the full term

Start End Government Sensex
02-12-89 10-11-90 V.P Singh led National front 95.60%
10-11-90 21-06-91 Chandra Shekar led Janata Dal -2.20%
16-05-96 01-06-96 Vajpayee led NDA -2.60%
01-06-96 21-04-97 HD Deve Gowda led United front 2.00%
21-04-97 19-3-98 I.K Gujral led United front 0.60%

Source: Business standard & Wikipedia

Markets didn’t really do that bad during coalition governments as I thought and if we look at the history, Coalition Governments seem like a norm and a full majority by single-party-led governments have been rare exceptions.

While past performance is no guarantee of how things will pan out in the future owing to innumerable variables that may or may not exist in the future. I think its safe to assume for now that irrespective of the Governments, The Indian economy and market’s growth story is well and truly intact.

Would love to hear your thoughts especially if its a counter argument :slight_smile:

3 Likes
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Okay before we discuss this, what is your opinion looking at the coalition partners. Will the NDA complete full term or maybe JDU will have second thoughts after Bihar elections in 2025.

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NDA will do the full term. JDU alone cannot swing it…

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The times that you have mentioned above - India was not a nation to reckon with, it was not seen as a force or an economy that warranted a stable Govt. However, times have changed and India is seen as the next big dominant economy in the world. So ensuring that a stable Govt. is in place is critical.