Markets sell off on geopolitical escalations and weak sentiment



Welcome to Aftermarket Report, a newsletter where we do a quick daily wrap-up of what happened in the markets, both in India and globally.

Before we begin, we’re heartbroken by the tragic plane crash in Ahmedabad today. Our thoughts and prayers are with the families and everyone affected.


Market Overview



The Nifty opened with a 23-point gap-up around 25,165 but slipped nearly 50 points in early trade. It then recovered to 25,190 within the first 20 minutes before witnessing a sharp 100-point sell-off to 25,100. The index remained mostly rangebound with a bearish undertone, gradually sliding to 25,030 levels. Around 1:15 PM, a sudden sharp sell-off dragged the index nearly 200 points lower to an intraday low of 24,825. In the final 90 minutes, the index moved in a narrow range between 24,860 and 24,920, eventually closing at 24,888.20, down 1%.

While the RBI’s sharper-than-expected rate and CRR cuts, coupled with stable global cues, provided early support, sentiment turned negative amid rising global uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, driven by escalating conflict between Iran, Israel, and the U.S, have led to a spike in oil prices. Additionally, trade-related concerns resurfaced after U.S. President Trump indicated he would soon send letters to trading partners outlining unilateral tariff rates.

Broader Market Performance:

Broader markets had a weak session today. Of the 2,969 stocks traded on the NSE, 783 advanced, 2,112 declined, and 74 remained unchanged.

Sectoral Performance:

All 12 sectoral indices ended in the red, marking a broad-based sell-off across the market.

  • Top losing sector: Nifty Realty, which fell the most by 2.02%, followed closely by Nifty Energy (-1.93%) and Nifty Consumer Durables (-1.92%).
  • Least affected sector: Nifty Pharma, which recorded the smallest decline of just 0.10%, making it the most resilient for the day.

In total, none of the sectors closed in the green, while all 12 ended in the red, reflecting widespread weakness, especially in rate-sensitive and consumption-linked segments.









Note: The above numbers for Commodity futures were taken around 5 pm. Here’s the trend of FII-DII activity from the last 5 days:



Change in OI for the day



The following is the change in OI for Nifty contracts expiring on 19th June:

  • The maximum Call Open Interest (OI) is observed at 25,200, followed closely by 25,100, suggesting strong resistance at 25,200 - 25,300 levels.
  • The maximum Put Open Interest (OI) is observed at 24,500, followed closely by 24,900, suggesting strong support at 24,800 to 24,600 levels.

Note: OI is subject to multiple interpretations, but generally, an increase in the call OI indicates resistance in a falling market, and an increase in the put OI indicates support in a rising market.

Source: Sensibull


Tijori is an investment research platform, and they have constructed niche indices for various themes and sub-sectors. They help you understand the market performance of narrow slices of the market. You can also track the Promoter buying and other interesting stuff like Capex activity by the companies in the Tijori App’s idea dashboard




What’s happening in India

India’s consumer inflation eased to 2.82% in May 2025, its lowest since February 2019 and below expectations, driven by a sharp fall in food prices. Inflation in housing, health, and transport categories remained steady or edged higher. Dive deeper



Adani Cement, through Ambuja Cements and ACC, was the lead supplier for the construction of the Chenab railway bridge, the world’s highest. It supplied 65,000 tonnes of 43 Grade OPC, known for its strength and durability in extreme conditions. The project was executed by Indian Railways. Dive deeper

NSE has received SEBI’s nod to launch monthly electricity futures, aiming to deepen the power market, offer effective hedging tools, and attract climate-focused capital. Dive deeper

The Finance Ministry clarified that UPI transactions will remain free, with no plans to impose merchant discount rates. This reaffirms the government’s commitment to low-cost digital payments, despite ongoing discussions around MDR on high-value UPI transactions to support ecosystem viability. Dive deeper

The government is drafting a new framework to ease the transfer of immovable assets from telecom PSUs like MTNL, BSNL, and ITI to other ministries, aiming to support restructuring and asset monetisation. MTNL’s total liabilities stand at ₹33,568 crore. Dive deeper

Reliance Industries, through Siddhant Commercials, sold 3.5 crore Asian Paints shares for ₹7,703.5 crore at ₹2,201 each, retaining 87 lakh shares. Dive deeper

The government has asked edible oil companies to immediately pass on the benefits of reduced import duties to consumers, following a cut in customs duty on crude oils from 20% to 10%. This move aims to ease food inflation, boost domestic refining, and lower retail prices through a 19.25% crude-refined duty gap. Dive deeper

Wipro promoter entities executed an internal stake swap involving 18.05 crore shares (1.72%) worth ₹4,674.77 crore. Azim Premji Trust sold the shares to Prazim Traders and Zash Trader at ₹258.99 per share. Dive deeper

Jubilant Bhartia Group promoters are selling minority stakes in listed firms to raise ₹2,000 crore for partially funding their 40% acquisition in Hindustan Coca-Cola Beverages, valued at ₹31,250 crore. This is in addition to $600 million raised by Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Dive deeper

NTPC has secured a $750 million loan for capex funding, with $500 million from Bank of Baroda and $250 million from HDFC Bank. The 10-year term loan was executed via their IFSC units in GIFT City under the external commercial borrowing route. Dive deeper

Paytm shares declined sharply after the Finance Ministry dismissed reports of MDR on UPI payments as false and misleading. Dive deeper

Shakti Pumps received a ₹114.58 crore work order from the Maharashtra Energy Department Agency for supplying and installing 4,500 off-grid solar water pumping systems under the PM-KUSUM scheme. The project is to be completed within 90 days across various locations in Maharashtra. Dive deeper

Bangalore International Airport is in advanced talks to raise ₹9,000 crore via unlisted bonds to refinance debt and fund expansion. The proposed 15-year bonds may carry a coupon of 8.15%, though it could be revised lower as discussions with lenders continue. Dive deeper


What’s happening globally

Brent crude fell to around $69.1 per barrel after touching a two-month high, as geopolitical tensions eased slightly. The drop followed strong US inventory drawdowns and hopes of improved US-China trade ties, while Fed rate cut expectations supported the demand outlook. Dive deeper

Gold rose toward $3,390 per ounce, its highest since early May, as softer US economic data and rising geopolitical tensions boosted safe-haven demand. Weaker inflation and labor market signals reinforced expectations of Fed rate cuts, while fresh tariff threats and Middle East risks added to the rally. Dive deeper

The dollar index fell below 97.8, hitting its lowest since 2022, pressured by renewed trade tensions, geopolitical risks, and softer US inflation data. Markets now expect two Fed rate cuts this year, with the dollar weakening notably against the euro, yen, and Swiss franc. Dive deeper

US initial jobless claims held steady at 248,000 in early June, above expectations and at an eight-month high, suggesting early signs of labor market softening. Continuing claims rose to their highest since November 2021, pointing to slower re-employment. Dive deeper

US producer prices rose 0.1% in May 2025, below expectations, with core prices also up 0.1% amid mixed trends in goods and services. On an annual basis, headline PPI held at 2.6%, while core inflation eased to 3%. Dive deeper

The UK economy contracted by 0.3% in April 2025, its first decline in six months, led by a drop in services and manufacturing. The fall was driven by higher costs, new taxes, and external tariff pressures, though GDP still rose 0.7% over the three-month period. Dive deeper

Boeing shares fell after an Air India Dreamliner crash near Ahmedabad, with domestic airline stocks also declining amid weak market sentiment. Dive deeper

Norway’s sovereign wealth fund has placed TD Bank under a four-year watchlist over concerns of serious financial crime, citing past violations and uncertainty around its compliance reforms. The fund holds a 1.05% stake in TD. Dive deeper

Brazil’s retail sales fell 0.4% in April 2025, the sharpest drop since June 2024, driven by declines in fuel, tech, and supermarket categories. However, annual growth rebounded to 4.8%, beating expectations and reversing March’s decline. Dive deeper

Toyota shareholders re-elected Akio Toyoda as chairman amid scrutiny over the ¥4.7 trillion buyout bid for Toyota Industries. Proxy advisers supported his reappointment, while some investors raised concerns about the deal’s fairness. Dive deeper

Chinese EV stocks fell after the government urged manufacturers to honor their 60-day supplier payment commitments. The reminder follows concerns over cash flow in the sector, intensified by BYD’s recent price cuts amid an ongoing EV price war. Dive deeper


Management chatter

In this section, we pick out interesting comments made by the management of major companies and policymakers of the Indian and Global Economy.


Warren Harris, CEO & MD, Tata Technologies, on rare earth concerns and sectoral outlook

“We have been exposed to concerns that have been raised by some of our customers and some of their suppliers, particularly the battery manufacturers. But we are really not seeing it play out yet in terms of caution as it pertains to decision-making.”

“There are concerns that this issue could build into something that is meaningful. But as of right now, most of our clients are positioning a wait and watch in terms of what happens, particularly in the context of the trade negotiations.”

“Having said that, we continue to see very strong demand in aerospace and, to some extent, industrial heavy machinery. I am going to the Paris Air Show next week and we expect to announce a couple of very big deals at the show.” - Link

Mandeep Kohli, Managing Director & Partner, BCG India, on India’s AI market trajectory

“AI is no longer an option but a business necessity. Indian companies are using it to leapfrog traditional growth curves and compete confidently on the global stage.”

“While the hurdle rate for successful deployment is high, the rewards are even higher, and the results speak for themselves.”

“What separates the leaders is not just the tech, but how they manage change, build talent, and embed AI into the fabric of their organisation.” - Link


:technologist:t2:Have you checked out The Chatter?

Every week, we listen to the big Indian earnings calls—Reliance, HDFC Bank, and even smaller logistics firms—and copy the full transcripts. We then remove the fluff and keep only the sentences that could move a share price: a surprise price hike, a cut-back on factory spending, a warning about weak monsoon sales, or a hint from management on RBI liquidity. We add a quick, one-line explainer and a timestamp so you can trace the quote back to the call. The whole thing lands in your inbox as one sharp page of facts you can read in three minutes—no 40-page decks, no jargon, just the hard stuff that matters for your trades and your macro view.

Go check out The Chatter here.


Calendars

In the coming days, we have the following significant events and corporate actions:






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2 Likes

Appreciate the insights on the report.

With 4k cr sell off by FII today (source: https://www.nseindia.com/reports/fii-dii), the fall in markets today is not surprising.

The tariff 90 days deadline is less than a month away now, and US is not even close to any deals with any countries.

Plus today was options expiry day so the markets were even more aggressive than usual.

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