Money needed to move index

dtyxg · January 26, 2024, 6:16pm

I just wanted to know how much money is needed to move the index.

So I just analysed the volume of all the 12 stocks in BANKNIFTY .

Some assumptions I made while calculating

In the timeframe all the volume is used for moving the index
All orders are MIS
Required money is calculated based by using margin calculator today (26-01-2024)

24-01-2024	TIME (1 Min )	POINTS	%	VOLUME IN M
BANKNIFTY	11:36	149.05	0.33	1.221

STOCK	WEIGHTAGE	POINTS	%	VOLUME IN K	₹ req MIS
HDFCBANK	37.89	5.75	0.4	113.783	3,26,53,445
ICICI	24.52	3.45	0.34	80.506	1,62,61,406
AXIS	11.13	3	0.28	27.746	57,83,653
KOTAK	8.79	6.05	0.34	15.005	53,06,968
SBI	8.07	1.2	0.19	113.249	1,38,78,664
INDUS	3.16	4.2	0.29	27.428	82,94,227
BANKBARODA	1.5	0.7	0.31	130.085	59,07,159
FEDRAL	1.1	0.6	0.43	51.598	14,63,319
PNB	1.09	0.35	0.35	291.528	60,92,935
IDFC	1.05	0.35	0.43	199.007	41,59,246
AU	1.05	2.35	0.32	3.445	4,87,708
BANDHAN	0.66	-0.1	-0.04	166.149	73,42,124
					10,76,30,854

18-01-2024	TIME (1 Min )	POINTS	%	VOLUME IN M
BANKNIFTY	10:09	137.9	0.3	1.69

STOCK	WEIGHTAGE	POINTS	%	VOLUME IN K	₹ req MIS
HDFCBANK	37.89	3.05	0.2	338.544	9,71,55,357
ICICI	24.52	1.75	0.18	45.016	90,92,781
AXIS	11.13	2.85	0.26	59.354	1,23,72,341
KOTAK	8.79	5.55	0.31	26.182	92,60,049
SBI	8.07	2.7	0.43	167.625	2,05,42,443
INDUS	3.16	6.55	0.4	18.163	54,92,491
BANKBARODA	1.5	1.25	0.56	187.26	85,03,476
FEDRAL	1.1	0.7	0.49	104.049	29,50,829
PNB	1.09	0.3	0.31	395.716	82,70,464
IDFC	1.05	0.45	0.53	268.37	42,96,603
AU	1.05	2.45	0.33	9.853	13,94,889
BANDHAN	0.66	0.45	0.2	69.4	30,66,786
					18,23,98,509

25-10-2023	TIME (1 Min )	POINTS	%	VOLUME IN M
BANKNIFTY	13:52	71.7	0.17

STOCK	WEIGHTAGE	POINTS	%	VOLUME IN K	₹ req MIS
HDFCBANK	37.89	2.05	0.14	25.743	73,87,726
ICICI	24.52	1	0.11	20.207	40,81,611
AXIS	11.13	2.4	0.25	20.829	43,41,805
KOTAK	8.79	1.75	0.1	8.521	30,13,707
SBI	8.07	1.15	0.21	37.039	45,39,129
INDUS	3.16	2.35	0.16	34.072	1,03,03,372
BANKBARODA	1.5	0.65	0.33	43.732	19,85,870
FEDRAL	1.1	0.3	0.21	32.769	9,29,328
PNB	1.09	0.3	0.43	123.475	25,80,627
IDFC	1.05	0.15	0.17	63.06	10,09,590
AU	1.05	2.15	0.31	10.685	15,12,675
BANDHAN	0.66	0.75	0.34	81.938	36,20,840
					4,53,06,280

So around 5Cr to 15 Cr are needed to open a office in Kailash Plaza right?

I know I missed some data points.

Any suggestions / inputs are welcomed

@viswaram @nithin @Jason_Castelino @Chetan_Nahata @ShubhS9 @HowUTrade @t7support
@Prakashsingh

Jason_Castelino · January 27, 2024, 6:12am

Nah. You will have to consider volume on futures and options too. Theoretically stocks move the index but practically it’s the other way round. I have seen options moving first and then futures and then index playing catching up. Too much calculation.
I don’t think 5 to 10cr can move index so much. We may need 100s of crores if not more.

Yogarajan_V · January 27, 2024, 7:43am

Thats the turn over of HDFC on friday thats 7000 + Crores, you need atleast 30% of transaction volume to move any partcular stock, atleast in Nifty 50. That roughly comes around 1100 crores. Further If you do only MIS atleast 220 crores needed to move HDFC alone. Imagine how much one need to move the entire bank Nifty. Index are being moved that’s true, but not by small players.

Your calculations are wrong.

dtyxg · January 27, 2024, 8:30am

That is for the whole day.

I have just provided the data for 1 minute

Yogarajan_V · January 28, 2024, 5:32am

oh okay, but still its possible on paper and impossible in real time, you practically need more. Still the opponent who is big enough will easily tackle when its going against their position.

INSPUJESWARI · January 28, 2024, 6:07am

ya options ce or pe in the side of market creates momentum first then index moves …I was studying traps and saw that If there market moved first and at that direction options prices are not moving are not breaking the the highs created on option chart that index suddenly returns on the same zone and that works like a trap…

viswaram · January 28, 2024, 7:49am

Volumes alone do not move the stock - there has to be an asymmetry in buyers/sellers that causes the prices to fall/rise a.k.a supply/demand mismatch. To prove that point, look at HDFCBK volumes in the afternoon session last week. There are many 1 million+ 5mts candles, but none have a long body. Most of them ended as doji with a short body and short wick. I think it could even be a block trade at an agreed price b/w 2 big boys.

Most often the rallies or breakdowns we see are near the max OI levels where people run for cover. At that specific instant, a small push is all that is required at HDFCBK or RELIANCE or INFY to move the Index a great deal. This could be engineered even at a lower volume & lower liquidity. But these are not anomalies or manipulations - it is all in the game.