Happy Diwali to all my friends and fellow traders here at TQnA,
Buying shares on muhurat day is considered as an auspicious thing for Investors and looking at the past 14 years data, for short selling traders at the open.
The strategy of sell at the opening and cover back by the EOD worked all these years and looking at the way SGX is shaped up today, unless, our investors are in a completely different mood, it seems like history may repeat itself.
13 Consecutive daily red candles (!!!) on muhurat day
Date | Prev day close | Open | Gap up/down | Close | % return | Diwali to Diwali return |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
28/10/2008 | 2524.2 | 2526.2 | 2 | 2684.6 | 6.35% | -55.71% |
17/10/2009 | 5142.15 | 5159.35 | 17.2 | 5141.8 | -0.01% | 104.23% |
05/11/2010 | 6281.8 | 6321.85 | 40.05 | 6312.45 | 0.49% | 22.53% |
26/10/2011 | 5191.6 | 5214.95 | 23.35 | 5201.8 | 0.20% | -17.51% |
13/11/2012 | 5683.7 | 5689.7 | 6 | 5666.95 | -0.29% | 9.10% |
03/11/2013 | 6307.2 | 6332.05 | 24.85 | 6317.35 | 0.48% | 11.29% |
23/10/2014 | 7874.5 | 7997 | 122.5 | 7995 | 1.53% | 26.29% |
11/11/2015 | 7783.85 | 7838.8 | 54.95 | 7825 | 0.53% | -1.98% |
30/10/2016 | 8638 | 8672.35 | 34.35 | 8625.7 | -0.14% | 10.63% |
19/10/2017 | 10210.85 | 10210.35 | -0.5 | 10146.55 | -0.63% | 17.73% |
07/11/2018 | 10524 | 10552 | 28 | 10530 | 0.06% | 3.35% |
27/10/2019 | 11583.9 | 11662.25 | 78.35 | 11627 | 0.37% | 10.52% |
14/11/2020 | 12719.95 | 12823.25 | 103.3 | 12780.25 | 0.47% | 9.96% |
04/11/2021 | 17829.2 | 17935.05 | 105.85 | 17916 | 0.49% | 39.86% |
Source : SouravSen Guptal’s twitter
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Other than that, We have had 4 negative and 10 positive closes from previous closing in last 14 years
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As you can see, in absolute terms nifty is up from 2526 to 17600 levels in last 14 years.
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We have only had 3 negative diwali to diwali returns in last 14 years - that’s a good win rate if you ask me.
Summary
If we are day trading today, shorting at the opening seemed to have given returns.
If we buy shares for the medium to long term today, it has yielded pretty good returns in the past
Once again, HAPPY DIWALI FOLKS