Nifty at a critical zone - What's your plan?

We had one more 75 Bps rate hike from fed and we also had one more day of sharp sell off in US markets. Our markets are doing better but how long will be outperform to this extent is anybody’s guess. As, we live in a global scenario, if other markets fall hard, we cant sustain for too long (looking at the history so far)

But, the other scenario currently is such - Global markets have already fallen too much , so there is also a possibility of sharp reversal there and our markets inching to all time highs.

So, what’s your plan in both scenarios? one - our market going to sub 16k levels , the other to all time highs

USDINR has sort of given a BO above 80

Would be interesting to see how bearish banks get on this…so far 600-700 points downmove was seen

Needs to see if 40k holds or not

IT , i think , is in support zones now

If the market is going to sub 16K level it is definitely a buy/Accumulate. Wish it does.

If it goes to all time highs - do the reverse of SIP instead of buy sell in small quantities and bring down your average cost.

Disc: My personal views

Buy for long term if index falls, trade for short term if it remains like this or goes high :grin:

I don’t think Indian markets will fall as much as its global peers. The RBI and Indian Government are in no hurry to bring inflation down in the medium term, which means no aggressive rate hikes. Increasing rate hikes by the Fed also means a cool down in commodity prices, which is also a big plus on the imported inflation front. Most of the inflation pressure in the US and Europe is due to energy prices. So, everything else remaining same, we can expect the RBI to maintain a balance between growth and inflation and the India markets to do well.

That being said, sectors like IT and pharma, which have a greater exposure to US and Europe markets, can be expected to underperform.


hedge your position

Sell cash secured 16000puts dec expiry at 168.
If it comes there I will convert it to bees.

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With Nifty at ~17k, does this give you 1% returns over 3 months ? Plus interest on funds that are not locked by margin.

Don’t you do derivatives, don’t you know this? :thinking:

Just (re) started with futures, don’t touch options as i have not made the effort to study them so far. Much rather focus on what i know first. NF options are very liquid though …

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Banks getting hammered…39700 now

IT outperforming

USDINR blasting.

It gives annualised return of 30 percent on funds employed. Now what about balance funds you ask. 80 percent of those balance funds are then taken to money market funds. And these funds generate 5 per annualised basis. Then pledge these to get 90 percent of those funds back in the trading account.
After that sell ultra deep OTMs. Like for today’s nifty value 16000pe sep month end expiry is at 3 points. And 18600ce sep month ended expiry is also around 3. So u can accumulate 6 points. By doing this you can make around 5 percent on annualised basis. If I consider all of it together it will easily come to 18 to 20 percent Annualised return.

If nifty actually comes there, then stop everything and take delivery of bees.

The only catch here is - trading with cash that secures my put!
Lo and behold, the put is no longer secured.

Agree. If we see a 5 percent gap down straight away.

Every week Nifty is at a critical zone.

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Markets have their own reasons for the upside and downside. It is in the hands of few market players and FII. When the pandemic was ruling high stock markets went up. Its really funny. All reasons given in the media like Ukraine war, cease fire inUkraine, dollar value goes up are alibis to the markets moving up and down. I starting trading when Nifty was around 3000 and started my trading in 2003 with Canara Bank IPO at 35/rs. =. It is history now. Stock markets have their own laws of demand and supply which no one knows exactly. But by december end it could touch 18000-19000 (Nifty). Its practical analysis. My plan is not to hold stocks till market regularises with normal highs and lows with least gapups and gapdowns.