Welcome to Kya Lag Raha Hai Market, your daily look at NIFTY and BANK NIFTY predictions and market analysis with Abid Hassan from Sensibull. We analyse options trading by tracking candlestick patterns, price action, FII-DII data, support and resistance levels, open interest, option chain moves, trend formations, and risk-reward setups to help you navigate the markets better.
Disclaimer: This content is purely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice or stock tips. The aim is to help you understand derivative data, option trading strategies, and technical analysis better.
Chart Analysis
NIFTY:
- Taking resistance from the top of the downward trending channel.
- Forming an indecision Doji candle, indicating potential reversal.
BANK NIFTY:
- Also forming a Doji, currently below prior support trendline.
- Gap fill is completed but lacks strength to lead on its own.
Options Chain Data: Key Levels
- Resistance: 22,800 has good resistance.
- Support: 22,500 has big support.
PCR (Put-Call Ratio): 0.85 around ATM and 0.7 overall.
- PCR is distorted due to heavy call writing at 23,000.
Participant Options Data
| Participant | Calls | Puts | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| FII | Long 5L+ | Long 6L+ | Slight bearish leaning |
| Pro | Short 1.5L | Short 50K | Mildly bearish |
| Client | Short 3.8L | Short 6.1L | Aggressively bearish |
Summary: Clients and Pros are heavily short across both calls and puts. FII is maintaining balanced longs but with more puts than calls.
FII DII Data Summary: Sensibull
Participant Futures Data
- FII is still net short.
- Sold ₹300 crore in index futures.
FII DII Futures and Options Data: Sensibull Analyse
Participant Stock Data
FII Index Futures: Sold ₹331 Cr in index futures. OI dropped by 1.5k (Bearish).
FII Options:
-
Call OI change: 1.92L (Bullish)
-
Put OI change: 2.05L (Bearish)
FII Cash: Sold ₹4,994 Cr in cash. (Bearish)
Verdict
- Market might be nearing the end of the pullback.
- New shorts can be initiated if the 22,700+ zone confirms resistance with price rejection.
Trade Plan and Approach
- Will look to add fresh shorts for the longer term if rejection near channel top holds.
- Shorter-term bear call spreads offer a good reward-to-risk due to elevated IV.
- Avoid naked puts and opt for spreads or defined-risk strategies in the high-IV environment.
Watch the full analysis video here:
Got a different take? Would love to hear what levels you’re tracking. 