There are few assumptions I take which may or may not work all the time but it has a decent probability of winning. At least from my limited period of experience in markets. (8 years)
- India is an EM, and nifty will keep going up for at least 20 more years. This assumption is against most who keep telling me Japan has given 0 returns for 35 years. Let’s not get into details but there are multiple reasons for the same.
- The obvious thing doesn’t happen most of the time in markets. So if all are expecting markets to go up, it may not really happen. If all are expecting 20k and lower, that too wont happen that easily. When we touched 25k for the first time, I sold my entire portfolio using nifty futures and brought down my net equity exposure to 11 percent. We did go another 1200 points higher from there. Same way I took my equity exposure to 94 percent when we hit 22k last week. Now what if we had fallen more. Nothing I will just wait thinking that I am a long term investor. Some day may be after 5 years I will get my levels back.
- Most traders use TA for trading in markets. We also know that 90 percent plus incur losses. So the TA of 90 percent of them is wrong.
Yes. TA does work for a few who follow a system and do not take any discretionary decision. - Markets are not as complicated as some make it look in my opinion. We traders keep fighting with all the analysis and simple housewife who bought gold without any research, outperformed all of us for the last 1 year at least. Even index funds outperform most traders. Again some traders do outperform market benchmarks.
- At any given point of time, there is 50 percent probability for market to go in either of the direction. It’s even higher than some of the TA strategies. Now I know most will talk about RR and all.
- Your stop losses are my targets and your targets are my stop losses. I actually don’t have stop losses. I keep fighting my positions to a point I feel I can’t do it anymore.
There are few more assumptions I take but I can’t recall them to put it up here. Some work. Some don’t but so far in 8 years it has worked for me. Also it may not work in future.
About trolling. lol. 
why so serious bro? Chill. I was expecting markets to cool down around 24200 but then it’s above that as I type. I am wrong too. Troll me. Big deal.
My entire game is around net equity exposure that I play using cash secured puts and covered calls. I am now at 54 percent long and I will keep bringing it down as we go higher and higher against TA. If I get entry again great. If I don’t, I will still make risk free return of 7 percent per annum.