Nifty Correcting right before the Budget - Will History repeat itself?

I’m sure most of us are shocked looking at the brutal fall in Nifty from last 1 week. We have almost corrected 1350 points from 18350 to 16990 odd levels.

While I was checking the news and tweets , I just found out some interesting data about what happened to the index right before the budget.

2021 Pre-Budget and 2022 Pre-Budget

6 days fall (-7.83%) in 2021 and 5 days fall (-7.37%) in 2022

On both occasions RSI was/is at 37

Source : Shivaji Vitthalrao

here’s one more piece of data

Credits : Business Mind

What do you think? Will the History repeat itself and market moves up again after the Budget? or will it be different this time?


@Prakashsingh even i thought the same , but my personal thinking process is that most employees need to submit the actual tax paid details/ investment details before jan 10/15th. to utilise the 80c benifits most of them buy some mutual fund before jan 10th so if you actually see nifty from dec 25 to jan 10 , itll be positive , but after that sudden dip will be there ,

Budget is pure accidental is that what i feel . Effects of budget are seen only post the budget not pre budget .

With the topped out market, NATO - Russia standoff, inflation in economy, it would need some path breaking schemes in budget to pull up the market.

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That is a very plausible reason. However, the ATM options (Ra. 14250CE) of 25-Feb 2021 expiry were trading at a much higher IV (28% on 25-1-2021) at this time of 2021, current IV of 17250CE is only 20%. Wonder why?

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