Nifty prediction based on BJPs Tally

Inviting everyone , please share your thoughts how nifty can move on June 4th . ( please take 22500 as nifty base )

My thoughts

NDA 350 - 400+ :max 5% upside
320-350 : 3% upside
280-320 : 1% - Minus 3%
250-280 : minus % 2- minus 5%
Less than 250 - minus 5% - minus 10%

Seems like everyone either too scared to predict or dont want to share their secrets

If the last option happens (however improbable), expect lower circuits. Rest I more or less agree with.

That’s not the case, I think. Since you requested a response from “learned” members, everyone is hesitating to reply, I suppose. Who else but an idiot would consider themselves learned?

1 Like

Looks like market has already priced in NDA to be back. It might go down by few percent even if they win comfortably. If they don’t there could be a correction of more than 10%.
This is not for the results day but with in a week or two.
Results day will be be knee jurk reaction.

1 Like

Nifty behaviour on election month and afterwards (Value of nifty rounded of on the average of high and low)

Election Start date 05-Sep-1999 (1470)
Election End date 03-Oct-1999 (1450)
After Results date 06-Oct-1999 (1450)
Month after result (1260)

Election Start date 20-Apr-2004 (1900)
Election End date 10-May-2004 (1500)
After Results date 13-May-2004 (1300)
Month after result (1500)

Election Start date 16-Apr-2009 (3400)
Election End date 13-May-2009 (3600)
After Results date 16-May-2009 (4200)
Month after result (4400)

Election Start date 07-Apr-2014 (6700)
Election End date 12-May-2014 (6900)
After Results date 16-May-2014 (7300)
Month after result (7500)

Election Start date 11-Apr-2019 (11600)
Election End date 19-May-2019 (11300)
After Results date 23-May-2019 (12000)
Month after result (11600)


Irrespective of results I feel we will fall a min of 10 percent in June or July from the top. Now where is the top? Even I do not know. :sweat_smile:


may be 23600/700 then a 10% drop

1 Like

Thats one of a kind deep analysis @sanjayn . Well done :+1:

Contrary to general public views / news anchor views . After looking sanjays data It seems like when ever NDA wins Market is kind of stable amd not going anywhere but whenever Congress + alliance winning market moving significantly higher . Wow :hushed: I always thought BJP is pro towards market / investors seems there is lot more to it .

1 Like

:yum: Changed to everyone

The bearish bets by foreigners doesn’t give confidence that market is pricing in NDA victory. Probably they’re betting on hung parliament or may be they fear 2004 and want to be on safer side

I also thought on similar lines unless one of my friend showed me that sensex returned more in percentage terms during Manmohan Singh Govt’s 10 years than during Modi Govt’s tenure.

My prediction -

NDA - 350-400
Nifty - 1% - minus 3%

1 Like

Why so ?
Its a good result why minus ?

My prediction - 10% fall after elections.

Not like I expect it to happen but can say “I said so” in case it happens :smile:


I was expecting 10% fall since it crossed 19,000 .
Cant still figure how it made it to 22k its too much even by PR ratio of nifty is near 24-25 .

All around the world recession news and high inflation and entire IT sector with job cuts . Personally i felt last whole year Nifty has been manipulated like a small cap stock .

But even now i am feeling nifty is on the last step of the edge but it feels like my opinion is like 1 against 1crore . Still Shorted the market and burnt good amount of cash as well . But still again I took shorts for June, July , aug .

1 Like

Don’t know about the exact number but Modiji seems extremely bullish on markets in June

My conservative (not so conservative as per current trends) guess is 350-370 for NDA

My gut feeling is 410-415 !! for NDA :grimacing:

More than nifty (10-15%), mid and small caps may skyrocket 15-20% more …that’s my guess


Not happening brother. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:


wow thats too high predictions for NDA as well as nifty .

Any time Nifty crossed 10% on upside ?

(BTW i am scared now , I shorted Nifty with 7% upside risk taking 22500 as base )