Thats not a bad strategy.
I actually dont guess or time investments much for the most part (I dont pick individual stocks nowadays, too much to manage alongside very active index options trading), just mostly keep investing trading-profits from time to time. But obviously when equity dips, the 65-35 debt/equity split (of the liquid capital) tends to allocate more to Equity.
When it comes to short term directionals, for me its all about momentum.
I curious though. Is there a point in time or price(not on the upside) where you would become bearish? say 22k in 6th year(flat for 6th year) or 18k, 15k next year?
This is not a bad strategy but I need to apply it to the king of bulls like yourself to win big 
How can I turn bearish on the downside? My entire set up is based on law of averages and probability. A particular level on the downside wonât matter to me since I am not a fan of TA. Instead I may actually go above 100 percent on equity at such low levels. At 21k I may have 100 percent equity. And below that level may be above 100 percent. Not sure of this. Should see how emotions work then.
I have already bought March 2027 calls above my net equity longs. If I actually consider them as equity long at contract value, I am already at 130 percent equity long. So 1 percent up on nifty will actually give me close to 1.3percent up in my account value. This is a temporary set up. I will close these calls on the first bounce.
How exactly? 100% means your entire capital right? Do you mean leverage with mtf or options or something?
I read somewhere that one can start LLP as family office to manage their funds (investment and trading) and 50:50 rule doesnât applicable.
is it true ?
I can structure it using options or futures.
Even right now when I say am 85 percent long, only 40 percent is actually in cash market. Remaining is in the form of nifty futures long. Every two months I have been rolling over.
Yes. Thatâs what the circular says. But I havenât incorporated one yet.
Instead you can get a partnership firm incorporated. There is no restriction.
With leverage wonât you be forced to close your positions if nifty were to continue the same direction - irrationally against all laws of averages, before rationality takes over ?
Ah that way I am probably zig zagging wildly in terms of eq allocation 
and itâs probably more erratic as a lot of it is CTM STBT and BTST
Using options? Nah. I will lose less than 1 percent of my capital if these long call options go to 0. Thatâs why I am using options and not futures.
Thatâs all hedged right? Mine is futures longs. Direct naked.
And I wonât close it even if nifty reaches 26k in one week.
Then why in futures and not in cash market? I have to maintain 50 percent in cash collateral. Otherwise my option selling gets affected. So itâs as good as niftybees.
No Index Fut nowadays. I often start with straddle (or ctm strangle), and depending on movement, there is usually a bias on one side with the carry, sometimes small, sometimes big. Square off next day. Fresh positions every day.
Plus there is a positional OB strategy with smaller size, that was fantastic last year, and poor this year.
Thatâs what I mentioned above. Without considering option positions I am at 85 percent long. (Cash plus futures)
If I include options then I am at 130 percent already.
Sebi created a nested thread on X with all MFs, depositories and exchanges. Something up tomorrow!
Probably nothing but investor awareness though
250 out of 500 stocks where he said earnings are good are smallcaps. And later he too said same - broader market better vs nifty. He is actually saying to rebalance from larger cap to multicaps/nifty500. Watched for 10mins only.
Below is return for one of them 1Y 3Y 5Y. Others are similar. Not bad at all. Midcaps will be similar but worse probably.
| Bandhan Small Cap Fund | 34,176.02 | 0.35 | 10.49% | 23.22% | 19.30% |
|---|
This is ulta market where larger the caps higher is the underperformance.
So for now there is no free lunch - broader market has good earnings and so is priced higher. Larger caps are not doing as well and so priced lower. I am not a funda guy, so dunno but as per Naren too who is very experienced and respected - largecaps earnings are muted.
Anyway this too shall pass but my noobie assessment for now is that Large caps are not cheap enough to be a screaming buy. Baki sabh sahi hai.
yeah, this is more trading than investing - you are good trader man, not just investor. Maybe i have said it before, but you say markets are random, in random markets one cannot trade with an edge. So you have your own edge at less random points in the market, generally CT stretched areas i guess.
nice conversation, every body belive bearish and bullish - just what i observed BY FII and Fund manger
When FII exit japan , they flat or down by 25Years , China flat almost
AI View Of China MArket
Shanghai Composite (Mainland Benchmark): ~15â17 Years Flat
The view of Japan Market By AI
The Japanese stock market spent approximately 34 years flat to depressed following the collapse of its asset bubble.
While theoretically any equity market can experience long-term stagnation, it is unlikely for India to repeat Japanâs multi-decade âLost Decadesâ scenario due to fundamental differences in market valuations, demographics, and economic structure.
Fund manager from whiteoak capital says - FII have more power then DIIs if FII to sell means around 50% from here everyday 5k crore . its take 10 years - we can be flat or down for next 10 years also - there is no guarantee - nifty can bounce from here - to 26k then it can fall to 22k â anything can happen
in 25 years this year Nifty make history of 8th consistituve week negative , now we are seeing something new in nifty , who knows any thing new can happen , - there is nobody a genious in stock market - everybody telling a past bounce back its will happen next year , there is no need like that , i am not a believer - only certain limit we
can believe -
FIIs as leaving very fast means something is cooking there ,
I have mentioned multiple times here. I do not know what am I. May be a Trad-vestor. 
Anyways. For ethical reasons at least let me call myself investor 
I just rely on law of averages. And may be human emotions. After rally there is profit booking and after dips there is short covering. May be if I use it only in cash market it may not work. But since I do it using option selling, theta is enough to give me that edge.
While I agree inflation inflates nominal returns, I donât agree the same with interest rates. Interest rate increases are an response to inflation and is done to combat inflation. Climbing interest rates are a clear damper on equity returns:
Stable inflation are positive on the market. I also agree clear runway inflation or currency depreciation may inflate market during desperation. But slowly climbing interest rates are a negative. I think you know discounting cash flow with risk free rate and the math is clear on it: if yield increases, it discounts future value of earnings. In addition higher interest rate is a damper on corporate credit and therefore growth, especially companies with debt - which affect real returns and offset any inflation gains to reduce nominal return.
Finding good, debt-free companies with strong profitability and other solid fundamentals and adding them to a watchlist during a market crash may provide good long-term growth opportunities.
Just my personal view, not an investment suggestion.
Corporate debt could become an issue during an economic slowdown, especially if bond yields rise. Higher borrowing costs can put additional pressure on highly leveraged companies.
Oil and electricity prices could also rise if FII outflows put pressure on the Indian rupee. A weaker rupee can increase the cost of imported commodities such as crude oil, which could further affect corporate profitability and the broader economy.