Hi all. long time no see. hope u r all doing well after november correction
for traders who love crazy volatility, events like RBI policy are the best days to make big money or lose big money depending on how we trade.
for this week.i went long on bnifty and holding my longs . Im a price action trader and I took this trade based on taking entry near the demand zones of 35800-600
Its incredible to see a dovish stance from RBI even after extremely hawkish stance from all the major economies like US, EU etc. It kind of shows how much ammunition we have to withstand adverse macro environment. India ,for sure is getting stronger.
Ofcourse, market has cheered this policy and gave a thumbs up.
Looks like market has kind of factored in a rate hike…but how much? that is the million dollar question.
40-50 bps is not ruled out , with nifty hovering around key level of 16400, It needs to be seen whether it drifts towards 16600-650 or 16100-050 after the event.
RBI for sure is hawkish as of now considering the inflation levels…how will they plan to strike a fine balance btwn focusing on growth and taming inflation is most likely what mrkt is looking frwd to,
Banknifty was purely manipulated today with the help of ICICI bank. I didn’t see any any reason of cheering up the event passed by. RBI governor did what was actually needed, he seemed to be quite aggressive today going against most pundits who were thinking of .25 percent hike. But the RBI governor thought ahead of all looking at the upcoming risks in food prices to go up due to uneven monsoon in various parts of India. Moreover there is always a risk in geopolitical tensions so he has done his job in advance.
Coming to the banking stocks, I think today’s hike may impact in coming days slowly slowly in credit growth and bond market. So, after this event I think banknifty should correct 2-3%. Let’s see.
U know it’s not that easy to manipulate an index right. Market doesn’t necessarily have to move the way we expect. Forget bank nifty even ICICI bank can’t be manipulated so easily.
As inflation is largely cooling down near RBIs range of 4-6%, we may have the last of rate hikes and the current rate hike end at 6.5%.
What’s more important though is what RBI thinks about growth going forward and what the governor himself says on adani issue. Market off late has focused too much on it.
RBI governor has been the unsung hero in the last few years and this time too the market expectation is definitely for him to deliver the goods.
