Hi all. long time no see. hope u r all doing well after november correction
for traders who love crazy volatility, events like RBI policy are the best days to make big money or lose big money depending on how we trade.
for this week.i went long on bnifty and holding my longs . Im a price action trader and I took this trade based on taking entry near the demand zones of 35800-600
my trgt is 38k of dec. lets see what happens.
what was ur strategy generally and what was ur statrgy this weeek?
also anybody has stats about how nifty n bnifty performed on RBI event days from last 5 years? it would be great if somebody can share this info.
Its incredible to see a dovish stance from RBI even after extremely hawkish stance from all the major economies like US, EU etc. It kind of shows how much ammunition we have to withstand adverse macro environment. India ,for sure is getting stronger.
Ofcourse, market has cheered this policy and gave a thumbs up.
Here’s some reading for you all folks before the main event at 10 AM :
Initial Take-away :
Extremely dovish policy much more than what the markets expected. Market zoomed up (esp financials) on estimation of lower inflation going forward.
Will update the thread here on all the announcements
Question of the day : Will the RBI finally turn hawkish ?
If not - bloodbath in INR very likely
On expected lines. Hence, some stability is visible in the mrkt
Whoever said RBI moves INR ? Interbank (big banks mafia ) moves them as always. They just need some news event to crush retail traders.
Timing and quantum of the rise completely unexpected although rate hike was expected in the coming MPC meeting.
This coming during LIC IPO is crazy stuff indeed!!
overall - a great move to tame inflation
Looks like market has kind of factored in a rate hike…but how much? that is the million dollar question.
40-50 bps is not ruled out , with nifty hovering around key level of 16400, It needs to be seen whether it drifts towards 16600-650 or 16100-050 after the event.
RBI for sure is hawkish as of now considering the inflation levels…how will they plan to strike a fine balance btwn focusing on growth and taming inflation is most likely what mrkt is looking frwd to,
Other measures also needs to be kept on radar…
Do you know where I can stay up with the latest news? When (time) do you think the decision will be made?
Bi-monthly monetary policy decision is announced generally announced at 10 AM …
sources like twitter and business channels like CNBC , ET now and even pulse.zerodha.com is a nice place to get latest news and updates
50 bps hike on expected lines.
Here’s @deepak.shenoy 's live tweet thread during MPC (his live threads during events are super cool)
With USDINR spiking up 1 rupee from 78.5 to 79.5 before the event owing to record high trade deficit and an expected dovish policy from RBI.
It needs to be seen if RBI sticks to its usual 25-40 bps hike or goes for more. Tomorrow will be an interesting day.
RBI hikes 50 bps (Upper band of expectation)
Market not too excited on both sides currently. Just trading in range.
Banknifty was purely manipulated today with the help of ICICI bank. I didn’t see any any reason of cheering up the event passed by. RBI governor did what was actually needed, he seemed to be quite aggressive today going against most pundits who were thinking of .25 percent hike. But the RBI governor thought ahead of all looking at the upcoming risks in food prices to go up due to uneven monsoon in various parts of India. Moreover there is always a risk in geopolitical tensions so he has done his job in advance.
Coming to the banking stocks, I think today’s hike may impact in coming days slowly slowly in credit growth and bond market. So, after this event I think banknifty should correct 2-3%. Let’s see.
U know it’s not that easy to manipulate an index right. Market doesn’t necessarily have to move the way we expect. Forget bank nifty even ICICI bank can’t be manipulated so easily.
Rate hike or not is secondary i think.
How RBI is approaching rupee depreciation and inflation trajectory seems to be the key thing to focus on .
But u never know if governor will surprise by focusing on growth primarily
A month later…
Rupee is now having a free call but inflation of commodities rally seems to be cooling down with oil near 80$ per barrel
Consensus market expectation is 35 bps hike.
Let’s see what governor and MPC comment on the growth trajectory going forward
Today is the RBI monetary policy event.
As inflation is largely cooling down near RBIs range of 4-6%, we may have the last of rate hikes and the current rate hike end at 6.5%.
What’s more important though is what RBI thinks about growth going forward and what the governor himself says on adani issue. Market off late has focused too much on it.
RBI governor has been the unsung hero in the last few years and this time too the market expectation is definitely for him to deliver the goods.
Important day for banking n financial stocks.
What are you folks looking forward to the most in tomorrow’s MPC meeting?