Stock future premium

General
1

In recent months hdfc bank near month (April) future trading at higher price than the far month(May) future. Usually it had been always opposite. Last month at closing ( expiry) the difference became as high as 20 points. So every month the shorters will earn negative premium instead of positive premium from futures if he has to roll over.

Can someone please explain the reason for it?

My guess is that this is some kind of manipulation by FII who holds as large as 74% of the banks shares in order to position shorters at disadvantage.

2

The difference in premium is dependent on supply/demand and corporate action. There is no scope for manipulation, especially in large liquid scrips like HDFC.

3

I should have rather used the term arbitredge instead of manipulation. It could well be an arbitredge game played by instituional traders.

4

During expiry week it is same for many stocks near month future higher than next month future.

You can check with other stocks also.

Cost of carry also goes up by two times. This is rollover effect.