This article provides practical guidance for cultivating a positive trading mindset through a balanced and adaptive long-term approach and discusses three important qualities of consistently successful traders: following repeatable trading processes to make planned rather than reactive trades; continually innovating to find new ways to exploit ever-changing market opportunities; and achieving a balance between work and personal life to sustain long-term energy. It advocates developing routines based on one’s strengths while pushing boundaries to find fresh opportunities. Importantly, it notes that the goal is not just finding a single “edge” but evolving to take advantage of shifting edges in dynamic markets. Further, burnout is a risk if one’s work completely overwhelms other aspects of life, so engaging in activities that support overall well-being and relationships is important.
Indian police have made eight new arrests in connection with an ongoing $300 million cryptocurrency scam in Himachal Pradesh. The scam duped around 100,000 people since 2018 by promoting fraudulent cryptocurrencies like Korvio Coin. Four police officers were among those arrested as over 1,000 police personnel were reportedly victims. Investigations found some individuals earned over $240,000 from the scam. Assets linked to the alleged kingpin Subhash Sharma have been seized but he remains at large. The Enforcement Directorate is investigating five women suspected of acting as agents or promoters. This crypto scam gained significant traction by exploiting police connections, underscoring the need for strengthened oversight.
OpenAI announced new features for its GPT API at a developer event, including the ability to build custom chatbots called GPTs through a simple interface. The company envisions GPTs serving as virtual assistants connected to various online services. The author worked with OpenAI to build a GPT called “Copy Editor” to help proofread articles, and discussed how AI may one day be able to simulate reader responses. However, more advanced agents that take autonomous actions raise safety and oversight challenges. OpenAI’s CEO said the company wants to keep things simple for now by restricting agents to direct actions instead of complex planning. The event highlighted OpenAI’s goal of empowering individuals with AI abilities at vast scale, if developed responsibly.
Warren Buffett declined a $10,000 hole-in-one golf bet where he would lose $10 if he missed, citing the importance of discipline. The odds of a hole-in-one are around 12,500 to 1, making the expected value of this bet negative. Buffett understood probability and risk, avoiding bets where the expected value is a loss. While the potential payout seems enticing, emotions can cloud our ability to properly weigh odds, leading us to chase losing propositions. Losing small amounts frequently through bad bets can add up over time. Buffett demonstrates the value of disciplining oneself in both small decisions and large ones by avoiding even seemingly low-risk bets with negative expected values. This story illustrates why Buffett is so successful - he makes rational decisions by understanding probabilities rather than following emotions.
An economist in 1962 showed that the idea of holding safer assets for near-term goals and riskier assets for long-term goals is a mathematical fallacy, though this finding is often ignored in practice. Looking at returns since 1926, stocks performed similarly to balanced portfolios over 1 and 5-year periods, with double-digit losses occurring in about 1 in 6 trials. However, over 10 and 20-year periods, a 100% stock portfolio significantly outperformed bonds or balanced portfolios, with losses becoming highly unlikely over 20 years. While bonds limited short-term volatility, they incurred more frequent double-digit losses over 5 and 10 years due to clustering of bond market problems. Over the long-term 20-year horizon, equities emerged as the prudent choice, routinely realizing gains regardless of the stock allocation.