Trade set up 04 Sep 2018

 

1. SET UP to TRADE BANK NIFTY

  • Trend: (/⇓ - downtrend)
  • " Bank Nifty is in the Mid phase of bearish Trend. So, Supply is Still in control of market today. Seller will have their Mild dominance over demand. "
  • Market set up : (⇑- Supportive to trend )
  • Today Bank Nifty Force set up is "Supportive" for Selling. So, Today is "Good set up" to Sell. You should look for Selling opportunity.
  • F&O trader position: (⇑ - Basis rise )
  • The difference between bank nifty's future and spot (Basis) is now 195 points. The basis has risen from last day about 40 points.
  • Bottom Line :
  • The Trend is down.>>GOOD set up to SELL>> Basis rise.

2. sentiments

  • Global markets:
  • Asian market is flat + Dow future is also flat
  • what is news on TV
  • Bond and rupee maket provide the next direction!!
  • Positive newsflow:
  • Today is no fresh Bad news- is considered as good news!
  • Negative newsflow:
  • Crude Oil is boiling for india,so it could have nagative impact on rupee!!
  • Bottom Line:
  • Sentiments is mild negative. Sentiments are also supportive to on going trend.

3. Game theory ( tug of war between buyer & seller)

  • From where New Buying comes?
  • A. Since sentiments are mild negative, the Outside trader may not buy today.
  • From where new selling come:
  • A. Outside trader-Mild new short selling expected from outside traders. B. Trader's with Long Position- less chance for Long unwind today.
  • Will buyers buys on dips?:
  • Will Seller sell on rise?
  • On rise-Since trend is Down, There will be a higher number of sellers at higher end which propels the market to go down on the intraday rise. Moreover, on Rise, a buyer who wanted to buy has already bought. So Selling on the rise is a dominant strategy as more seller & lack of buyer on rising of downtrend market

4. what I am going to do today (In bank nifty)

  • Set up:
  • Today Bank Nifty Force set up is "Supportive" for Selling. So, Today is "Good set up" to Sell. You should look for Selling opportunity.
  • Sentiments:
  • sentiments is mild negative
  • EDGE:
  • My today trading edge points clubbing setup & sentiments is -60 .Since my edge is less than -50m I will be only looking for shorting opportunity for today. But My EDGE is not significanly high. So incase, If i sell, I will book small profit.
  • ENTRY on edge:
  • Will Look for rupee and bond marker movment -If it is nagative even today, Then I will short. Otherwise,I may also go long on dips.
  • EXIT:
  • since I have sibjective trade today on both side trade, it is not possible to define exit.
 

Abhikumar Patel
Twitter

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