1. SET UP to TRADE BANK NIFTY
- Trend: (⇓ - downtrend) " Bank Nifty is in the Mid phase of bearish Trend. So, Supply is Still in control of market today. Seller will have their Mild dominance over demand. "
- Market set up : (- neutral to trend) Today Bank Nifty Force set up is "OK" for Selling. So, Today is "Just OK" to Sell. You should look for Selling opportunity. But it may not have great momentum.
- F&O trader position: (⇓- Basis is down ) The difference between bank nifty's future and spot (Basis) is now 184 points. The basis has fallen from last day about -10 points.
- Bottom Line : The Trend is down.>>ok set up to SELL>>Basis fall.
- Global markets: Asian market is down + DOW future is flat!
- what is news on TV Global market is not cheerful as of now!
- Positive newsflow: exporter are willing to sell dollar & May be today exhaustion in selling in rupee and bank nifty! & Crude is down!
- Negative newsflow: other markets are in nagative is only nagative for day!
- Bottom Line: Sentments is mild positive. Sentiments are not supportive to on going trend.
3. Game theory ( tug of war between buyer & seller)
- From where New Buying comes? A.Since sentiments are Mild Positive, the Outside trader will come and buy.
- From where new selling come: A. Outside trader may not short sell today. B. Trader's with Long Position- less chance for Long unwind today.
- Will buyers buys on dips?: Today, Only short covering can be heavy, if it comes!
- Will Seller sell on rise? On rise-Since trend is Down, There will be a higher number of sellers at higher end which propels the market to go down on the intraday rise. Moreover, on Rise, a buyer who wanted to buy has already bought. So Selling on the rise is a dominant strategy as more seller & lack of buyer on rising of downtrend market
4. what I am going to do today (In bank nifty)
- Set up: Today Bank Nifty Force set up is "Supportive" for Selling. So, Today is "Good set up" to Sell. You should look for Selling opportunity.
- Sentiments: sentments is mild positive
- EDGE: My today trading edge points clubbing setup & sentiments is 0 .Today, I don't have any edge ( NO EDGE), so I will NOT TRADE AT ALL..
- ENTRY on edge: Since I dont have any edge on short side, I will not short sell. But if rupee recovers, I will also buy for small gain
- EXIT: I will book 50-60 point profit , if rupee recover and I get profit!