Trade wars often turn into real wars

[nithin_kumrr]

The US just increased tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%. This is not a regular trade spat anymore. It feels like a major escalation in an already tense situation.

In the past, economic pressure and sanctions have sometimes come before real conflict. Russia and Ukraine is one example.

Now it makes me wonder. What if China decides to block goods and ships from going in or out of Taiwan?

On the other side, tariffs on other countries stay at 10% for now, with a 90 day pause offering some room for talks.

With all the headlines flashing, it is hard not to think about the worst case scenarios.

What do yu think?

[SG_13]

@SG_13

not be surprised to wake up Monday with an announcement from the President that he was postponing the implementation of the tariffs to give him time to make deals.

@SG_13

A bluff and next comes “deal” making.

@SG_13

he will just declare victory in the next couple of weeks and then change all the policies that he has introduced, saying that, oh, my policies have been achieved, everyone has come to the negotiating table, everyone is scared of America, and he will declare victory because he will never admit loss. He will declare victory and we will move back to the regime we were.

These tariffs were always a bluff. (Typical brinkmanship)

Tariffs work, only when they are targeted at a few countries, not all.

Seems, China was the only real target or ended up being one.

I never thought I would say this, but I’m with China on this and i hope they stay strong and fight this.

Irrespective of everything that is wrong with China, if I have to choose between China and the USA now, i would choose China (lesser of two evils).

I’m rooting for the underdog.

P.S:

Will our markets go crazy too, tmrw ?

When was the last time Nifty jumped by >5% in a single day ?

[nithin_kumrr]

@SG_13

Will our markets go crazy too, tmrw ?

You mean Friday.

I hope it keeps the Gift Nifty’s current 792 point gains.

[Aditya_Gupta]

for that, we need official notification from white house. What if it doesn’t come. 2-3 days ago also GIFT Nifty soared 500 points but in few mins went flat.

[SG_13]

@nithin_kumrr

You mean Friday.

My bad, didn’t know today was a Holiday.

Damn, worst timing for a holiday, was expecting at least a 5% gain in the Nifty, given it fell close to 5% initially, when the tariffs were announced.

The US indices are up by ~10%

Since today is a holiday, the chances for a 5% increase can either get amplified or diluted, based on anything that could happen between now and EOD.

[SG_13]

Earlier i believe it was speculation based on rumours of withdrawal/pause of Tariffs.

Now Trump himself has communicated it through his social media post.

I know it not official without coming through proper channels like the white house.

But he pretty much puts everything first on his social media, before declaring it through official channels.

So don’t think anything changes

[Aditya_Gupta]

gift nifty now around 950+. wish there was trading session tomorrow

[neha1101]

@SG_13

Will our markets go crazy too, tmrw ?

Did anyone buy when the market fell.

[TradeB2B]

yes deployed in MF 5 Lakhs

Nifty Alpha 50 fund will fly tomorrow expect double the nifty

[SG_13]

I mean, the mutual funds/DIIs did.

They bought around ~₹12,100 crores

@nithin_kumrr

And i assume anyone sitting on cash, would have deployed some of it.

[TradeB2B]

Hai any body know this is bull market are bear market
every week -1000+ point up - and another week 1000- point down - totally confused

if i open you tube - some body telling nifty will go to 19k
another person is telling 22k support
vijay kedia is telling 26k will not reach for next 2 years

[arjun94]

@TradeB2B

if i open you tube - some body telling nifty will go to 19k

abid

[nithin_kumrr]

@SG_13

Since today is a holiday, the chances for a 5% increase can either get amplified or diluted, based on anything that could happen between now and EOD.

US markets are less than 1% now. A few points from limit downs.

@SG_13

[Norton_Fernandes]

Whats happening !!!

[Jason_Castelino]

@neha1101

Did anyone buy when the market fell.

I did. Added net longs by 20%

[SG_13]

Yeah, we missed the chance to see a 5% spike.

Pretty much all the gains of yesterday are wiped today.

At max Nifty might gain 2%. Let’s see.

He is just crazy

[Tanya_shukla]

@Jason_Castelino

I did. Added net longs by 20%

You must be facing so much of anxiety right now.

[Jason_Castelino]

@Tanya_shukla

You must be facing so much of anxiety right now

Not at all. That’s how I have always invested. I am still at 90 percent in equity. Another 10 percent cash is available to add more at 19500.

[BB789]

Is that a good thing? It seems like these DII are in cahoots with the FIIs.

FII: “You pump for me to dump”.
DII: “Sure. Just give the agreed cut to the Cayman accounts”

[SG_13]

@BB789

Is that a good thing? It seems like these DII are in cahoots with the FIIs

I mean, do they have a choice, other than to invest. How long can they keep holding on to cash/Treps.

They probably have algos/systems in place to buy certain stocks at certain level, so most of it could be automated.

If I’m not wrong, the average monthly net SIP inflows are around ~₹25,000 crs, so MFs don’t have much of a choice, but to deploy it, and what better time to invest, than on 7th April.

How often does nifty fall by more than 5% in a single day.

But yeah, i understand, given the Trump-o-mania, there is no guarantee that it won’t fall further. But Nifty was already down by ~10% before the tariff announcement, so DIIs weren’t wrong to invest now.

But yeah, sometimes it does feel like, they are giving easy exits to FIIs, by buying, whenever they are selling. Especially in the past 6 months.

Give this article a read, I found it interesting, as it talks about how we are making the FIIs exits very easy.

How India created a generation of brainwashed investors. And the macro...