Obviously the probability of success in chart 1 is higher than 50%. Anyone who says otherwise is either a newbie or a fool who has lost a lot of money gambling his way through the market.
When to enter a trade ,depends on your strategy and the probability of your next trade is ALWAYS 50/50 to win.
The exercise is not far removed from this context. Anyway i will leave that up to you find out the results and how it fits in this context.
Who says R:R ratio works well on stock market, you have 0.5% daily vol on nifty stocks. How much can you make in that 0.5%.
Lets be more clear on the questions , please.
I see probability at monthly level
Define success here?
Probability of what ? trend continuation or reversal on chart 1?. There is 50/50 chance that trend can continue or it can reverse.
“Who says R:R ratio works well on stock market” I think I should put a line on the sand and end this discussion with you.
Fine , no problem.
This is the second time you have avoided me.
you seem to think trading rules are set in stone or something.
In any case , you can believe whatever you want and live in your fantasy island of trading. I have no problem.
Probability of what?
There is more than a 50% chance that the trend will continue. This is not a 50:50 coin toss scenario.
I guess you’ll next say that there is a 1/10 chance that Afghanistan will win the Cricket World Cup next year since they are one of the 10 participating teams.
Ok , what makes you say that there is more than 50% chance the trend will continue? It can reverse also right?
Lets keep the discussion on gambling and not cricket , please.
Look at the chart, it is obvious that there is strong bullish sentiment in that scrip. In a couple of candles, the lows are higher than the highs in the previous candle. Also this is a steady upward movement and not a sudden spike in the price which is often followed by a sudden reversal. So there is certainly a high chance of success if you go long in that scrip at that time.
All those are your assumptions. Nothing in those assumptions adds more to the 50% probability. Institutions could just take profit and maybe even go short leading to a reversal.
I could make another 10 reasons as to why the price could go up and still the price could reverse. you see that , just like you gave your assumptions and made the trade, there will be another one who will think exactly opposite and short it.
Why do you assume everyone will think the same way looking at the charts?.
if that was the case , it would be very easy to make money all day every day.
I m going to need better reasons than that i m afraid.
Could. Maybe. Who is making assumptions here?
I guess that someone would be you.
I did not claim that. I just said that there is higher than usual success chance in that scenario. The likelihood of profit booking or going short at that point is lesser than the likelihood of going long.
Enjoying this thread dude ? carry on
Dude, when a thread has started on a particular topic, it is good manners to talk on that particular topic only. If you are not adding to the betterment of information/knowledge then it is better to stay quite. This is the etiquette everybody follows.
Isnt this forcing your view on others ? Is this good behaviour ?
You have done the same in other threads also. And you got an apt reply.
You wanted this discussion dude. Not me. My only interest was for you not populating my thread with unrelated arguments. You have got your playground now enjoy. Bye.
Yes, but why?
The likelihood is still 50:50.
How is my posts not adding to the betterment.
And i m talking about trading , nothing else. Have i deviated from the topic? Isn’t day trading on leverage related to this topic.
I stated my opinion in the first post that SEBI is doing the right thing.
I m not forcing it on anyone. If people don’t want to see the facts , they can rightly choose to do so. This is still a free country. However you still not proven that trading is NOT gambling.
Why you avoid my questions?
LOL , that person has stopped posting or he is cherry picking his posts. i choose to ignore him and his thread. Not worth my time.
I did not want this discussion , but i m ok with it. Nothing wrong in discussing matters related to trading on a trading forum , right?
Again why is trading not related to your thread. I don’t get it.
My playground. LOL. I don’t need to do this. I only do this to save some poor soul from making another “i lost 10 lacs intraday trading”.
I request you , please put me on your ignore list and don’t respond. Since you evade the real questions on trading anyways.
I m here if you still need me.
Trading is betting with information available at hand and then identifying odds in your favour (probability)
In gambling you just bet with no information and odds in your favour and against both are 50% each. So, here you only depend upon Rs 11 ka prasad.
IF YOU DONT HAVE ANY INFO then probability is 50/50
IF GOOD INFO IS AVAILABLE the probability of favourable result is >50
Ohh…don’t tell me…you mean fundamentals dude…we chartered accountants cook most of them to look fancy …and not all glitter you see is gold…so there are still chances that your investments might still go bust,what ever fundamental stuff you do, though the chances are low that you loose all your money when it comes to value investing…so inturn both trading and investing involves risk and return…and return in both is not guaranteed.its pure chance and risk management…and not gambling…and for your info gambling is what you do in mahalakshmi race course…
Care to elaborate what that good info is ? and how it adds to improve the probability?
Easy to make generic statements like that.
Ok mate , whatever you say.
Live in your fantasy world.
BTW , you still have not posted you contract notes.
you seem to contradict yourself.