Trading is gambling or not : An interesting discussion

Let this be a place for discussion about this moral/philosophical issue. I am sure many have flogged this dead horse already but some like to discuss it still. So for their benefit here we go…
@trader_dude

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if one controls risk and emotions then trading isn’t gambling. if one is betting all the money just like in casino then its gambling. so this depends on the person who is trading or say ‘gambling’ :slight_smile:

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Exactly ! It is about risk management. A person who does not understand the significance of probability and risk management, is gambling definitely. A person who understands it, reaps good rewards. The same principle applies to investing too. There have been many inexperience investors who have invested all their money in one stock and waited years for it to break even !!!
What do you say @trader_dude ? This thread is missing you :wink:

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I don’t want to be drawn between what was happening between you two :see_no_evil::hear_no_evil::speak_no_evil:
but,

  1. Psychology
  2. Risk management
  3. Strategy
    All the above go hand in hand to be a good trader.
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Every next trade you take has a probability of 50/50 , agree or not?

This question is for everyone.

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as per me,

if you have the reason behind your trades, it’s business.

and if no reason, just to make money or be exited, it’s gambling.

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No, incorrect.

@AARB

So you are telling me that your trades have more than 50% probabilities?

Is that correct?

Oh i m going to be here.

I m going to enjoy this thread.

Please be ready to give proofs of your claims.

Starting with you.

@incognito_man

This BS about psychology and risk mgmt has been fed too much all over by people in this business. By people i mean educators/call tips providers/trading website like moneycontrol…etc. This is an industry which is built to lure the retail trader into believing that he can make money sitting at home and looking at some charts.

you have to understand who benefits from your losses in trading?

Why do every person in the world think they are smarter than the markets? Why do you think institutions exists if they could trade profitably sitting at home?.

The industry statistics is 90/90/90. 90% of the retail traders lose 90% of time in 90 days, and they start all over again. This is a well know statistics in the brokerage world all over the world including india.

Why do you think nithin quit trading and started brokerage business?.

I m afraid , if i start giving out the facts, this thread will be unlisted as its not in the best interest of Zerodha. But then again no retail traders believes any of this and they keep losing and losing , so i guess Zerodha is safe as a business.

More thoughts later…

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I agree, if you are using fundamental to base your trades, nothing wrong with it.

But we are talking about day trading , so what basis are you using for day trading? and please dont tell me Technical analysis.

I request everyone to please keep the discussion civil ,or i m not going to participate.

judge for yourself .Let me you show 2 examples quickly
1)


2)
range

Do you think a experienced trader looking at these charts thinks - on the final bar of chart number 1 and 2 he has a 50% chance of success in both cases?

@AARB
define success?

there is 50/50 chance on both charts that price can go up or down.

Let me give you an excercise.

Download nifty from inception.

  1. calculate how many up and down days were there from inception.
  2. then calculate the probability of nifty going up or down.

you can do this on excel using stat package.

Let me know the results.

and BTW experienced traders dont day trade, they using fundamentals to may be a little bit of TA to time their entries , if they believe in TA that is. Timing again is purely subjective, but not fundamentals.

is this a reply to my post ?

I said nothing about gaps. I have asked you a simple question. There are many gaps on chart number 2 yet the market is range bound. Why are you asking about gaps?

@AARB,

I have not mentioned anything about gaps.

my mind is playing tricks, apologies. Now reading you answer again makes me think you do not understand strength of market move. Keep learning more about them.

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@AARB

I m afraid this is not going to go anywhere.

why do you think i do not understand markets and you understand markets so well.

kindly explain to everyone so we can all learn from you.

Because of your answer to my earlier question. I have asked you a simple enough question- if the probability of entering into trades on those 2 charts were 50%-50% or not . Thereafter you “gave me an exercise” to “calculate how many up and down days were there from inception” which was far removed from the context of the discussion.
If every trade was 50%-50% then why do you think R:R ratio works so well on stock market?