Trading Set Up for Banknifty on 03/07/2019

Technical Analysis
1

1. SET UP to Trade Nifty Bank.

  • Trend: (⇔ - Not define trend)
    • Market is not trending anywhere, But there is mild Bies on Upside.
  • Market set up :(⇔- Neutral to trend)
    • Today Bank Nifty Force set up is Not Supportive for Buying. So, Today is Bad set up to buy. You should Avoid buying.
  • F&O Trader position: (⇔- Basis is flat )
    • The Difference between Bank Nifty future and spot (Basis) is now 120 Points. The Basis has fallen from last day about -4 points.
  • Bottom Line :
    • The Trend is Not define, But last day negative move can support today Up-move and give follow up on upside>> Bad set up to Buy.>>Basis fall.

    2. Sentiments

    • Global markets:
      • Dow Jones future is Negative & Hang Seng is Negative.
    • What is on News/TV
      • Gap up is not worth chasing it. When there is dips, you should Buy.
    • Positive News-flow::
      • Crude is Down 4,Hugh positive for india. Indian financial will impacted positive due to MTM profits on Bonds for Banks.
    • Negative News-flow::
      • Bond yeild is at lower end , indicating Lower growth.
    • Bottom Line:
      • Sentiments is Mild Positive. Sentiments are not supportive of on going Trend.

    3. Game Theory ( Tug of war between Buyer & Seller)

    • From where New Buying comes?
      • A.Since sentiments are Mild Positive, the Outside Trader will Buy with very Mild Force. B. Trader's with a short Position-"less" chance for short covering today.
    • From where new selling come?
      • A.Since Sentiments are Mild Positive, Outside Trader will on short on Rise Only.
    • Will buyers buys on dips?:
      • On Fall- Since the Trend is 'Not Define', There will be a moderate number of Buyers at the lower end which propels the Market to go up from Dips. Moreover at Dips Sellers who wanted to sell has sold off. So buying on dips is the Dominant Strategy as More Buyer and lack of Seller at the bottom of This Non-Trending Trend

    4. what I am going to do today (In bank nifty)

    • Set Up:
      • Today Bank Nifty Force set up is Not Supportive for Buying. So, Today is Bad set up to buy. You should Avoid buying.
    • Sentiments:
      • SentIments is Mild Positive.
    • Trading Edge:
      • My Today Trading edge points clubbing Setup & Sentiments is 60 Point. Today, I 'don't have Any Edge', So I will ' Not Trade Today'.
    • Entry on Edge:
      • Buy- When BN is below 31189.3
    • Exit on Fair price:
      • Fair Price for Today's Trade is at least 31426.3
      It's Significant intellectual property & New way to Analyse the Market which use Unconventional Instruments Like Behaviour Finance & Game Theory for getting clear & Unbies idea for Active Derivative Traders.

    Abhikumar Patel
    Twitter https://twitter.com/abhi_9392