Trading Set Up for Banknifty on 18/02/2019


#1

 

1. SET UP to Trade Nifty Bank.

  • Trend:(⇓ - downtrend)
  • " Bank Nifty is in the 2nd phase of bearish Trend. So, Supply is Still in control of the market today. Seller will have their Mild dominance over demand. "
  • Market set up :(/⇔- Neutral to trend)
  • Today Bank nifty Force set up is Supportive for Selling. So Today is Good set up to Sell. Today, you should look to sell.
  • F&O Trader position: (⇓- Basis is down )
  • The Difference between Bank Nifty future and spot (Basis) is now 73 Points. The Basis has fallen from last day about -23 points.
  • Bottom Line :
  • The Trend is down.>> Good set up to Sell.>>Basis fall.

2. Sentiments

  • Global markets:
  • Dow future is Mild up+ Asia is very much in positive.
  • What is on News/TV
  • Market weighdown by debt woes & market correct before it move higher!
  • Positive News-flow::
  • Global market Positive due to trade deal, But again india may not major benificial.
  • Negative News-flow::
  • Crude has inch up + PAIN in debt market as balanced sheet are not trust worthy
  • Bottom Line:
  • Sentiments is Mild Negative. Sentiments is also supportive to Downtrend.

3. Game Theory ( Tug of war between Buyer & Seller)

  • From where New Buying comes?
  • A. Since Sentiments are mild Negative, the Outside Trader will Buy on DIPS only.
  • From where new selling come?
  • A. Since Sentiments are mild Negative, Mild new short selling expected from outside Traders. B. Trader's with Long Position- "Less" chance for Long unwind today.
  • Will Seller sell on rise?
  • On rise-Since Trend is Down, There will be a higher number of Sellers at higher end which propels the market to go down from the intraday rise. Moreover, on Rising, a Buyer who wanted to buy has already bought. So Selling on the rise is a Dominant Strategy as more seller & lack of buyer on rising of downtrend market

4. what I am going to do today (In bank nifty)

  • Set Up:
  • Today Bank nifty Force set up is Supportive for Selling. So Today is Good set up to Sell. Today, you should look to sell.
  • Sentiments:
  • Sentiments is Mild Negative.
  • Trading Edge:
  • My Today Trading edge points clubbing Setup & Sentiments is -63 Point. Since My Trading Edge is less than -50, I will be only looking for shorting opportunity for Today.
  • Entry on Edge:
  • Sell- When BN is above 26786.25
  • Exit on Fair price:
  • Fair Price for Today's Trade is 26653.25
 

It’s Significant intellectual property & New way to Analyse the Market which use Unconventional Instruments Like Behaviour Finance & Game Theory for getting clear & Unbies idea for Active Derivative Traders.

Abhikumar Patel
Twitter


#2

Good analysis but be careful as markets are expected to be quite volatile & all such analysis sometimes don’t work.