Using F&O to Predict The Market (Beginner's analysis)

Hi guys!

Some observations

  • Nifty Futures (24 Feb Expiry) closed at a discount of 53 points - (bearish indicator)
  • The Put IVs (ATM PUT IV: 22.35%) are considerably higher than call IVs (ATM call IV: 13.33%). In line with that ,the Nifty VIX has gone up by 2.73%. (bearish indicator)
  • The increase in Put OI is 4618 and increase in Call OI is 36,926. However, put OI is more than call OI. (bearish indicator)

Seems like there is more downside coming.

Would request you to tell if I have wrongly concluded anything or missed something significant.



F&O specific data by itself also can be used for predictions, but can work even better with other data around the markets for a more balanced view. Just adding a few other points one may consider.

  1. Nifty fell below both its 50 and 100 day EMA, tried to break these two levels multiple times but got beaten down further. EMAs are important support and resistance points so should be a part.

  2. FII/DII Data. Ignoring the budget day fluctuations the January sell-off is pretty still active heading into February. Again one of the important barometers of at least daily/weekly predictions.

  3. IT stocks went red today for pretty much no reason at all, just because Facebook posted bad numbers. So it may recover to hold the index for next few sessions. ( activity in sectors with major weights)


Thanks! That’s a lot of indicators.