Hello and welcome to the Weekly Market Metrics! I’m Sandeep Rao, and we’re in Week 27 of 2026. If you were working towards a six-pack by now, you should have three. Just saying.
For the first time in close to three months, I don’t have to start with news about the Iran war. Thank god for small mercies.
But if you want more reasons to feel bad — Donald Trump apparently made more than $1 billion in crypto, not by trading but through licensing fees and such. And in other news, both Sri Lanka and Vietnam have been upgraded to upper-middle-income status by the World Bank. It’s interesting to note that the two countries took very different paths to get there — one is a story of recovery and resilience, and the other is one of consistent export-led growth.
The good news is that markets closed positively this week — Nifty is up roughly 1% over the week, trading around 24,250 as of Friday’s close. In general, a positive second half of the year feels within reach. Fingers crossed.
Section 1 — What Happened Last Week
Rate of Change (ROC) Across Indices
Another fairly quiet week across the headline indices. Nifty 50 gained 0.9%, while Smallcap 250 and Microcap 250 once again led the pack, both up around 1.5%. Midcap 150 also edged higher, adding 0.6%.
The broader story remains unchanged. Microcap 250 continues to dominate over the last three months, while Nifty 50 is still the only headline index down over the last six months. Breadth continues to favour the broader market.
Nifty Mid Select continues to be the strongest of the lot — up 5.6% for the year and now just about 1% away from reclaiming its all-time high. Nifty Bank took a small breather this week, down 0.4%, but that’s after a strong run over the last few months, and it’s still less than 6% away from its all-time high.
On YTD numbers, the broader market continues to stay well ahead. Microcap 250 has extended its lead to 12.1%, followed by Smallcap 250 at 8%. Next 50 is now up 3.7%, while Midcap 150 has inched higher to 2.3%. Nifty 50 has recovered further but still remains down 7.2% for the year. The gap has narrowed over the last few weeks, but the broader story hasn’t changed — 2026 continues to reward investors willing to look beyond the headline index.
Nifty Monthly Seasonality
June 2026 finished in the green with a gain of 1.35%, recovering a part of May’s decline.
Historically, July has been even stronger. Over the last 27 years, Nifty has finished higher in 19 out of 27 years, giving it a 70.4% win rate — the highest of any month so far in the calendar year. The average return has been around 1.75%, making July one of the seasonally strongest months for Indian equities. The bigger question now is whether July can build on that momentum.
NIFTY
Weekly
This week, Nifty gained 215 points, or 0.9%, to close at 24,271. It continues to trade comfortably above both the 10-week and 20-week SMAs, with the medium-term trend remaining positive. More importantly, this is Nifty’s highest weekly close in the last 11 weeks, dating back to Week 16.
One thing worth noting over the last three weeks: steady expansion in the weekly candles. The total trading range has increased from about 371 points three weeks ago, to 477 points the following week, and then to nearly 549 points this week. The candle bodies are also expanding alongside those ranges, suggesting price is becoming more directional rather than simply oscillating within a range. That’s usually a sign of increasing conviction from market participants.
After last week’s jump in volatility, things settled down a bit. Nifty’s average daily range eased to 164 points from 242 points last week, although the weekly range still expanded to nearly 549 points. Thursday was the quietest session at 136 points, followed by Wednesday at 155 points. The bigger moves came earlier in the week — Monday and Tuesday posting ranges of 195 and 206 points respectively.
Daily
The week started on a weak note. Monday and Tuesday were both down days, with Tuesday even closing below 24,000. But the bulls regained control in the second half. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday all closed in the green, helping Nifty reclaim 24,000. More importantly, Friday delivered a decisive close above the 24,250 resistance that had formed just a week earlier, ending the week at a fresh three-month high.
From a moving average perspective, the structure continues to improve. Nifty remains comfortably above the 21 EMA and the 50 EMA, and has now also closed above the 100-day EMA. The next major hurdle remains the 200-day SMA, currently placed around 24,870.
Hourly
The week began on a weak note as Tuesday’s sell-off pushed Nifty below the 50 EMA. But that weakness didn’t last long. Wednesday saw the index reclaim the moving average, and the momentum continued through Thursday and Friday. By the end of the week, Nifty had broken above last week’s highs and was trading comfortably above the 50 EMA. There was some profit-booking during the final few hours on Friday, but the hourly structure continues to favour the bulls.
Nifty Monthly Expiry — Tuesday, 30 June
The ATM straddle opened at around 114 points and quickly expanded to nearly 140 points by 9:45 AM, as Nifty fell 183 points within the first 30 minutes of trade. From there, the index staged a sharp 146-point recovery into around 11:30 AM, only to reverse again with a 170-point decline into 3 PM. As you’d expect from a monthly, quarterly, and half-yearly expiry, it was an exceptionally volatile session with large intraday swings in both directions. Challenging for non-directional option sellers, while directional long-volatility traders would likely have had the edge. Let me know in the comments how your expiry went.
Section 2 — What to Expect in the Coming Week
NIFTY
Friday’s strong close has improved the technical picture. Nifty has finally closed above the 24,250 resistance zone. The first level to watch is 24,200 — as long as Nifty holds above it, the immediate momentum remains positive. Below that, the 23,800–23,650 gap zone continues to be an important support area if we see a deeper pullback.
On the upside, the next major resistance remains around 24,600. A decisive close above that would bring the psychological 25,000 mark into focus.
The overall bias remains bullish . After spending several weeks consolidating above 24,000, the market has finally started pushing higher. The key question is whether the bulls can build on this breakout and challenge the next resistance zone.
The Nifty ATM straddle closed at 173 points, down from 212 points last week, implying an expected move of roughly 0.71% on either side. That gives an expected range of approximately 24,423 on the upside and 24,077 on the downside for the upcoming weekly expiry on Tuesday, 7 July .
With India VIX slipping below 12, the options market is pricing in a narrower move than last week. Whether realised volatility stays within that range or surprises again — as it has over the past couple of weeks — will be worth watching.
India VIX
India VIX saw a sharp decline this week, falling below 12 to close at 11.8 — one of the lowest readings since January 2026. A falling VIX usually means the market expects less volatility ahead. But as we’ve seen over the last few weeks, a low VIX doesn’t mean the market can’t have big intraday moves. For now, the broader trend in VIX continues to be lower, which remains supportive for equities.
Sectoral Performance
Nifty sector view: Leadership shifted again this week, with Nifty Realty taking the top spot after rallying 7.8%. Pharma followed with a 3.1% gain, while Consumption, CPSE, and FMCG rounded out the top five. Compared to last week, leadership became much more defensive — Pharma held on to its momentum while FMCG and Consumption joined the leaders. Auto, Fin Service, and Bank slipped out of the top five. Realty was the standout by a wide margin.
Monthly Tijori Index view (June):
- Textiles topped the month at +11.3%, on the government’s move to scrap the 11% cotton import duty from June through October, reinforced by progress on the India-UK and EU trade deals. Still net negative over the full year — more of a blip than a sustained trend.
- Communication Equipment gained 8.6%, driven by telecom infrastructure names on fresh export orders, a large BharatNet win, and 5G and AI data-centre demand for fibre. Strong across 3, 6, and 12 months — a sector we have spoken about in these pages multiple times.
- Pharma — API & CRAMS rose 8.4%, on defensive rotation out of IT plus rising API prices letting manufacturers push through hikes. One of only two sectors positive across every single timeframe, suggesting a genuine, sustained trend.
- Dairy Products gained 8.2% on falling crude easing costs, FMCG rotation, and strong seasonal demand. Worth watching.
- Microfinance climbed 7.9% on early signs the sector’s two-year stress cycle is turning, with loan books growing and delinquencies falling. Along with Pharma, it’s the other sector positive on every timeframe.
52-week high view: Pharma Small Cap, Pharma, and Pharma — API & CRAMS are all sitting exactly at their 52-week highs, and Dairy Products is just 0.3% off its peak. Combined with Pharma — API & CRAMS being positive across every timeframe, this adds real weight to the case that pharma’s strength is genuine and broad-based, not a one-month blip. Worth digging into these sectors for stock ideas.
Commodities
On the daily timeframe, both Gold and Silver finally saw some relief after several weeks of selling pressure. Gold futures rebounded to around ₹1,47,500 after finding support near ₹1,40,000. Silver also bounced sharply, climbing back above ₹2,40,000 after briefly slipping below ₹2,20,000. That said, both continue to trade well below their 50 EMAs — for now, this looks more like a relief rally than a confirmed trend reversal.
On a weekly basis, Silver led the gains at +6.3%, followed by Gold at +2.4% and Copper at +1.4%. Energy remained under pressure — Crude Oil slipped another 0.5% and Natural Gas gave up 1%. Despite the recent pullback, Natural Gas is still the standout performer of 2026, up over 163% for the year, while Crude Oil remains up around 41%.
Global Index Performance — 2026 YTD
For some added context this week, here’s a look at how world indexes have performed in 2026 so far.
Korea continues to lead the pack, up nearly 88%, followed by Taiwan at 59% and Japan at 35%. Among developed markets, the Nasdaq continues to outperform the S&P 500, while European indices have posted modest gains. Back home, Nifty is still down about 7% for the year, with only Hong Kong’s Hang Seng performing worse in this comparison.
In 2026, the leadership has clearly come from North Asian markets — led by Korea, Taiwan, and Japan.
One important caveat: everything above is in local currency terms. When you adjust for currency and compare returns in US dollar terms, the overall leadership doesn’t change much — Korea, Taiwan, and Japan continue to stand out. But the biggest difference is India. Nifty’s decline widens from about 7% in Rupee terms to over 12% in US dollar terms, reflecting the Rupee’s depreciation against the dollar this year. Local investors and global investors may look at the same chart, but their actual returns can differ considerably once currency is taken into account. Always useful to view markets from both perspectives.
Summary
Markets extended their recovery this week, with Nifty gaining just under 1% and closing at its highest weekly level in the last 11 weeks. More importantly, the index finally broke above the 24,250 resistance and reclaimed the 100-day EMA, keeping the medium-term trend firmly positive.
The broader market continues to lead. Microcap 250 remains the best-performing headline index of 2026, followed by Smallcap 250, while Nifty 50 is still the only major index in negative territory for the year. Nifty Bank took a breather this week but continues to trade close to its all-time high.
On the sectoral front, Realty stole the show with a sharp rally, while Pharma continued its impressive run. Across the Tijori indexes, Pharma remains one of the strongest themes, with multiple pharma-related sectors sitting at or near their 52-week highs.
Commodities finally saw some relief — Gold and Silver bounced after weeks of selling, although both remain below their 50-day moving averages, suggesting the broader trend is still weak.
The bottom line: the bulls remain in control. As long as Nifty holds above 24,200, the focus shifts toward the next major resistance around 24,600 — and potentially the psychological 25,000 mark beyond that. Fingers crossed.
What Caught My Attention This Week
Listen: The latest episode of The Morgan Housel Podcast — “The History of Uncertainty, The Magic of the Long Term, and Overstating New Technology.” Housel picks apart something he’s heard for two decades at every talk: that we live in a uniquely uncertain time. His case is that this feeling isn’t new — every generation thinks it’s living through unprecedented chaos — and that investors who actually do well are the ones who stop chasing the next headline and let time and patience compound quietly in the background. An important reminder not to get too bothered by the negativity around us, and to keep those SIPs going.
Listen: The Ken’s long-form podcast Intermission has a new episode on Bharti Airtel — masterfully tracing the company’s three-decade journey from the brink of bankruptcy in the early 2010s, through surviving two attempted takedowns by Reliance, to where it stands today. Close to four hours long but worth every minute. Sunil Bharti Mittal emerges as the clear hero of this corporate epic — the rest I’ll leave for you to discover. Outstanding storytelling by Rohin. Finished it in two days. Absolutely brilliant.
Events to Factor In
This week also marked the quarterly settlement — many of you would have received, or will soon receive, funds transferred from your broker account to your bank account. If you’re actively trading, don’t forget to transfer that money back before markets open on Monday. It’ll help ensure your trades continue without any margin-related surprises.
The key event on the calendar is the FOMC meeting minutes , scheduled for Wednesday, 8 July, at 11:30 PM IST — just a day before the Sensex weekly expiry on Thursday. If the minutes contain any surprises, expect volatility at Thursday’s open.
Other than that, no major known macro events are lined up for the week.
And after months of spending weekends wondering what headline we’d wake up to on Monday — here’s hoping that phase is finally behind us.
Stay safe as heavy monsoon rains continue across many parts of the country.
If you find this series useful, don’t forget to subscribe to the channel — and do share it with your friends.
Until then — stay curious, stay steady, and enjoy your weekend.