Hello and welcome to the Weekly Market Metrics! I’m Sandeep Rao, and we’re in Week 29 of 2026. After last week’s lesson about celebrating too early, I’ve decided to predict absolutely nothing this week.
Did you know the peace deal between Iran and the US has nothing concrete about how the Strait of Hormuz would actually be managed? Iran claims it alone runs the strait. But Trump is charging ships a 20% levy to keep it open — essentially protection money. So the world’s most important chokepoint currently has no rulebook, just two people taking turns claiming whatever they want. And we wonder why markets can’t price anything.
Which brings us to last week. The good news: it was less volatile than the week before. The better news: we actually inched higher, closing around 24,330 versus 24,200 the previous week — up about half a percent.
Section 1 — What Happened Last Week
Rate of Change (ROC) Across Indices
After several weeks of broader market leadership, the headline indices finally look green this week. Nifty 50 was the only index to end the week in the green, gaining 0.5%, while Next 50, Midcap 150, Smallcap 250, and Microcap 250 all closed lower. The broader picture remains unchanged — Microcap 250 continues to lead over the last three months, followed by Smallcap 250, while Nifty 50 remains the weakest of the headline indices.
Among the broader indices, Nifty Bank was the strongest performer this week, gaining 0.8%, followed by Sensex and Nifty 50 at 0.8% and 0.5% respectively. Nifty Mid Select was the only laggard, slipping 0.7% after its recent outperformance.
On distance from all-time highs, Nifty Mid Select continues to lead, trading less than 1% below its record high. Nifty Bank is now within 5% of its peak, while Nifty 50 and Sensex remain about 8% and 9% below their respective highs.
The broader market still holds a comfortable YTD lead, but this week saw some profit-booking across mid, small, and microcaps. Nifty 50, on the other hand, edged higher, helping narrow the gap slightly.
NIFTY
Weekly
Nifty resumed its uptrend, gaining 127 points, or 0.5%, to close at 24,334. More importantly, the index has now posted its second consecutive weekly close above the 24,200 zone, reinforcing it as an important support level after last week’s successful retest.
From a moving average perspective, there’s no major change from last week. Nifty continues to trade above both the 10-week and 20-week SMAs, while the 40-week SMA around 24,750 remains the next major resistance.
W29
W28
Volatility cooled sharply from the elevated levels seen in Week 28. The weekly trading range nearly halved, falling from 726 points to 367 points, indicating that the market has settled back into a more controlled phase. Friday was the most active session with a 268-point range, while the rest of the week remained relatively subdued. The 5-day average daily range eased to 202 points, staying below the 10-day average of 217 points.
Daily
Nifty spent most of the week consolidating after last week’s sharp recovery on Thursday and Friday. Monday through Thursday saw the index oscillate within a narrow range between 24,000 and 24,250, before Friday’s 1.1% rally pushed it above the 24,250 resistance once again. The move brings Nifty back within striking distance of the 24,465–24,600 resistance zone — the next hurdle for the bulls.
The technical structure continues to improve. Nifty remained above the 21-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages throughout the week, with all three now beginning to slope higher. The next major hurdle remains the 200-day SMA around 24,820. A decisive close above it would be a significant milestone and could open the door towards the psychological 25,000 mark.
An interesting observation: Nifty remained within the range of last Wednesday’s large bearish candle — the session triggered by the US-Iran ceasefire breakdown — for six of the last seven sessions. It was only on Friday that the index finally broke above that range. This breakout may have been driven by earnings expectations for index heavyweights. Reliance, HDFC, Kotak, ICICI, and Axis are all set to report results over the weekend, making next week an important one for Nifty.
Hourly
Nifty spent most of the week chopping around the 50 EMA, with neither bulls nor bears able to establish a clear edge. That changed on Friday — the index broke higher and ended the week comfortably above the 50 EMA, reinforcing the short-term bullish trend.
Nifty Weekly Expiry — Tuesday, 14 July
The ATM straddle opened at around 127 points, while the entire day’s range was just 133 points — the narrowest trading range of the week. For non-directional option sellers, it was almost an ideal expiry. Even more interesting was the last hour of trade: unlike the sharp post-3 PM moves seen on several recent expiries, Nifty stayed remarkably quiet. The index was trading around 24,050 at 2:30 PM and closed around the same level. When the market gives you a day like this, what more could an option seller ask for? Let me know in the comments if your expiry went as smoothly.
Section 2 — What to Expect in the Coming Week
NIFTY
Friday’s breakout above last Wednesday’s bearish candle is an encouraging sign for the bulls. The first level to watch is the 24,250–24,300 zone — as long as Nifty holds above it, the short-term structure remains constructive.
On the upside, immediate resistance lies around the 24,500–24,600 zone. Beyond that, the 200-day SMA near 24,820 remains the next major technical hurdle — a decisive close above it would be a significant milestone and could pave the way towards 25,000.
On the downside, 24,000 continues to be the first important support, followed by the 23,800 zone, which has repeatedly attracted buyers over the past few weeks.
The overall bias remains cautiously bullish . The market has absorbed the recent geopolitical shock, reclaimed key moving averages, and now appears to be looking toward the earnings season for its next trigger.
The Nifty ATM straddle is currently trading at around 248 points, up from 192 points last week, implying an expected move of roughly 1.02% on either side. That gives an expected range of approximately 24,582 on the upside and 24,086 on the downside for the upcoming weekly expiry on Tuesday, 21 July .
Implied volatility has increased from last week, suggesting the market is expecting a bigger move. With several Nifty heavyweights announcing earnings, it will be interesting to see whether the index stays within this expected range or breaks out of it.
India VIX
India VIX gained 7.3% during the week to close at 13.15. While volatility has picked up from last week’s lows, it still remains at relatively comfortable levels.
Sectoral Performance
Nifty sector view: Sectoral performance was fairly mixed. Nifty IT emerged as the top performer with a gain of 4.3%, followed by Media at 2.5%. Auto, Services, and Bank also ended the week in positive territory. Compared to last week, Realty dropped out of the top five after leading the charts, while IT continued to remain among the strongest sectors. Bank also made it into the top five this week — and with some of the largest banking stocks set to announce results, it’ll be interesting to see if the sector can maintain its momentum.
Tijori index view: IT Large Cap tops the weekly leaderboard again — up 3.5%, two weeks in a row. Last week’s caution still applies: the basket is sitting 26% below its 52-week high and down almost 22% over the year. Still worth watching.
The one worth actually pointing to is EMS — Electronics Manufacturing Services — the companies that build electronics for larger brands, or contract manufacturing as it’s called. Structurally supported by the broader Indian manufacturing story, and the numbers show it. Up 3% this week, but look at the shape: 8.5% over a month, 18.9% over three months, 30.3% over six months. The one-year number is only 6.9%, which tells you almost the entire move has happened in the last six months.
One notable observation across TJIs this week: not a single basket is at a 52-week high. Breadth has paused — plenty of movement, but nobody’s breaking new ground.
Commodities
Gold was trading around ₹1,40,000, while Silver was near ₹2,18,400. Both metals continued to remain under pressure — still trading below their 50-day moving averages and continuing to make lower highs and lower lows. Until they reclaim these key levels, the broader trend remains on the downside.
On a weekly basis, commodities were mixed. Crude Oil was the standout performer, rallying over 14% on the week as supply concerns resurfaced. Copper was largely unchanged, ending marginally higher. Gold fell 2.3%, while Silver declined 3.6%. Natural Gas also ended the week slightly lower, but despite the recent correction, it continues to be the best-performing commodity of 2026, up more than 136% year-to-date.
Summary
Nifty ended the week with a modest gain of 0.5%, but the real story was Friday’s breakout after several sessions of consolidation. The index continues to hold above the 21, 50, and 100-day moving averages, while the 200-day SMA around 24,820 remains the next major hurdle.
The broader market took a breather this week, although the longer-term leadership of midcaps and smallcaps remains intact. Among sectors, IT led the gains, while Bank made it back into the top five ahead of an important week. In commodities, Crude Oil surged on renewed supply concerns, while Gold and Silver remained under pressure.
The bottom line: the overall market structure continues to look constructive. As long as Nifty holds above the 24,200–24,000 support zone, the focus remains on a move towards the 200-day SMA and, eventually, the 25,000 mark.
Events to Factor In
There are no major known macro events scheduled for the coming week. The focus instead shifts to earnings season , which has now begun. With several large companies reporting results — Reliance, HDFC, Kotak, ICICI, and Axis among the weekend reporters — it’ll be interesting to see how the market reacts and whether those earnings provide the next trigger for the index.
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Until then — stay curious, stay steady, and enjoy your weekend.