Hello and welcome to the Weekly Market Metrics. I’m Sandeep Rao, and we’re in Week 34 of 2026. Good to be back in the studio — I’ve caught a cold, but the show goes on.
The big stories this week.
The Strait of Hormuz is still in a standoff. Washington says it’s open, Tehran says it’s shut to anyone who doesn’t ask first — but most ships are slipping through with transponders off. Oil prices remain elevated, with Brent near $93 a barrel.
On the CAS front — the newly introduced Closing Auction Session we spoke about last episode — it seems someone tried to game it. This week, SEBI pulled up two firms for allegedly rigging the Sensex close on expiry day. One flooded the auction with buy orders to push the index up, the other took the sell side, and both cancelled once they had the price they wanted. The alleged spoils: around ₹3.68 crore. Finshots — How traders allegedly gamed CAS
SEBI also released two interesting studies this week on the behaviour and profitability of individual F&O traders. Worth reading — links in the show notes. SEBI F&O study 1 | SEBI F&O study 2
And after a long time, the gold rush is back. More on that in commodities. There’s also a bit of a sugar rush in the market — more on that in sectors.
As for the broader market, it was a tepid week, with the index closing in the red at around 24,250.
Section 1 — What Happened Last Week
Rate of Change (ROC) Across Indices
It was a relatively quiet fortnight for the markets. Nifty 50 slipped 0.5%, while Next 50 also ended lower by 0.7%. The broader market, however, continued to hold up better, with both Smallcap 250 and Microcap 250 gaining 0.7%, while Midcap 150 was largely flat.
Looking beyond the last two weeks, the broader market continues to outperform. Over the 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month periods, Microcap 250 remains the strongest performer. Nifty 50, on the other hand, is still negative over the last six months and continues to lag.
Nifty Bank was the only index to end the week in the green, gaining 0.5%, while Nifty 50, Mid Select, and Sensex all closed lower.
On YTD performance, Nifty Mid Select continues to lead with an 8% gain so far this year. Nifty Bank is down a relatively modest 3%, Nifty 50 has fallen 7%, and Sensex remains the weakest performer, down 9% for the year.
In terms of distance from all-time highs, Mid Select is the closest, trading just 1.34% below its peak. Nifty Bank is about 6% below its all-time high, Nifty 50 around 8%, while Sensex remains the furthest at nearly 10% below its peak.
On a broader YTD view, Microcap 250 continues to lead with gains of over 16%, followed by Smallcap 250 at around 10%. Nifty JR has held up well with gains of around 6%, Midcap 150 is up about 5%, and Nifty 50 remains the clear laggard, still down around 7% for the year.
NIFTY
Weekly
On the weekly chart, Nifty extended its decline for a second consecutive week. After falling 0.83% last week, it slipped another 0.47% this week. The index continues to face resistance around the 24,600 zone, which has capped every attempt to move higher over the past few weeks. That remains the key resistance — a close above it would be a positive sign.
Nifty continues to trade above the 10-week EMA and the 20-week SMA, but it is still below the 40-week SMA, which is sitting right around the same 24,570–24,600 level, making it an even more important hurdle to cross.
Daily
On the daily chart, Nifty had a weak start to the week, forming three consecutive red candles and slipping to the 24,000 zone. However, the index found support around that level and recovered over the last two sessions with two green candles, ending the week around 24,250.
On Monday, Nifty slipped below the 21-day EMA, and by Tuesday, it had briefly fallen below both the 50-day and 100-day EMAs as well. Thursday’s gap-up opening and Friday’s close, however, helped the index recover most of the lost ground. Nifty is now back above the 50-day and 100-day EMAs and is trading very close to the 21-day EMA. The 200-day SMA, currently placed around 24,700, continues to be the next major resistance to watch.
An update on the 1,500-point range tracked over the past few weeks: the range remains intact. Nifty briefly moved above the upper end of the range earlier this month, but the breakout couldn’t sustain. Over the last two weeks, the index has slipped back inside and is now trading comfortably within it again. A move above 24,600 would also mean a breakout from this range that Nifty has been stuck in since April 2026.
Hourly
Nifty stayed below the 50-hour EMA from 11 August all the way until Friday. Friday’s up move took the index back above the 50-hour EMA, flipping the short-term trend back to bullish and capturing around a 200-point move. For now, Nifty is trading right around this moving average.
Nifty Weekly Expiry — Tuesday, 18 August
Nifty traded in a narrow 105-point range. The ATM straddle opened at 88 points and was still trading at 44 points at 3:15 PM, before the market went into the CAS. The final closing price was just 11 points below the 3:15 PM price.
Sensex Weekly Expiry — Thursday, 20 August
The index traded in a range of less than 250 points, while the ATM straddle opened at 266 points. Realised volatility came in lower than implied volatility. Even at 3:15 PM, the straddle was still trading around 138 points — almost 50% of its opening premium. The CAS closing was 52 points above the 3:15 PM price.
Since the introduction of CAS, expiry-day moves in both Nifty and Sensex have been relatively muted, yet nearly 50% of the 0DTE straddle premium continues to remain intact until the last 15 minutes. Whether this is a bug or a feature, only time and more expiries will tell.
Section 2 — What to Expect in the Coming Week
NIFTY
The picture remains fairly straightforward. On the weekly chart, 24,600 continues to be the key resistance — coinciding with the 40-week moving average, making this zone even more important. A close above it would be a positive sign and could finally help Nifty break out of the 1,500-point range it has been stuck in since April 2026.
On the downside, 24,000 remains the immediate support. As long as Nifty stays above this level, the short-term structure remains intact. A break below 24,000 could once again shift momentum in favour of the bears.
The ATM straddle is trading around 160 points for the upcoming monthly expiry on Tuesday, 25 August , implying an expected move of roughly ±160 points from the 24,250 level. This is the lowest premium seen on a 2DTE in recent memory. It’ll be interesting to see whether the 0DTE premium once again holds on to nearly 50% of its value going into the CAS, or if it starts behaving more normally.
India VIX
India VIX continued to cool off over the last two weeks and is now trading around 11.2, pretty close to its lowest levels in recent months. This suggests that the options market is expecting relatively low volatility in the near term. Unless a major global or domestic trigger emerges, volatility is likely to remain subdued. That said, with VIX at these levels, any unexpected event can still lead to a sharp spike.
Sectoral Performance
Nifty sector view: Nifty Metal and Nifty Realty were the top-performing sectors this week, both gaining around 1.8%, followed by Nifty Media. Nifty Bank and Nifty CPSE also made it to the top five with a modest 0.5% gain. Over the last two weeks, Nifty Media and Nifty Realty featured among the top performers in both weeks. There was no clear sectoral theme, suggesting the market continues to remain stock-specific rather than broad-based.
Tijori index view: Sugar tops the list with a whopping 14% gain this week — tight supply, festive demand, and cane going to ethanol seems to be driving sugar prices up. Metal Pipes are up 5.6%, lifted by the broader metals rally. Transformers up 4.1%, powered by the grid-expansion capex boom. Pipe Manufacturers also up 4.1%, drifting up with the broader pipe pack. And QSR is up 3%, benefiting from an earnings bounce as food-cost inflation eases.
On the 52-week high front, Pharma and Logistics stand out as the notable ones this week. As always, double-click these sectors — great picks could be hiding in plain sight.
Commodities
Gold is up about 5% for the week. The reason: weak US jobs data and cooler inflation have convinced markets that the Federal Reserve won’t be hiking rates any time soon, which in turn has dragged the dollar to a two-month low. Gold tends to do well when the dollar goes down. Add safe-haven demand from the Middle East and continued central bank buying — the rally does seem to have legs.
Gold futures continued the momentum picked up after moving above their 50-day EMA on 7 August. Gold is now trading around ₹1,59,950, well above the 50-day EMA at ₹1,50,040. Silver also extended its rally, closing near ₹2,48,200, comfortably above its 50-day EMA at ₹2,36,800. Both precious metals remain in a strong uptrend.
Looking at the broader commodities basket, it was a strong week across the board. Crude Oil was the top performer, gaining 6.9%, followed by Silver and Gold, both up around 4.4%. Copper and Natural Gas also ended the week in positive territory.
On a YTD basis, Natural Gas remains the best-performing commodity, up over 118%, followed by Crude Oil at 84%. Among metals, Gold has now turned positive for the year at +7.1%, while Silver and Copper are still marginally negative.
Summary
Not much has changed in the bigger picture. 24,000 continues to act as support, while 24,600–24,700 remains the key resistance. Until one of these levels breaks, Nifty is likely to stay within the same 1,500-point range tracked since April.
Volatility remains low, but the behaviour of 0DTE option premiums after the introduction of CAS is still worth watching. Outside equities, gold stole the show with another strong rally, while crude oil also remained firm.
Next week should once again be all about whether Nifty can finally break above 24,600.
What Caught My Attention This Week
Listen: An episode of Odd Lots on the Japanese yen. When a currency falls too fast, its central bank usually props it up — much like our own RBI does with the rupee. What’s unusual here is that the United States pitched in to help Japan defend the yen, something not often seen. Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations reckons it can hold, but only if Japan’s central bank finally raises interest rates. The aim is to keep the yen from sliding past about 160 to the dollar. Watch here
Watch: An episode of How to Touch Grass by The Atlantic, which asks a very important question: why bother learning anything when machines can code, calculate, and translate for us? Cognitive psychologist Michelle Miller argues that learning is how we build the mind we want to live in. The effort is the point, and the struggle is what makes it human. There’s another point worth adding: we need to know the subject matter so we can recognise when machines go rogue. Watch here
Events to Factor In
- Tuesday, 25 August — Monthly expiry for all NSE index derivatives: Nifty, Bank Nifty, and Midcap Nifty.
- Thursday, 27 August — Monthly expiry for BSE indices: Sensex and Bankex.
No major domestic macro events are scheduled this week, so it should be relatively quiet on that front.
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Until then — stay curious, stay steady, and enjoy your weekend.