Hello and welcome to Weekly Market Metrics!
We’re in week 46 of the year—just six weeks left in 2025! And I’m already preparing for 2025’s grand finale. I’ve just started cleaning my room, organizing my files, and deleting junk emails… basically doing all the things I promised I’d do back in January.
Anyway, let me get back to business—time for our weekly dose of market metrics.
My expectations from two weeks ago finally played out this week… even though they didn’t happen last week when I actually wanted them to. Now I’m stuck in the classic trader’s dilemma: should I expect, or should I not expect? At this point, even my timing has trust issues.
Big news this week: Warren Buffett officially retired, marking the end of an era in investing. I wanted to plug one of my previous episodes here… but nah, I’ll save that for another day.
Otherwise, all hunky-dory with the markets this week, though there was a bit of indecision thanks to the Bihar election results on Friday. I assumed it would be a total non-event… turns out, I was completely wrong.
Anyways, let’s get started with the charts and indexes. As always, Nifty first.
NIFTY 50 - Technical Analysis
Weekly Timeframe
NIFTY held the 25,300 low from last week, and this week it made a higher low at 25,450. For the week, NIFTY rallied 418 points—about 1.64%—to close at 25,910.
It did run into some resistance near the 26,000 zone and saw a bit of selling, but Friday’s close was still pretty strong. Key resistances remain at 26,000 and 26,100, with support sitting at 25,300.
As discussed last week, we finally got that weekly close above the previous week’s high near 25,800, so the bias shifts positive for now. Let’s see how the index behaves in the coming sessions.
Daily Timeframe
NIFTY posted five straight green candles this week based on the previous day’s close. Tuesday and Thursday were particularly volatile—on Thursday, NIFTY hit resistance at 26,000 and then dropped almost 1% from the day’s highs going into Friday.
But Friday at 3 PM saw a strong recovery, with the index gaining almost half a percent from 3 PM to 3:30 PM.
Resistance levels remain the same as the weekly—26,000 and 26,100. Support is at 25,450 and 25,000. On the daily chart, NIFTY needs to close above 26,000 before it can attempt a further move higher.
Hourly Timeframe
NIFTY traded below the 50-EMA until the last hour on Tuesday. After that, it spent the rest of the week holding above the 50-EMA.
Friday’s gap-down opening gave a small shock to the longs, and price hovered around the 50-EMA through the session, but it never closed below it. The final hour’s candle completely changed the tone and set things up for what looks like an exciting week ahead with an upward bias.
The 1-hour bias is now positive, and hopefully the price continues to push higher.
Overnight vs. Intraday Moves
Intraday movement clearly dominated, with NIFTY gaining 1.19% intraday versus just 0.4% overnight. NIFTY opened with positive gaps in the first four sessions, but Friday’s negative opening almost wiped out the cumulative positive gaps for the week.
Looking at 2025 year-to-date, NIFTY has gained roughly +9.10% from overnight moves, while only +1.71% has come from intraday moves.
BANK NIFTY - Technical Analysis
Weekly Timeframe
After going nowhere for the last three weeks, BANKNIFTY finally broke out and made a new ATH at 58,616 this week, before closing just 100 points lower at 58,518. The index gained 641 points, or 1.11%, marking the highest weekly close ever for BANKNIFTY.
Support and resistance zones remain unchanged from last week—support at 57,600 and resistance at 58,600 near the ATH. Above that, the index is in blue-sky territory, with no historical resistance. The weekly outlook remains bullish, with the index hovering near its all-time high.
Daily Timeframe
BANKNIFTY posted five straight green candles, just like NIFTY. Key levels remain the same as the weekly chart—resistance near 58,600 and support in the 57,600–57,400 zone, and then at 57,000.
BANKNIFTY made a new ATH on Thursday but faced some selling in the last hour. Friday opened with a gap-down, but the recovery in the final 30 minutes was sharp and convincing.
Hourly Timeframe
BANKNIFTY hovered around the 50-EMA until the first half of Tuesday, and after that, it held above the 50-EMA for the rest of the week—very similar to NIFTY.
Overall, BANKNIFTY continues to look strong across multiple timeframes, and being near its ATH only adds to the momentum.
NIFTY MIDCAP SELECT - Technical Analysis
Weekly Timeframe
MIDCPNIFTY made a new ATH this week, just like BANKNIFTY. The index gained 419 points, or 3.11%, to close at 13,865. As mentioned in last week’s newsletter, it closed above the 13,620 level and is now back in blue-sky territory with no resistance overhead.
Support remains at 13,550 and 13,250. The weekly outlook is bullish, as the index is at an ATH.
Daily Timeframe
MIDCPNIFTY formed four green candles this week based on the previous day’s close, with just one red candle on Thursday. Support lies near the gap area at 13,750–13,700, followed by 13,600 and 13,350.
There’s no resistance on the chart since the index is sitting at its all-time high.
SENSEX - Technical Analysis
Weekly Timeframe
After two back-to-back red weekly candles, the index bounced this week, gaining 1,347 points, or about 1.62%, to close at 84,563. This marks the highest weekly close since September 2024.
Resistance sits at 85,300 and then near the 86,000 ATH zone. Support is near this week’s low at 83,200. The weekly outlook is bullish, as SENSEX has posted its highest weekly close in almost 14 months.
Daily Timeframe
The story is similar to NIFTY and BANKNIFTY—five straight green candles this week. Resistance is at 85,300, and support is at 83,150.
The upper wicks seen over the last three sessions need to be taken out with a strong closing for a meaningful up-move toward the ATH. The bias here remains bullish for now.
Market Metrics Summary
Rate of Change (Weekly Performance)
In the second week of November, it’s greenery across the board, with MIDCPNIFTY leading the pack at +3.11% for the week, followed by +1.64% on NIFTY, +1.62% on SENSEX, and +1.11% on BANKNIFTY.
Year-to-date (YTD), BANKNIFTY continues to be the strongest performer with +15% gains, followed by NIFTY at +9.6%, and SENSEX at +8.2%.
Directional Bias
Last week, NIFTY and SENSEX had a negative short-term bias, but this week all four indices show positive short-term and medium-term bias.
What does this mean? It simply indicates that momentum has shifted in favor of the bulls, and the market is aligned for continuation on the upside unless key support levels are broken.
Sectoral Performance
PHARMA, up 2.94%, and AUTO, up 1.72%, continue to stay in the top five just like last week—with NIFTY IT taking the top spot this time with 3.37% gains for the week.
The other two new entrants in the top five are INFRA and SERV SECTOR, gaining 2.4% and 1.54% respectively. Will the next up-move be led by the NIFTY IT sector? Let’s wait and watch.
Volatility & Derivatives
Range, Straddle & Expiries
NIFTY’s 5-day average range is still around 200 points, which is similar to the past two weeks and also matches the 10-day average range.
This week, the highest daily range for NIFTY came on Tuesday with 267 points, unlike the previous two weeks, where Friday had the largest range. And it wasn’t just NIFTY—BANKNIFTY, MIDCPNIFTY, and SENSEX; all recorded their highest daily ranges on Tuesday as well.
Even though Friday was volatile because of the Bihar election results, Tuesday still remained the highest-range day across all four indices.
The NIFTY 2DTE straddle premium is at 204, up from last week’s 175. So there’s a slight uptick in NIFTY volatility compared to last week, but it’s still in line with the average daily range of the past 5 and 10 days, which sits around 200 points.
Now, talking about the NIFTY expiry—this week’s NIFTY expiry was one of the toughest. The index dropped 190 points in the first hour and then rallied 266 points from the lows all the way to the close. And all of this happened with the straddle premium sitting around ₹115 at 9:16 AM.
Hopefully, option buyers or long-gamma players managed to capture some of that move, but for option sellers, it was a rough day.
Then came the SENSEX expiry on Thursday, which made the NIFTY expiry look easy. The index was extremely jumpy, creating a massive 666-point range, with an opening straddle premium of ₹325. The post-2 PM down-move was brutal for short-vol players—many OTM puts shot up from ₹5 to ₹50 in no time.
Two tough expiries back-to-back. Hopefully, next week is a little quieter.
India VIX
INDIAVIX finally cooled down 5% this week, closing at 11.9375. VIX hovering around the same range for the past few weeks makes me want to think this is the new normal volatility zone—but you already know how bad I am with ‘predictions.’
So let’s just wait and watch where INDIAVIX heads next.
Commodities Update
(Data: MCX Continuous Futures - Back Adjusted)
After a steady week across the commodities space, Gold posted a weekly gain of 2.69%, continuing its strong momentum with solid returns across all timeframes—up 27% over six months and 54% year-to-date. Despite this strength, it still sits about 4.82% below its all-time high.
Silver outperformed all major metals this week with a 6.69% gain, extending its impressive medium-term uptrend—up 58% in six months and nearly 70% year-to-date. It remains about 5.94% off its ATH but continues to be the top performer among the precious metals.
Copper was relatively quiet, gaining 0.86% for the week. Its broader trend remains healthy, with 10% three-month and 12% six-month gains. It’s currently around 5.65% off its ATH.
Crude Oil stayed weak, slipping 0.34% for the week and remaining in a broader downtrend.
Natural Gas bounced this week with a 3.51% gain, continuing its momentum from the past month, where it’s up 8.89%.
Overall, precious metals continue to lead, base metals remain steady, Crude Oil stays weak, and Natural Gas shows early signs of a potential turnaround.
Summary & Looking Ahead
This was a strong and green week across the market.
NIFTY held above last week’s low, formed a higher low at 25,450, and closed at 25,910—flipping the weekly bias back to positive. It still faces resistance at 26,000–26,100.
BANKNIFTY and MIDCPNIFTY both hit new all-time highs, with both posting their highest weekly close ever. SENSEX also turned positive, logging its best weekly close in over a year.
Across timeframes—daily, weekly, and hourly—all four indices now show a positive short-term and medium-term structure. Sectors were led by IT, Pharma, Auto, Infra, and Services, while volatility remained low despite two extremely tricky expiries.
INDIAVIX cooled off to around 11.9, and in commodities, Gold and Silver stayed strong, while Natural Gas continued its bounce.
Overall—a healthy, bullish week with momentum building across the board.
What to Expect Next Week
We have a full five-trading-day stretch with no major events lined up, which means price action will likely be driven purely by market sentiment and technical levels.
The big question is: Will NIFTY and SENSEX finally touch their all-time highs?
I’m generally a glass-half-full kind of person, so I’d say the setup looks promising—the structure is strong, momentum is healthy, and breadth is improving. But as always, the market will do what it wants to do… so let’s see how it plays out.
That’s pretty much it for this week. And yes—don’t forget to subscribe to the channel.
Until then—stay curious, stay steady, and have a great weekend!
See you soon!