Hello and welcome to the Weekly Market Metrics!
I am Sandeep Rao, and we’re in Week 52 of the year—time to say goodbye to 2025.
Pretty much want to say good riddance! That’s how bad it was for markets and the traders.
Talking about the week, markets continued to be choppy. It’s one of those one step forward and two steps backward kind of price action. The breadth is largely concentrated towards the large caps, with broader markets bleeding.
Not the kind of Christmas rally we wanted. While Monday had a solid bullish run, the rest of the week didn’t seem to agree, so what to expect now? Let’s check the charts and see how the price action played out and what looks possible for the coming week.
As always, Nifty first.
NIFTY 50 - Technical Analysis
Weekly Timeframe
Nifty ended the week in the green, but the bigger picture hasn’t changed. The index is still stuck in the 25,700–26,200 range.
This week’s high was 26,236, but it couldn’t hold there and closed at 26,042. That’s a gain of 76 points, or 0.29%, compared to last week. The close above 26,000 is again a small silver lining.
The weekly range narrowed further to just 228 points, or 0.87%, down from last week’s 320-point range. This clearly shows the lack of activity in the last couple of weeks of December, as most market participants are on holiday.
Immediate support is at the 26,000 level, followed by the 25,850–25,700 zone. On the upside, immediate resistance is at 26,200, with the all-time high around 26,325 acting as the next hurdle.
I’m expecting a decisive breakout or breakdown from this range in the first week of Jan 2026. This month-long consolidation sets the stage for a meaningful move. My bias is on the upside—let’s see how it plays out.
Daily Timeframe
On the daily timeframe, consolidation continued, but this week the range compressed even further. NIFTY remained stuck in a narrow band of roughly 228 points, between 26,236 on the upside and 26,008 on the downside.
The week had only four trading sessions—the first two closed in the green, while the last two ended in the red. On Wednesday, the index attempted a move above 26,200 but faced selling pressure from that level. The selling persisted into Friday, though NIFTY managed to close above the psychological 26,000 mark.
Support and resistance levels remain broadly in line with the weekly chart. Immediate support is placed at 26,000, followed by 25,850, and the lower end near 25,700. On the upside, 26,200 continues to act as the key resistance area.
Overall, there is still no clear directional strength on the daily chart.
Hourly Timeframe
On the 1-hour timeframe, NIFTY extended its move above the 50 EMA from last Friday with a gap-up opening on Monday. However, through the week, the price kept drifting lower while the EMA caught up, and by Friday, NIFTY was back below the 50 EMA.
This clearly shows that no trend is getting sustained, either on the upside or the downside. Momentum fades quickly, making trend-following extremely difficult. December, which is historically a positive month, is not playing out that way this year.
Based on the 1-hour chart, the bias remains sideways, with choppy price action and no clear edge for directional trades.
NIFTY Range Till Expiry
Talking about NIFTY’s expected range into the Tuesday, 30th December expiry—which is also the monthly, quarterly, and half-yearly expiry.
Based on options data, the ATM straddle closed around 128 points, down from 155 points last week, indicating lower expected volatility.
With NIFTY spot closing near 26,042, the implied expiry range comes to:
- Upside: 26,042 + 128 = 26,170
- Downside: 26,042 − 128 = 25,914
So, a 0.5% move on either side from the current close. Options pricing suggests no major move is expected into expiry. That said, there are times when the realised move exceeds what options are pricing in, so it’s something to keep in mind.
Open Interest Analysis
Looking at the open interest data, 26,200 CE and 26,100 CE hold the highest open interest on the call side. On the put side, 26,000 PE has the third-highest open interest.
This suggests that market participants are not expecting NIFTY to move beyond the 26,200 level by expiry. The 26,200 zone is showing up as resistance across multiple analyses, making it an important level to watch.
That said, in highly liquid contracts like NIFTY, open interest can shift very quickly from one strike to another. So this data only reflects what the market is currently pricing in, not a fixed outcome.
SENSEX - Technical Analysis
Weekly Timeframe
On the weekly timeframe, SENSEX saw its range compress even further. The weekly range shrank to about 800 points, down from last week’s 1,040-point range, highlighting continued consolidation.
The index closed 112 points higher, or 0.13%, compared to last week, but the candle was very weak—with a long upper wick and almost no real body. This kind of price action suggests a lack of conviction at higher levels.
Support levels remain unchanged, with the 84,500–84,200 zone on the downside. On the upside, resistance continues to stand near 85,700. Overall, SENSEX remains in a consolidation phase, with no clear directional edge on the weekly chart.
Daily Timeframe
On the daily timeframe, SENSEX showed some early strength this week with a gap-up opening on Monday. There were attempts on Tuesday and Wednesday to move above the 85,700 level, but the index failed to close above it.
Selling pressure kicked in from Wednesday, continued on Friday, and the SENSEX finally closed near 85,041. The index remains range-bound, with 85,700 acting as a key resistance and 84,700 as immediate support. A deeper support is placed near the 84,400 level.
Overall, the structure remains sideways, with no clear directional bias unless SENSEX breaks out of this range.
SENSEX Expected Range Till Expiry
The next SENSEX weekly expiry falls on Thursday, 1st Jan 2026—the first expiry of the new year. The SENSEX ATM straddle closed around 621 points, which is similar to last week’s 636 points straddle premium on Friday, despite last week having one fewer trading session.
With SENSEX spot closing near 85,041, the implied expiry range works out to:
- Upside: 85,041 + 621 = 85,662
- Downside: 85,041 − 621 = 84,420
BANK NIFTY - Technical Analysis
Daily Timeframe
On the daily timeframe, BANKNIFTY closed green on Monday, followed by three consecutive red candles. The index ended the week at 59,011, down 58 points or 0.1% compared to last week’s close.
The weekly range narrowed to 531 points (0.89%), significantly lower than last week’s 820-point range. This marks the second consecutive week of range contraction, with the current week also forming an inside candle.
Support and resistance levels remain unchanged. The 58,700 zone continues to act as a strong support. On the upside, resistance remains intact near the 59,550 zone.
Overall, the trend stays sideways, with BANKNIFTY stuck between 59,550 and 58,700—a range of roughly 850 points.
BANKNIFTY also has its monthly expiry on Tuesday, 30th December.
Hourly Timeframe
On the 1-hour chart with the 50 EMA, BANKNIFTY opened above the EMA on Monday but slipped back below it on Wednesday and stayed there through Friday.
This price action points to a sideways and choppy market, with no clear short-term trend. Short-term trend-following setups continue to struggle in this environment.
Market Metrics Summary
Year-End Performance (CY 2025)
We’re nearing the end of CY 2025, and BANKNIFTY clearly stood out this year. It delivered around 16% returns with a maximum drawdown of just 7.27%.
NIFTY gained about 10% for the year, with a max drawdown of 8.7%. SENSEX ended with roughly 8.8% gains and a similar drawdown profile.
NIFTY MIDCAP had a tough year, managing only 6.32% returns. Most of these gains came in the last three months, where it rose about 9%, but it also saw a much deeper max drawdown of 17.76% in CY 2025.
This week itself remained largely sideways, with NIFTY, BANKNIFTY, and SENSEX moving in a narrow band between +0.3% and -0.1%. MIDCAP NIFTY fell 1% this week.
Sectoral Performance
METAL is clearly shining. It gained 2.71% this week and claimed first place in the top sectors list. It has continued to stay in the top five sectors for the last five weeks in a row. Maybe 2026 is the year of metals—you never know.
There are four new entrants this week: PSE with 2.35%, followed by CPSE with 1.79%, Commodities with 1.2%, and MEDIA at 1.19%.
That’s about it for the sectors.
Volatility & Derivatives
Range & Expiries
NIFTY saw its narrowest day on Wednesday. BANKNIFTY, MIDCPNIFTY, and SENSEX recorded their narrowest range on Tuesday.
NIFTY’s 5-day average range contracted further to 122, down from 147 last week, confirming a consolidation phase. The 10-day average range also shrank sharply, from 178 to 135.
Now, let’s talk about the NIFTY expiry—this week’s NIFTY expiry on Tuesday saw a range of just 114 points, while the opening ATM straddle was priced around 95 points. Apart from the first and last 45 minutes, NIFTY remained largely inactive through the session and ended only 5 points higher than the previous close.
Overall, it was an easy expiry, but the premiums were pretty low to offer good risk-reward trades to sellers.
SENSEX expiry on Wednesday saw a range of 396 points, with the ATM straddle priced around 270 points at the open. The index covered 351 points in just the first hour and then fell nearly 395 points from the day’s high to close 116 points, or 0.14%, lower than the previous day.
Once again, the relatively low premium made it challenging for systematic option sellers, especially for 0DTE trades.
India VIX
INDIAVIX fell another 4% this week, closing near 9.15. With consolidation and range-bound action across indices, VIX is clearly not pricing in any big move right now. However, since VIX is mean-reverting, I feel that in the coming weeks, it is more likely to move higher rather than come down further.
Commodities Update
(Data: MCX Continuous Futures - Back Adjusted)
In the commodity space, Silver continued to lead, up nearly 12% this week and over 140% on a YTD basis.
Copper also saw strong traction, gaining close to 12% for the week, while gold moved up a steadier 3.8%. Crude oil was mildly positive on the week, up around 3.9%, but it continues to remain weak on a medium-term basis and is still negative for the year.
Natural gas bounced about 9.8% this week, but the bigger picture remains weak, with deep drawdowns and negative YTD performance—which is expected with natural gas.
Overall, metals continue to dominate the commodity pack, while energy remains mixed to weak.
Summary & What Caught My Attention
Across NIFTY, SENSEX, and BANKNIFTY, price action stayed range-bound with shrinking ranges and low volatility. Attempts to break out failed, key levels held, and the market showed no clear directional strength on any timeframe.
Option data reflected the same—low premiums, tight expiry ranges, and limited opportunities for both trend followers and option sellers. Sector performance was mixed, with metals standing out while broader participation remained muted.
VIX stayed low, reinforcing the lack of urgency in the market. Overall, it was a quiet, end-of-year week marked by consolidation, patience, and preparation rather than action.
What Caught My Attention This Week
One: I came across this SCMP (South China Morning Post) interview of Singapore’s former foreign minister George Yeo, where he shares his view on the US-China dynamic to the future of Taiwan, and most importantly, why he thinks USD could crack. Worth a read if the geopolitics of the current times interests you.
Two: In a similar vein, I read this article titled “How did China’s trade surplus hit 1 trillion dollars?” You may ask whatever happened to all the tariffs that DJT imposed? That’s exactly what this Al Jazeera article talks about. The thing is—despite the trade war, China has emerged “largely unscathed.” The tariffs essentially changed who China trades with and where they manufacture, but they did not diminish China’s status as the “factory of the world.” Another good read.
What to Expect in the Coming Week
Next week is a transition week between CY 2025 and 2026. It’s a full trading week with no major events lined up.
A Few Housekeeping Things and Announcements
30-Dec-2025, Tuesday is the monthly expiry for NIFTY, BANKNIFTY, and all other NSE Indices and stocks as well.
From 31-Dec-2025 , there will be four new entrants in the F&O segment—Swiggy, Waaree Energies, Premier Energies, and Bajaj Holdings & Investment.
NSE index derivatives are undergoing a revision in lot sizes starting from the 6th Jan 2026 expiry. NIFTY’s lot size will change from 75 to 65, and similar changes apply to other indices. I’ve covered this in detail in a separate video—you’ll find the link in the description below.
The coming week, Friday, 2nd of Jan 2026, is the quarterly settlement day. If you are an active trader, you would need to manage your cash.
Starting from 26th Dec’25 , the auto square-off timings for intraday (MIS) positions have been revised for both equity and F&O segments:
- For equity intraday, timing has been changed to 3:25 PM from 3:20 PM
- For F&O intraday, timing has been changed to 3:26 PM from 3:25 PM
Starting this week , Zerodha Users would instantly, i.e., in 15 minutes, receive margin for their pledged securities, which would earlier take T+1 days.
Lastly, NSE released the official trading holiday calendar for 2026 a couple of weeks back. It’s a good time to go through it at the end of the year and plan your holidays better around long weekends.
And with that, we wrap up this week’s and 2025’s last Weekly Market Metrics.
As we bid goodbye to the year, I am reminded of what Tom Basso says: markets may go up or down, our job is to stay steady and keep going. 2025 was one such year.
So see you all on the other side in 2026 with the next episode of Weekly Market Metrics!
Wishing you all a very happy and prosperous New Year.
If you find this series useful, don’t forget to subscribe to the channel.
Until then—stay curious, stay steady, and enjoy your weekend.