Weekly Trading Diary: 14th to 18th March 2022

A thread for discussing all your trades, strategies, ideas, news, stories, etc.

A recap of market performance in the week ended March 11;

Indian equity benchmarks made a spectacular recovery from weekly low, rising by over 6%, snapping a four week losing streak. Driven by positive sentiment across all sectors, Nifty ended the week up by over 2.4%. While Sensex, 2.2%.

Globally though the markets were in mixed mood. Equity markets in Europe saw a rebound while Asian and US markets ended another week in losses.

Here’s what the institution’s were up to:

Key economic events to watch out for in the week;

14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar
India WPI Inflation (FEB) China Industrial Production (FEB) Japan Industrial Production (JAN) Eurozone CPI Inflation (FEB) Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
CPI Inflation (FEB) Eurozone Industrial Production (FEB) US Feb Interest Rate Decision UK BoE Interest Rate Decision CPI Inflation (FEB)
US PPI (FEB) Retail Sales (FEB) US Jobless Claims US Home Sales (FEB)
Building Permits (FEB)
Industrial Production (FEB)

What are you looking forward to in the coming week? Share below :point_down:


India has been spared (cleanerst dirty shirt) compard to Emerging market doldrums.
China & HK have political risks. Russia has gone bananas. (few weeks ago ₹ & ruble were almost same 72-75 to the $ .when you take all the EM’s where govt 10 years bonds trade above 6.5-7% India’s inflation is ok & is the best stable economy. Nifty is not going to collapse. If USA Federal reserve increases interest rate by 50 bps or 75 /100 bps on march 16th, we will have some fire works in bankNifty . 31500/32000/32500 possible . but since it has come down from 40000, bounce to 37500 possible.

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Can NIFTY courage up the strength to break above and beyond 16800? :innocent:

Benchmark indices carried on their positive momentum for the fifth consecutive session as oil prices fell on hope over Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations.

:oil_drum: Brent Crude: 107.74 -4.09%
:heavy_dollar_sign: USD INR Spot: 76.56 -0.04%
:scroll: India 10Y Bond yield: 6.854 -0.01%

On the sectoral front, Nifty Media and Bank were the top gainers, up by over 2% each, followed by PSU Bank and IT which surged by over 1.9% each. Nifty Realty was the top loser, down by around 1.7%.

Amongst the F&O stocks

:chart_with_upwards_trend: Deepak Nitrite was the top gainer.
:chart_with_downwards_trend: Jubilant FoodWorks was the top loser.

:newspaper: In the news

India’s retail inflation rose marginally in Feb to 6.07%, staying above the upper limit of RBI’s tolerance band. While the inflation based on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) rose to 13.11% YoY in Feb from 12.96% in January.

Jubilant FoodWorks plunged 15% to hit a 52-week low after Pratik Rashmikant Pota stepped down as the CEO and Wholetime Director of the company with effect from June 16, 2022.

RBI has lifted restrictions on the new digital business-generating activities of private lender HDFC Bank under its Digital 2.0 programme, according to an exchange filing.

L&T Construction wins orders in the range of ₹1,000-2,500 cr for its Water & Effluent Treatment Business

India’s merchandise exports grew to 25.10% in Feb to touch $34.57bn, while imports grew by 36.07% YoY to $55.45bn, leaving a trade deficit of $20.88 billion during the month, up from $17.42bn in Jan.

Paytm tumbled more than 12% after the central bank barred the company’s payments bank from taking on new customers and ordered an audit of its IT systems.

:earth_americas: Around the World

The dollar hit a five-year high against the yen on Monday, as traders braced for the U.S. Federal Reserve to begin hiking rates while reckoning the Bank of Japan remains dovish.

The British pound fell to a 16-month low against the U.S dollar ahead of monetary policy updates from the Bank of England and Federal Reserve later in the week. Both the BoE and Fed are seen raising their main interest rates by 25 basis points at their respective meetings.

iPhone supplier Foxconn has suspended manufacturing at its China headquarters and Shenzhen sites due to COVID-19 lockdown in the region, the company said on March 14 as China battles worst Covid-19 outbreak in 2 years.

Nifty and Sensex dropped over 1% ahead of the US Fed Reserve meeting, ending five-day gaining streak. US futures are marginally higher, indicating a positive opening for US markets.

:oil_drum: Brent Crude: 98.39 -7.07%
:heavy_dollar_sign: USD INR Spot: 76.61 +0.07%
:scroll: India 10Y Bond yield: 6.821 -0.48%

Except Nifty Auto and FMCG index posting marginal gains, all the sectoral indices closed lower. Nifty Metal was the top loser, tanking over 4%, followed by IT, Media and Energy, all down by over 2%.

Amongst the F&O stocks

:chart_with_upwards_trend: Bandhan Bank was the top gainer.
:chart_with_downwards_trend: Balrampur Chini Mills was the top loser.

:newspaper: In the news

Retail business in India grew 10% in February this year compared to the sales level in the same month last year, signaling that the sector is inching towards normalcy, the Retailers Association of India (RAI) said on Monday.

Paytm, dropped another 12.7% to hit a fresh 52-week low despite the company providing a strong business update for the ongoing fourth quarter of FY22 as the overhang of restrictions posed by RBI on its payments bank continued to weigh on sentiment.

Granules India says its US Arm gets an establishment inspection report from US FDA for inspection done from Jan 24-28, 2022. Company says there were three minor observations during the inspection and gpi had addressed the observations in the stipulated time period.

Reliance New Energy Solar Limited (RNESL) signed an agreement to acquire assets of US-based Lithium Werks BV at a total transaction value of $61 million. Lithium Werks is a leading provider of cobalt-free, high-performance lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries.

Ruchi Soya Industries surged 18% to Rs 1,140 before closing at 1087, zooming as much as 42% in the past two trading sessions after the company announced plans to launch a Rs 4,300-crore follow-on public offering (FPO) next week.

Indiabulls Housing Finance zoomed following the exit of Sameer Gehlaut from the company; Sameer Gehlaut resigned from the Non-Executive Director post of the non-banking finance company (NBFC), with effect from March 14, 2022. The company also informed that Gagan Banga will remain its CEO.

:earth_americas: Around the World

Berkshire Hathaway reached $500,000 for the first time, reflecting the company’s status as a defensive stock in a market unsettled by Ukraine’s events and increasing inflation. Berkshire’s Class A shares are up 10% in 2022, outpacing the S&P’s 500 index, which is down 12%.

Prime Minister of Spain, Pedro Sanchez said will announce a series of tax breaks later this month to mitigate the economic consequences of the Ukrainian war.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, has corrected 30% from the top breaching $100 per barrel as concerns over disruption to supplies from the Russian invasion of Ukraine eased.

Good morning Folks

tough mrkts to trade as expected. with yesterday’s trending reversal day was followed by a massive gap up.

As long as we are above 16820-840 zones, we should do okay in nifty, with fed’s fomc event later in the evng, we may have a major gap up/down. markets are therefore in the calm before the storm - waiting mode.

ill be watching the 16800-850 zone today in nifty and focus on stock specific bets. I feel energy stocks are the place to be in, this geopolitical tension is far from over.

Benchmark indices extended their gains for the second straight day, climbing nearly 2% following global cues. US markets too look set for a positive start, as futures trade higher.

:oil_drum: Brent Crude: 99.15 +0.47%
:heavy_dollar_sign: USD INR Spot: 76.26 -0.45%
:scroll: India 10Y Bond yield: 6.791 -0.44%

All sectoral indices finished the day in the green. Nifty Realty led the way with a 3.64% gain, followed by the Nifty Metal, Auto, and Bank sectors each gaining more than 2%.

Amongst the F&O stocks

:chart_with_upwards_trend: JK Cement was the top gainer.
:chart_with_downwards_trend: Mphasis was the top loser.

:newspaper: In the news

Jet fuel or ATF prices saw it’s steepest all-time hike as rates increased by 18.32% to record Rs. 1,10,666.26 per kl from Rs. 93,530.66 per kl, according to a price notification issued by state-owned fuel retailers. The rate surged past the Rs. 1 lakh per kl mark for the first time.

TCS has won a contract from Singapore Stock Exchange to run trading and settlement platforms for the upcoming SGX Nifty Exchange at International Financial Services Center in Gandhinagar.

Indian state fuel retailers posted robust growth as diesel sales jump 32.8% In first-half of March, as consumers stock up on fuel rate hike expectations.

Tata Communications and Formula 1 announced a multi-year strategic collaboration that will enable Formula 1 to broadcast to more than 500 million fans in more than 180 territories globally.

:earth_americas: Around the World

Saudi Arabia’s GDP expanded 1.6% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous three months, as high oil prices helped the kingdom recover from the impact of the pandemic.

The euro jumped on Wednesday and was set for its third consecutive daily gains versus the dollar on Wednesday after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said peace talks with Ukraine were not easy but there was hope for compromise.

Japan reported a wider-than-expected trade deficit in February as an energy-driven surge in import costs caused by massive supply constraints added to vulnerabilities for the world’s third-largest economy.

Hang Seng index surged 9% after a senior Chinese official said Beijing would provide more support for the slowing Chinese economy. The surge comes as a relief after recent heavy selling of Chinese tech companies and other pressures that had taken the Hang Seng to six-year lows.

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Yesterday 16800-850 zones didn’t breach and today we may have a massive gap up near 17250 zones.

How do i see markets from here? Stock specific and mid n small cap outperformance. And strategy now changes to buy the big dips from sell the big rise.

I’m super bullish on energy as a theme.

Nifty and Sensex rose 1.84% despite the US Federal Reserve hiking interest rates in line to the global market rally. Dow and Nasdaq futures indicate positive opening for US markets.

:oil_drum: Brent Crude: 104.15 +6.25%
:heavy_dollar_sign: USD INR Spot: 75.81 -0.28%
:scroll: India 10Y Bond yield: 6.778 -0.15%

Nifty Realty was the top gainer for second day running, surging around 3.1%. Nifty IT was the only sectoral index closing on the lower side, marginally down by 0.24%.

Amongst the F&O stocks

:chart_with_upwards_trend: GNFC was the top gainer.
:chart_with_downwards_trend: ABB India was the top loser.

:newspaper: In the news

Moody’s on Thursday slashed India’s growth estimate for the current year to 9.1%, from 9.5% earlier, saying high fuel and fertilizer import bill could limit the government’s capital expenditure.

OPEC in its latest monthly oil market report projected India’s oil demand to jump by 8.2% to 5.15 million barrels per day in 2022 as the economy continues to rebound from the devastation caused by the pandemic.

Sugar exports have jumped over 2.5 fold between Oct2021 and Feb this year to 47 lakh tonnes on higher production and better demand of the Indian sweetener in the global market, according to industry body ISMA.

Brookfield to pick up minority stake in packaging films biz of Jindal Poly Films. JPFL will carve out its packaging films business into a wholly owned subsidiary and the Canadian investment giant will make an investment of Rs 2,000 crore.

:earth_americas: Around the World

The Federal Reserve launched a high-risk effort to tame the worst inflation since the 1970s, raising its benchmark short-term interest rate by 25 bps and signaling potentially up to seven rate hikes this year.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England raised interest rates to 0.75% on Thursday for a third meeting running, but softened its language on the need for further increases from here.

Bond sales in the United States have ground to a halt after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As after BNPL lender Affirm, Tesla delayed its $1bn offering of bonds backed by leases on its electric vehicles.

India (clean dirty shirt) has been saved compared to the emerging market recession.
There are political dangers for China & HK. Russia Banana is gone. (If the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 50 bps or 75/100 bps on March 16, we could do some fire work on bankNifty.