Weekly Trading Diary: 24th to 28th January 2022

Tradingqna · January 23, 2022, 11:40am

A thread for discussing all your trades, strategies, ideas, news, stories, etc.

It was a bad week for equity markets around the world. Sensex shed 2185 points to end the week down by -3.6%, while Nifty gave up 638 points, down by 3.5% for the week, ending a four-week gaining streak.

Globally, amongst the major markets, only Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite Index managed to end the week on a positive note. US markets, S&P and Nasdaq suffered their worst week since the pandemic began, tumbling -5.7% and -7.55%.

Nifty Energy was the only sector that managed to post-minimal gains for the week, while all other sectors ended up in red. Pharma -7.1% and Pharma 5.2% were the top draggers.

Things to watch out for in the week:

IPOs

Adani Wilmar’s Rs. 3,600 crore IPO will option for subscription on 27th January, with a price band set between Rs. 218 - 230. The IPO will close on 31st January. More details on the Adani Wilmar IPO here: Everything You Need to Know About the Adani Wilmar IPO

Corporate earnings to watch for:

24th Jan	25th Jan	26th Jan	27th Jan	28th Jan	29th Jan
Axis Bank Limited	Maruti Suzuki	-	Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited	Atul Limited	IDFC First Bank
Burger King India	Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC		Birla Soft	AU Small Finance Bank	IndusInd Bank
Craftsman Automation	Can Fin Homes		Canara Bank	Bharat Electronics	NTPC
Deepak Nitrite	Cipla		Colgate Palmolive	Britannia Industries
Indian Energy Exchange	Federal Bank		Fino Payments Bank	Central Bank of India
HDFC AMC	Indiabulls Real Estate		Indus Towers Limited	Dixon Technologies
SBI Cards and Payment Services	United Spirits		Laurus Labs	Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories
Shriram Transport Finance	Pidilite Industries		C.E. Info Systems	Happiest Minds Technologies
	SRF Limited		Nippon Life India AMC	Kotak Mahindra Bank
	Star Cement		Punjab National Bank	Larsen & Toubro Limited
	Torrent Pharma		RBL Bank	Marico
				Max Financial Services
				Info Edge
				Strides Pharma
				United Breweries
				Vedanta

Key economic events for the week:

	24th Jan		25th Jan		26th Jan		27th Jan		28th Jan
USA	Manufacturing PMI (JAN)	USA	Consumer Confidence (JAN)	USA	Goods Trade Balance (DEC)	USA	Fed Interest Rate Decision	Japan	Core CPI
	Services PMI (JAN)				Home Sales (DEC)		FOMC Statement	Germany	GDP (Q4)
Japan	Services PMI (JAN)				Crude Oil Inventories		GDP (Q4)
Eurozone	Manufacturing PMI (JAN)						Jobless Claims
	Markit Composite PMI (JAN)
	Services PMI (JAN)
Britain	Manufacturing PMI (JAN)
	Services PMI (JAN)
	Composite PMI (JAN)

What are you looking forward to the coming week? Share below

Prakashsingh · January 24, 2022, 4:49am

Good Morning frnds

Looks like a perfect storm to begin the week leading to budget.

CMP 17405

it has been 240 points since my buy zone is activated in nifty , I will be not be adding fresh feb longs in index as there are better opportunities in stocks

Ill look for stock specific bullish bets. esp in financials.

will update the thread.

t7support · January 24, 2022, 6:54am

It’s a free fall. This is what I love about trading as opposed to investing. In trading we can make money when market goes up or down. With investing we make money only when market goes up.

anon75004691 · January 24, 2022, 7:00am

DII’s have stopped supporting the market apparently. Look at the stark difference in the buying vs selling.

Prakashsingh · January 24, 2022, 7:49am

Put Call Ratio is now reaching Over Sold region. Midcaps are crushed like there’s no tomorrow.

Hearing from trading circle members that market may also be cautious going forward due to a possibility of raising LTCG to 15% and introduction of wealth tax

t7support · January 24, 2022, 9:23am

I hope when govt brings wealth tax (right fully so) it reduces or abolishes income tax

Tradingqna · January 24, 2022, 1:13pm

Markets witnessed a brutal sell-off today amid weak global cues. Extending the losses for fifth straight session. Dow and Nasdaq futures are trading down, indicating a negative start for US markets.

Brent Crude: 86.79 -0.33%
USD-INR Spot: 74.56 +0.19%
India 10Y bond yield: 6.655% +0.53%

Day’s trend:

All sectoral indices were under selling pressure. Nifty Realty and Metal were the top losers, down by over -5% each.

Amongst the F&O stocks

Bandhan Bank was the top gainer.
Astral was was the top loser.

Earnings Update:

Reliance reported 37.9% YoY rise in net profit at Rs. 20,539 cr for Dec quarter, with Retail segment clocking 23% jump in YoY profits and Telecom segment 8.9%.

ICICI Bank reported 25% YoY rise in net profit at Rs. 6,194 cr for Q3FY22, compared to profit of Rs. 4,940 cr in the corresponding quarter last year.

Axis Bank reported 224% YoY jump in net profit at Rs. 3,614 cr in Q3FY22. Net Interest Income grew 17% YoY.

In the news

BSE IPO index plunged by -7% as Zomato, Nykaa, PolicyBazaar, MapMyIndia tanked between 10-20%.

Tube Investments of India (TII) will acquire 70% stake in start-up Cellestial E-Mobility for Rs 161 crore.

Air India likely to be handed over to Tata group by 27th Jan. Tata group will also be handed over Air India Express and a 50% stake in ground handling arm Air India SATS.

Prakashsingh · January 25, 2022, 3:27am

US markets staged a roaring comeback yesterday. They were down by 3.5-4% percent at one point. Closed in green.

The recovery started once the news came in that Russian Ambassador to US denied the reports embassy in washington has begun to evacuate with respect to Ukraine Russia situation.

This might have been one of the unexplained reason why our markets fell so hard because the bond yield story and fed rate hike news has been around for lot of time.

Expecting some sanity to return to markets today. Strategy would to buy the big dip and sell the rapid rise.

Prakashsingh · January 25, 2022, 10:25am

Sanity has slightly returned to the markets. Making a swift comeback from 16830 zones to almost 17300.

Till the budget event, we may trade in the range of 17200 -700 after which market may choose to decide which direction to go.

Financials were fired up as expected. Much more to go me thinks.

Tradingqna · January 25, 2022, 12:57pm

Nifty and Sensex recovered by over 2.5% from days low to close on a positive note. Breaking 5 day losing streak. US markets look set for a lower start.

Brent Crude: 86.16 +0.85%

USD-INR Spot: 74.775 +0.29%

India 10Y bond yield: 6.663% +0.17%

All sectoral indices except Nifty IT closed the day in green. Nifty PSU Bank was the highest gainer, surging over 4.25%. Followed by Nifty Auto, Media, Bank, all rising by over 2% each.

Amongst the F&O stocks

Maruti Suzuki was the top gainer.
IndiaMart was the top loser.

Earnings Update:

Maruti Suzuki’s net profit came in at Rs 1,011 cr, down 47.90% YoY. Revenue came in at Rs. 22,187 cr against Rs. 22,236 cr in the corresponding quarter last year.

Pidilite reported net profit of Rs 359.2 cr, down 19.5% YoY. Revenue increased by 24% YoY at Rs. 2,850.7 cr. vs Rs 2,299 crore at the end of Q3FY21.

Federal Bank reported 29% rise in net profit at Rs. 522 cr. for Q3FY22 owing to fall in provisions by nearly half.

In the news

Independent directors of Future Retail Ltd. accepted Reliance’s bailout offer, rejecting Amazon’s offer for investment in FRL.

Bharti Airtel’s board will meet on January 28, to consider raising funds via a preferential share issue to investors other than its promoter group.

BPCL to invest Rs 10,000 cr in 6 new city gas licenses. BPCL won licenses to retail CNG to automobiles and piped natural gas for cooking purposes in six geographical areas in the latest bidding round of PNGRB.

Around the world

Singapore’s central bank tightened its monetary policy in its first out-of-cycle move in seven years, as global supply constraints and brisk economic demand elevate inflation pressures across the region.

South Korea’s economy expanded at the fastest pace in 11 years in 2021 helped by a jump in exports and construction activity, tempering declines in capital investment and a slow recovery in the coronavirus-hit service sectors.

Nvidia is preparing to abandon its purchase of Arm from SoftBank after offering about $40 billion for the British company in 2020.

Prakashsingh · January 27, 2022, 3:25am

Good Morning folks,

It looks we will have a tough opening today as it points to a 300-350 point downtick . It looks like market has found the fed’s commentary a bit more hawkish than expected.

One statement which I feel market noted the most was Fed Chief’s comment that decline in asset prices do not represent a financial stability risk and that there is lot of scope to increase rates.

We will again be nearing tuesday’s lows, but one thing’s for sure , this market is tough for overnight longs thats the pattern thats clearly visible now.

So, lets see what happens today. My strategy is buy the big dips and sell it intraday at highs.

I’ll look to buy around 16850-880 zones

Update : Today’s move i think is going to be based on expiry. lets see whether 17000 PE writers get it or they give up and take the market much lower. thats the main question for the day

Prakashsingh · January 27, 2022, 11:51am

Low was 16866 and high was around 17182 from this level. Must say I got lucky today.

This strategy too worked and may continue till budget after which the market sentiment might change.

PE writers did the trick today. Good results by canara etc helped as well lifting bank nifty with sentiment.

Tradingqna · January 27, 2022, 1:11pm

Markets recovered from the day’s lows after a gap down opening to close the day down by a percent. US markets look set for a positive opening.

Brent Crude: 88.93 +0.21%

USD-INR Spot: 75.07 +0.39%

India 10Y bond yield: 6.749 +1.31%

Most of the sectoral indices ended the session in red. Nifty PSU Bank index was the top gainer, as it surged over 5%. Nifty IT was the top loser, sliding by over 3.5%.

Amongst the F&O stocks

Canara Bank was the top gainer.
Torrent Pharma tanked 15% following weak Q3 performance.

Earnings Update:

BHEL’s net profit came in at Rs. 27 cr vs loss of Rs. 218 cr YoY. EBITDA at Rs. 88.2 cr vs EBITDA loss of Rs. 180.8 cr YoY.

Arvind’s net profit came in at Rs. 92.8 cr vs Rs. 24.9 cr YoY. EBITDA shot up 46.1% at Rs. 236.8 cr vs Rs. 162.1 cr YoY.

Canara Bank’s net profit more than doubled on a YoY based. The bank reported net profit of Rs. 1502.1 cr vs 696.1 cr YoY. Loan growth came in at 9.1% year-on-year.

SRF’s consolidated net profit rose 55.68% to Rs. 505.54 cr on 55.64% rise in net sales to Rs. 3314.14 crore in Q3FY22 over Q3FY21.

Colgate-Palmolive reported a 1.6% rise in its net profit to Rs. 252.33 cr for Q3FY22 compared to net profit of Rs. 248.36 cr in Q3FY21. Revenue increased 3.84% to Rs. 1,271.29 cr, against Rs. 1,224.21 cr in the year-ago period.

In the news

L&T signed a pact with Norway-based HydrogenPro AS to set up a manufacturing unit in India that aims to tap opportunities in green hydrogen space in the country and other geographies

Essar Group announced it has formed a joint venture with the UK’s Progressive Energy to invest £1bn in building hydrogen manufacturing unit at its Essar Stanlow refinery complex.

Shares of TV18 Broadcast were locked in 20% upper circuit following reports that Uday Shankar and James Murdoch eye to pick up a significant stake in Viacom18.

Around the world

The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that it expects to raise interest rates in March and that it will also stop its bond-buying program in March.

The IMF downgraded its 2022 global growth forecast by half a percentage point, to 4.4%, due to lower expectations for the U.S. and China.

Tradingqna · January 28, 2022, 12:55pm

Benchmark indices stumbled from days highs to close in negative territory. For the week, Sensex is down 3.25% while Nifty 2.9%

US markets look set for weak opening as futures trade lower

Brent Crude: 88.9 +0.83

USD-INR Spot: 75.026 -0.26%

India 10Y bond yield: 6.770% +0.36%

Majority of sectoral indices closed the day in green. Nifty IT and Pharma were the top gainers, both surging over 1%. Nifty Bank was the top loser, down by 0.77%.

Amongst the F&O stocks

LIC Housing Finance surged over 11% after posting strong Q3 results.
While Chambal Fertilisers declined over 4.8% after poor Q3 performance.

Earnings Update:

Dr. Reddy’s reported net profit of Rs. 706.5 cr for Q3FY22 a rise of 25 times over same period in previous Fiscal. Revenue was at Rs. 5,319.7 cr against Rs. 4,929.6 cr in Q3FY21.

Kotak Mahindra Bank reported 15% YoY rise in standalone net profits at Rs. 2,131 cr. NII for the quarter rose 11.08% YoY while NIM for Q3FY22 can at 4.63%.

PNB reported two-fold jump in standalone net profit at Rs. 1,126.78 cr for Q3FY22. Operating margin declined to 23.05% in Q3FY22 against 26.62 in same quarter previous Fiscal.

In the news

Zomato announced plans to set-up an NBFC in bid to enter financial services business. And will invest in two more startups.

Google will invest up to $1 billion Bharti Airtel. The deal includes Google investing $700m to acquire 1.28% stake in Airtel and up to $300m towards potential multi-year commercial agreements.

Around the world

DBS Group is set to buy Citi Group’s consumer business in Taiwan in a move that will see the Singapore-based bank pay $706.6m above the net asset value, making it Taiwan’s largest foreign bank by assets.

Chinese authorities are considering dismantling embattled property developer China Evergrande, in a bid to prevent a disorderly collapse from roiling the nation’s financial markets and economy.